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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
New York Yankees
The New York Yankees have featured one of the best offenses in the MLB this season. They rank second in the league in runs scored and home runs, fourth in team batting average, and third in OPS through 102 games. New York has been better on the road, but they are still hitting .265 with a .463 slugging percentage and a .800 OPS through 55 home games this season. They are averaging 5.3 runs and 3.1 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Yankees are -122 favorites in a game set at 11 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.8 runs.
New York gets a great matchup against Andrew Cashner, who has seen plenty of ups and downs through 19 starts this season. In those starts, he owns a 9-5 record with a 4.19 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. He has also posted a 4.94 xFIP and a 5.03 SIERA in those games. Cashner has given up 34.2% fly ball and 13% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also allowed his opponents to record a 36.4% hard hit rate this season, while posting only a 14.2% soft hit rate. He brings 16.7% strikeout and 8.7% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Cashner has been a reverse splits pitcher in 2019, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .276 average with a .514 slugging percentage and a .350 wOBA. He has only thrown in Boston twice this season, allowing 9 runs (8 earned runs) with 3 home runs over 10 innings pitched. Cashner gets a matchup against one of the best offenses in the MLB that is loaded with right-handed batters, while he’s throwing in a relatively hitter friendly stadium. New York makes the safest stacking option on this slate.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Los Angeles Angels
The Los Angeles Angels have been an above average offense through 104 games this season. They currently rank ninth in the MLB in runs scored, 12th in home runs, and 10th in team batting average and OPS. The Angels have featured a slightly better offense at home, where they boast a .256 average with a .450 slugging percentage and a .788 OPS. They are also averaging 5.3 runs and 3.3 extra-base hits per game through 51 home games in 2019. They are -210 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs tonight, and they feature an implied run total of 5.7 runs.
The Angels get a matchup against Asher Wojciechowski, who has only thrown in five games (four starts) this season. He has thrown well, posting a 1-3 record with a 3.91 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in those games. He has also recorded a 4.18 xFIP and a 3.50 SIERA. Wojciechowski has struggled with the long ball, allowing his opponents to post 53.7% fly ball and 13.8% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also given up a 42.6% hard hit rate this season, while posting only a 13% soft hit rate. He brings 33% strikeout and 16.8% swinging strike rates into this game, but he’s due for obvious regression on that end. Wojciechowski has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to post a .250 average with a .575 slugging percentage and a .386 wOBA this season. He has also struggled more on the road in 2019, giving up a .237/.526/.352 line in those innings. Wojciechowski is due for major regression against left-handed batters, as well, as he owns a 6.36 xFIP against that side of the plate. Overall, I don’t expect him to continue to find extended success, and a matchup against a team that doesn’t strikeout is the first step toward that regression.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers are another dominant offense, as they rank fourth in the MLB in runs scored, third in home runs, seventh in team batting average, and fifth in OPS through 104 games. They have found more success in Los Angeles, but have still posted a .254 average with a .454 slugging percentage and a .795 OPS through 50 road games in 2019. They are also averaging 5.5 runs and 3.7 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Tonight, the Dodgers are -160 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs, and they own an implied run total of 5.4 runs.
Anibal Sanchez will be taking the mound for the Washington Nationals tonight. He enters this game with a 6-6 record, 3.80 ERA, and 1.35 WHIP through 18 starts. He’s due for quite a bit of regression, though, as he also owns 5.20 xFIP and a 5.13 SIERA in those starts. Sanchez has given up a 39.5% fly ball rate, although he has held his opponents to a 12.2% HR/FB rate this season. Surprisingly, his opponents have only recorded a 31.1% hard hit rate against him, while he owns a 19.6% soft hit rate. He owns 19.4% strikeout and 9.8% swinging strike rates in 2019. Sanchez has struggled most against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .259 average with a .494 slugging percentage and a .342 wOBA. He has also given up 32% fly ball and 23.1% HR/FB rates to left-handed batters this season. The Dodgers feature a plethora of outstanding left-handed power bats, making them one of the highest upside stacks on the slate.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Joey Lucchesi
Lucchesi has thrown relatively well through 19 starts this season, posting a 7-5 record with a 4.27 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. He has recorded a 4.25 xFIP and a 4.35 SIERA this season, as well. He enters this game with 35.2% fly ball and 13.1% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also given up a 34.5% hard hit rate to go along with a 16.6% soft hit rate this season. Lucchesi brings 22.6% strikeout and 11.3% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. He’s a -138 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 4.4 runs.
Lucchesi gets a matchup against the San Francisco Giants, who rank fifth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking last in team wOBA. Lucchesi has been slightly better against left-handed batters, holding them to a .241 average with a .379 slugging percentage and a .287 wOBA. He has held his opponents to a .194/.328/.255 line at home, as well. Lucchesi has been an elite option at home, and this is an ideal matchup for him tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Tom Murphy
Murphy is only hitting .229 with a .371 slugging percentage and a .642 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns three extra-base hits (one home run) and four RBIs in those games. Murphy has also posted 46% hard hit and 33% fly ball rates to go along with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has been at his best against left-handed pitching, bringing 0.122 wOBA and 0.053 ISO differentials against lefties into this game.
Murphy gets a great matchup against Daniel Norris, who brings a 4.54 xFIP and a 4.64 SIERA into this game. He has struggled against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .298 average with a .468 slugging percentage and a .339 wOBA. He has also allowed his opponents to post a .305/.504/.360 line against him on the road this season. Murphy is expected to hit fifth in the Seattle Mariners lineup, and he makes a solid salary relief in all leagues tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
