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Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Jordan Lyles
Jordan Lyles has seen mixed results in 2019, posting a 5-6 record with a 4.91 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. His overall numbers aren’t much of a concern, though, as this is a very specific matchup-based play. Lyles has looked outstanding against right-handed batters, holding them to a 3.84 xFIP this season. He has held righties to 34.1% fly ball and 13.3% HR/FB rates in 2019. Furthermore, they have posted only a 34.3% hard hit rate against him, while he has recorded a 19.4% soft hit rate. Lyles also boasts a 26.1% strikeout rate against right-handed batters this season. The majority of the best hitters for the St. Louis Cardinals stand on the right side of the plate, giving Lyles an edge. He held St. Louis to one earned run, while posting six strikeouts over six innings in their only matchup this season. He’s absurdly cheap on this slate, and he makes an outstanding option.
Jason’s Reaction: I love Lyles upside tonight, especially considering he has one of the higher strikeout predictions with a rather low price tag.
Jason’s Pick: Patrick Corbin
Patrick Corbin gets a great matchup tonight against the strikeout-prone Colorado Rockies. The Rockies are one of the best offenses in the league, but only when playing in Coors Field. Tonight, the Washington Nationals are home. The Rockies strikeout 0.285 times per at-bat, and Corbin has a strikeout prediction over nine. This is, admittedly, expected to be a rather high-scoring affair, as Vegas has the line set at 10 total runs. The Nationals are -207 betting favorites, giving the Rockies an implied run total of 4.1. As long as Corbin can keep the runs to a minimum, he should find plenty of success. He doesn’t need a shutout to hit value, as long as his strikeout pitches are working. He’s the most expensive pitching option on tonight’s slate, but for good reason. Noah Syndergaard makes more sense in cash games, though.
Justin’s Reaction: I’ll play nearly any pitcher against the Rockies outside of Colorado. I like that quite a bit. With that being said, I’d likely lean Shane Bieber over him.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Max Muncy
Max Muncy has been playing well recently, posting a .289 average with a .711 slugging percentage and a 1.111 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts six extra-base hits (five home runs) and nine RBIs over that span, as well. He owns 38% hard hit and 42% fly ball rates with a 92 MPH exit velocity in those contests. Muncy gets a plus matchup against Jaime Barria, who has struggled with home runs this season. The former has also found plenty of success against right-handed pitching, as he brings 0.071 wOBA and 0.079 ISO differentials against righties into this game. Muncy is expected to hit fifth in the Los Angeles Dodgers’ lineup, and he makes an elite option at second base tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: Second base is a tough position to find upside at. Muncy delivers that upside for a reasonable price tag.
Jason’s Pick: Joc Pederson
Speaking of the Los Angeles Dodgers, Joc Pederson is one of the best options available tonight in tournaments. His first base eligibility makes him especially valuable, as he possesses outfielder upside at an outfielder price tag, but with infield rosterability. Jaime Barria is on the mound for the Los Angeles Angels, and Pederson will take advantage of the right-handed matchup. He enters tonight’s game with 0.180 ISO and 0.111 wOBA differentials. It is rare that a hitter with so much power finds himself in the leadoff spot, but that is where Pederson is expected to hit. In the last 15 days, his advanced metrics are great, as well. He has an average batted ball distance of 241 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate over 50%, and a hard hit rate much the same. He has plenty of upside, and for his price tag, he can be rostered in all leagues.
Justin’s Reaction: I can get behind Pederson. He makes an outstanding option in tournaments on this slate, especially to pair with Muncy.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Mike Trout
Since I love saving at pitcher, and tonight features plenty of cheap options, I’m opting to spend up on Mike Trout. He has recorded a .305 average with a .972 slugging percentage and a 1.368 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 10 extra-base hits (7 home runs) and 17 RBIs over that span. Trout enters this game with 45% hard hit and 40% line drive rates to go along with a 96 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He gets a tough matchup against Ross Stripling, but that could keep his ownership relatively low. Trout has been significantly better against right-handed pitching, as he brings 0.084 wOBA and 0.139 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. He’s hitting second in the Los Angeles Angels lineup, and he can be used in all leagues tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: I’ll recommend Trout over and over again until he stops hitting home runs and stealing bases every single game.
Jason’s Pick: Michael Conforto
Michael Conforto gets a good matchup tonight against the San Diego Padres and Dinelson Lamet. There is no denying that Conforto has been average-at-best this season for the New York Mets, but over his last 10 games, his batting average is slightly higher than normal at .268, and he has 2 home runs. He enters tonight’s game with 0.021 ISO and 0.057 wOBA differentials, so the power splits are there. Finally, his advanced metrics backup his successes of recent. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 256 feet, an average exit velocity on batted balls of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate over 55%, and a hard hit rate over 40%. These numbers suggest, especially when combined with power the likes of Conforto’s, that more home runs are bound to come soon. Fantasy owners will want to hop on the Conforto train now before it gets rolling too fast.
Justin’s Reaction: Conforto was one of my favorite plays, and I may have recommended him if it wasn’t for Trout. Feel free to use him in all leagues for a surprisingly low price tag.
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