Pitchers
Chris Sale- Sale sets up to the chalk spend up in cash games, and rightfully so given that he matches up with the Tampa Bay Rays and he is not the most expensive pitcher on either site. Sale rebounded after three unlucky outings to strike out 12 Blue Jays across six innings. The Rays strike out 26% if the time against left-handed pitching, and I don’t see the reason to over-think this in cash games. The good news is we are loaded in options at the top tier, so the GPP pivot options are endless on this particular slate.
Chris Archer- Archer is not someone I typically play in DFS given his control issues, but he’s hard to overlook on this slate given his price point. Archer has come on strong over the last month, dropping his SIERA to 3.50 over that span with 36% strikeouts and 16% swinging strikes. The Cardinals are middle of the road when it comes to walk rate, so it’s not any more of a concern than usual, and they also are expected to send six righties to the plate which is a boost for Archer and his 27% strikeout rate in the split this season. Their projected team strikeout rate looks worse than it is due to the presence of K-happy Tyler O’Neill, but overall we don’t need a massive strikeout game from Archer at this price. I fully expect him to be the most popular SP2 on DK tonight, and he’s playable in all formats.
Dylan Covey- If you don’t want to spend $18,500 on your cash game pitchers, I present to you tonight’s chalky punt in Dylan Covey! I wasn’t on Ivan Nova last night (maybe mistakenly), but with Covey coming in under $5,000 on DraftKings I can certainly understand punting with him and hoping for 10 points. I was able to hit cash games with under 2 fantasy points from Adrian Sampson last night, which goes to show, these punt pitchers don’t need a big game, mainly they need to avoid a negative score. Covey is not very good, he doesn’t strike guys out, but he can get ground balls (49% to righties) and is really good at managing contact with only 28% hard hits allowed as well. The Marlins will send seven righties to the plate tonight, further boosting the matchup for him. We certainly could see what happened with Nova again tonight given how bad this offense is, or we could see the Marlins offense come to life against a bad pitcher. If you roster Covey, I would suggest making a hedge stack with Miami in GPPs. Either way, I see the value in using him to fit Sale + bats and I think it’s definitely a viable route in cash games tonight.
Note: I fully expect Matt Boyd to come in way too low-owned tonight with all of the ace-level pitching we have available, and that makes him my favorite overall play on this slate in GPPs. He’s under $10K, and I just love his profile. He’s actually been a tad unlucky when it comes to allowing HR’s, he doesn’t walk anyone, and he strikes out over 30% of batters to both sides of the plate. For that reason, we don’t need to worry about the amount of righties in the Phillies lineup, and with Segura out we have some huge strikeout bats hiding at the bottom of their order.
GPP Options: Stephen Strasburg, Matt Boyd, Dylan Covey, Tommy Milone
Building Blocks
Ronald Acuna- Acuna is one of the most expensive batters on DraftKings tonight, but hopefully all that does is keep his ownership at bay. Acuna, and his Braves teammates, lineup in a great spot tonight against Danny Duffy who has pitched to a 5.05 xFIP with 41% hard hits allowed to right-handed batters this season. Acuna himself dominates left-handed pitching to the tune of a .498 xwOBA and a .272 ISO. Acuna also owns over a .200 ISO against Duffy’s two most used pitches — his four-seam fastball and his slider — which account for over 60% of his pitches to right-handed hitters. Acuna is my top overall spend-up on Tuesday night’s slate.
Jose Abreu- If we are locking in Acuna, we are going to need someone cheaper and those savings can come in the form of Jose Abreu, who is just $3,900 on DraftKings. I don’t go out of my way to pick on Caleb Smith, but the one thing that he does is allow fly balls and give up home runs, which plays into Abreu’s power. Abreu matches up well with Smith’s pitch mix as well, sporting over a .290 ISO against his two secondary pitches (slider/changeup) and a .451 xwOBA against fastballs. Smith’s HR/9 jumps from 0.67 to 2.74 away from home, so it won’t shock me to see him allow a homer or two tonight in Chicago. Abreu is viable in all formats for me at first base.
Manny Machado- I normally would probably slot another value-type play in here in addition to Abreu, but with the likelihood of me rolling out a punt SP2 increasing on DraftKings, I should have room to get some more mid-tier salary players — namely Manny Machado. Machado doesn’t get the same reputation as guys like JD Martinez, Nelson Cruz and Giancarlo Stanton when it comes to mashing lefties, but he has been elite in that department again this season boasting a .547 wOBA with a .486 ISO. His opponent, Jason Vargas, has surrendered over 40% fly balls and hard hits to right-handed batters this season, which could spell trouble against a right-handed dominant Padres lineup.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
