Pitchers
Patrick Corbin- Corbin has been one of the most interesting pitchers in the league this season, but over the last 30 days he owns a a 2.87 SIERA with 33% strikeouts…truly, he’s rounded into top form. He’s always allowed a lot of hard-contact, but he is still able to get strikeouts to both sides of the plate and he has an elite matchup with the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies basically become the Marlins on the road — they feature the lowest wRC+ in the league away from Coors this season with a massive 28% strikeout rate as a team. Overall, I expect the next pitcher listed to be the chalkiest choice at SP tonight, but the matchup is too good for me to pass up for Corbin and he remains my top play in all formats, hopefully at suppressed ownership.
Noah Syndergaard- Thor is not someone I typically play in DFS, given that he is usually priced like an ace, but lacks ace-like metrics (24% strikeouts for example). He’s coming off two huge games against bad opponents, and he has another positive matchup with the San Diego Padres tonight at home in Citi Field. It’s not a stretch to think that those big starts were due to the level of competition, but if you use that argument then it’s also not a stretch to think that he can repeat against a team with a 26% strikeout rate as a team against righties (2nd most in the MLB). I dug into his performances over his last two starts, and he upped his slider usage in each start. His slider can be a dominant pitch, so it’s noteworthy that he threw it 18% and 25% of the time in those two starts after barely throwing it all in some starts prior. Unfortunately, I can’t accurately predict whether or not those changes will stick tonight. Regardless, I do think he makes sense in this matchup, but if ends up being the most popular option (which I think he will be) I’m going to be underweight.
Reynaldo Lopez/Zac Gallen- We are presented two strong mid-tier SP2 options squaring off in the same game in Reynaldo Lopez and Zac Gallen. Lopez is someone that has always had elite ability, but it seems like he is learning to pitch more down the stretch of this season and he’s really been putting things together. He obviously gets one of the best matchups on the slate with the Marlins, and I have him as the top choice as an SP2 in all formats. He has a 25% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season, and should see six or seven of them tonight. I’m a big Gallen fan, and I personally will be using him as a GPP pivot off of Lopez in GPPs. He’s remained strong in the strikeout department throughout his first few starts in the majors, but over the last two starts he has walked a total of 9 batters…a concern for someone who did not show control issues in the minor leagues. Either way, the White Sox are not a patient offense so the walks shouldn’t bite him tonight, and with Lopez expected to be popular, Gallen is a high-upside pivot.
GPP Pivot: Shane Bieber
Building Blocks
Anthony Rendon- Rendon being my top play on the slate should come as no surprise given his matchup with Kyle Freeland. Freeland has had a disaster of a season for the Rockies, posting a 5.12 SIERA. His obvious weakness has been to righties, where he owns a 5.43 xFIP with 45% hard hits allowed. This is a dream spot for Rendon and his .320 ISO with 51% hard hits to left-handed batters. He is a priority for me in cash games tonight on all sites.
Paul Goldschmidt- Oh boy, is he finally back? After literally over a month of seemingly locking him in every night, Goldy has started this week off with two homers! For a while, the batted ball data suggested that he would eventually go on an offensive run, and that may be what’s happening now. His numbers against right-handed pitching don’t jump off the page this season, but his .326 wOBA comes with a near .400 xwOBA, 47% hard hits and the second-highest average exit velocity in this Cardinals lineup. He is still relatively cheap for what we know he can do, and I consider him a great play in all formats tonight.
Jason Kipnis- If we plan on playing Rendon and Goldy, we will need some savings and those can come with Jason Kipnis tonight. I’ve been spending down at second base regularly in MLB DFS over the last few months, mostly with Jose Altuve (LOL), but tonight we get Kipnis at $3,300 on DraftKings, and he should be a bit lower-owned than the cheaper Robinson Cano who is coming off of a triple dong performance last night. Kipnis advanced metrics don’t look amazing, but he should remain locked into the cleanup spot for this Indians lineup and the numbers are boosted by a 40% hard hit rate with 39% fly balls. Those fly balls can come in handy against the ground ball tendencies of Stroman, and Kipnis also matches up well with Stro’s pitch mix. He boasts a .440 xwOBA with over a .200 ISO against sinkers over the last two seasons, Stroman’s most-used pitch against left-handed batters.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
