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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Los Angeles Angels
The Los Angeles Angels have found above average offensive success in 2019, ranking 11th in the MLB in runs scored, 12th in home runs, 10th in team batting average, and ninth in OPS through 103 games. Los Angeles has found more success at home this season, where they boast a .258 average with a .455 slugging percentage and a .793 OPS through 50 games. They are averaging 5.2 runs and 3.3 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Angels are -225 favorites in a game set at 10 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.1 runs.
Los Angeles gets an elite matchup against Jimmy Yacabonis, who has struggled through 23 games (2 starts this season). He owns a 1-2 record with a 6.95 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP in those games. He has also struggled with a 5.73 xFIP and a 5.00 SIERA in 2019. Yacabonis enters this game with 43.6% fly ball and 16.7% HR/FB rates, as well. He has given up a 39.1% soft hit rate, while recording an 18.2% soft hit rate this season. He also brings 18.7% strikeout and 9.5% swinging strike rates into this game. Yacabonis has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .304 average with a .652 slugging percentage and a .417 wOBA. He is allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .301/.505/.372 line in 2019, as well. Furthermore, Yacabonis has given up a .250/.472/.340 line on the road this season. Los Angeles features an offense that doesn’t strikeout at a high rate, and Yacabonis’ inability to limit his opponents power will put them in the best spot on this smaller slate.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Cleveland Indians
The Cleveland Indians have seen mixed results this season, but they have looked outstanding since the All Star Break. Still, they rank 21st in the MLB in runs scored, 20th in home runs and team batting average, and 19th in OPS through 101 games. They have found slightly more success on the road, where they are hitting .251 average with a .426 slugging percentage and a .749 OPS through 48 games away from home. The Indians are also averaging 4.5 runs and 3.3 extra-base hits per game in those contests. They are -143 favorites in a game set at 10 runs, and they own one of the higher implied run totals on this slate at 5.5 runs.
Mike Montgomery will be taking the mound for the Kansas City Royals tonight. He has posted a 1-3 record with a 6.83 ERA and a 1.86 WHIP through 21 games (1 start). He owns a 4.81 xFIP and a 5.23 SIERA in those games. Montgomery has held his opponents to a 23% fly ball rate this season, while giving up a 30.4% HR/FB rate. He has also allowed his opponents to record a 42.6% hard hit rate against him, while recording only a 9.9% soft hit rate in 2019. He has struggled with 14.2% strikeout and 8.1% swinging strike rates this season, as well. Montgomery has seen limited innings against left-handed batters, but they are hitting for a .512 average with a .927 slugging percentage and a .582 wOBA against him. He has also given up a .260/.494/.353 line to right-handed batters in 2019. Cleveland is likely to go overlooked tonight, but they make an elite stack in this matchup.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Brett Anderson
Anderson has found quite a bit of success through 20 starts this season, posting a 9-5 record with a 3.82 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. He also owns a 4.99 xFIP and a 5.34 SIERA in those games. Anderson has also held his opponents to 26.8% fly ball and 13.7% HR/FB rates this season. He has given up a 38.2% hard hit rate with a 16% soft hit rate. Anderson also brings 11.8% strikeout and 7.4% swinging strike rates into this game. He’s a -175 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 3.9 runs tonight.
Anderson gets a matchup against the Texas Rangers, who rank second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They have been a significantly worse offense on the road in 2019, as well. Anderson has been better against left-handed batters, holding them to a .240 average with a .365 slugging percentage and a .293 wOBA. It’s a smaller slate, and Anderson is likely the lowest pitcher I’m willing to play tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Harold Castro
Castro has cooled off a bit recently, but he’s still hitting .267 with a .400 slugging percentage and a .661 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns four extra-base hits (one home run) and five RBIs in those games. Castro also possesses a 37% hard hit rate with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He brings 0.148 wOBA and 0.123 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game, as well.
Castro gets a plus matchup against Erik Swanson, who enters this game with a 5.10 xFIP and a 4.83 SIERA. He has struggled with 42.3% fly ball and 25% HR/FB rates in 2019, as well. Swanson has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .303 average with a .605 slugging percentage and a .386 wOBA. Castro is expected to hit second in the Detroit Tigers lineup, and he can be considered in all leagues tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
