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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers continue to find success as an offense, as they rank fourth in the MLB in runs scored, second in home runs, seventh in team batting average, and third in OPS through 103 games. Los Angeles has found significant more success at home, where they are hitting for a .274 average with a .490 slugging percentage and a .839 OPS through 53 games. They are averaging 5.4 runs and 3.5 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Dodgers are -196 favorites in a game set at 10 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.9 runs.
Los Angeles gets an elite matchup against Jaime Barria, who has struggled through eight games (three starts) in 2019, posting a 3-3 record with 7.36 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP. He owns a 4.71 xFIP and a 4.33 SIERA in those games, as well. Barria has struggled with 40.2% fly ball and 11.4% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also given up a 37.5% hard hit rate, while posting only a 10.6% soft hit rate this season. He brings 22.7% strikeout and 11% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Barria has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .338 average with a .577 slugging percentage and a .396 wOBA. He has also given up a .292/.523/.361 line to left-handed batters in 2019. Most importantly, Barria has been at his worst on the road, where he has given up a .403/.708/.478 line to his opponents this season. This is nearly a perfect storm for Los Angeles, as they feature an elite offense at home, and get one of the worst road pitchers in the MLB. They make the safest stacking option, but they also come with elite upside.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Washington Nationals
The Washington Nationals have seen mixed results throughout the 2019 season. Through 99 games, they rank 15th in the MLB in runs scored, 19th in home runs, 11th in team batting average, and 13th in OPS. The Nationals have found tremendous success at home, where they boast a .268 average with a .466 slugging percentage and a .809 OPS through 47 games. They are also averaging 5.0 runs and 3.5 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Washington is a -220 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs tonight, and they feature an implied run total of 5.8 runs.
The Nationals are playing a double-header today, and they get a matchup against Kyle Freeland tonight. He has struggled through 14 starts in 2019, recording a 2-7 record with a 7.62 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP. He has also posted a 5.21 xFIP and a 5.12 SIEAR in those games. Freeland has given up 36.3% fly ball and 21% HR/FB rates this season. He has also allowed his opponents to record a 43.1% hard hit rate, while posting only a 15.1% soft hit rate in 2019. He enters this game with an 18.5% strikeout rate to go along with a 10.8% swinging strike rate. Freeland has struggled against everyone this season. He’s allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .340 average with a .553 slugging percentage and a .397 wOBA, while right-handed batters have posted a .289/.573/.378 line against him this season. He has been better on the road in 2019, but he has still given up a .255/.482/.345 line in those contests. It will be interesting to see who starts for Washington in this game, as their normals starters played in the first game of this double-header. Regardless, the Nationals should find plenty of success in this particular matchup.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Jordan Lyles
Lyles has seen mixed results this season, posting a 5-6 record with a 4.91 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP through 16 starts. He also owns a 4.33 xFIP and a 4.42 SIERA in those games. He has posted a 37.1% fly ball rate, while holding his opponents to a 15.7% HR/FB rate. He has also held his opponents to a 36.4% har hit rate, while recording a 17.1% soft hit rate. Lyles brings 25% strikeout and 10.3% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. He’s a -103 “favorite” in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 4.8 runs.
Lyles gets a matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals, who rank fifth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking last in team wOBA. Lyles has been significantly better against right-handed batters, holding them to a .220 average with a .392 slugging percentage and a .284 wOBA in 2019. Lyles also owns a 3.84 xFIP and a 26.1% strikeout rate against right-handed batters this season. He’s a solid salary relief option tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Brian McCann
McCann has been playing well recently, posting a .316 average with a .474 slugging percentage and a .824 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts four extra-base hits (one home run) and four RBIs over that spand, as well. McCann has recorded 61% hard hit and 47% fly ball rates with a 98 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also brings 0.165 wOBA and 0.173 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game.
McCann gets a plus matchup against Brad Keller, who enters this game with a 4.93 xFIP and a 5.27 SIERA through 21 starts. He has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .258 average with a .381 slugging percentage and a .324 wOBA this season. He has given up a .281/.434/.345 line on the road this season, as well. McCann is hitting seventh in the Atlanta Braves lineup, and he makes a solid option in all leagues tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
