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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves have found plenty of offensive success in 2019. They currently rank seventh in the MLB in runs scored, ninth in home runs, eighth in team batting average, and sixth in OPS through 101 games. Atlanta has been significantly better at home, where they are hitting for a .276 average with a .492 slugging percentage and a .847 OPS through 51 games. They are averaging 5.7 runs and 3.8 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Braves are -215 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.8 runs.
Atlanta gets an elite matchup against Danny Duffy tonight. He owns a 4-5 record with a 4.52 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP through 15 starts. He has struggled a bit more than that, though, as he brings a 5.19 xFIP and a 5.06 SIERA into this game. Duffy has also struggled with 40% fly ball and 13% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has given up a 38.9% hard hit rate, while recording only a 14.7% soft hit rate. He has posted a 19.4% strikeout rate to go along with a 9.8% swinging strike rate this season, as well. Duffy has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .284 average with a .494 slugging percentage and a .377 wOBA. He has also given up a .259/.444/.322 line to right-handed batters in 2019. Furthermore, Duffy has allowed his opponents to post a .270/.443/.339 line on the road this season. Atlanta features an offense that has found tremendous success at home, and this is an ideal matchup for them. There likely won’t be one “Chalk Stack” on this slate, but the Braves in cash games makes the most sense.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Houston Astros
The Houston Astros continue to feature a dominant offense, and they rank sixth in the MLB in runs scored and home runs, while also ranking second in team batting average and OPS through 102 games. The Astros have been better at home through 51 games, as they own a .277 average with a .480 slugging percentage and a .835 OPS in those games. They are also averaging 5.2 runs and 3.5 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Houston is a -156 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs tonight, and they feature one of the higher implied run totals on the slate at 5.3 runs.
The Astros get a solid matchup against Mike Fiers, who has posted a 9-3 record with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP through 20 starts in 2019. He’s due for massive regression, though, as he also owns a 5.35 xFIP and a 5.30 SIERA this season. Fiers has given up a 39.9% fly ball rate, while holding his opponents to a 10.3% HR/FB rate in 2019. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 38.3% hard hit rate, while recording a 16.9% soft hit rate. He has also struggled with 15.8% strikeout and 7.8% swinging strike rates this season. Fiers has struggled against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .256 average with a .361 slugging percentage and a .283 wOBA. He has allowed right-handed batters to post a .205/.363/.284 line this season. Fiers has been at his worst on the road, as well, giving up a .260/.426/.317 line away from home in 2019. Fiers gave up six earned runs over 1.2 innings in his only start in Houston this season, while holding the Astros to two runs over 6.2 innings in Oakland. I’m expecting similar struggles in Houston on this slate, as Fiers continues his journey towards regression.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Arizona Diamondbacks have found plenty of offensive success through 101 games this season. They currently rank 10th in the MLB in runs scored, 15th in home runs, ninth in team batting average, and 11th in OPS. They have been better on the road, but they are hitting for a .247 average with a .413 slugging percentage and a .732 OPS through 47 games at home. They are averaging 4.6 runs and 3.3 extra-base hits per game in Arizona, as well. Tonight, they are -182 favorites in a game set at 9 runs, and they own an implied run total of 5.3 runs.
Dylan Bundy will be taking the mound for the Baltimore Orioles tonight. He has struggled through 18 starts, posting a 4-11 record with a 5.28 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. He owns a 4.78 xFIP and a 4.43 SIERA in those starts, as well. Bundy has also struggled with 42% fly ball and 18.6% HR/FB rates this season. Surprisingly, he has only given up a 29.7% hard hit rate in 2019, while posting only a 16.7% soft hit rate. He brings 24% strikeout and 13.1% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Bundy has been a reverse splits pitcher in 2019, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .258 average with a .571 slugging percentage and a .370 wOBA. He has also given up a .260/.442/.321 line to left-handed batters. Bundy’s biggest struggled have come with his inability to limit his opponents power, making Arizona an elite stacking option on this slate.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Chris Archer
Archer has seen mixed results through 17 starts in 2019, posting a 3-6 record with a 5.36 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. He owns a 4.59 xFIP and a 4.54 SIERA this season, as well. He has struggled most with home runs, giving up 41.9% fly ball and 22.2% HR/FB rates. Archer has allowed his opponents to post a 42.6% hard hit rate in 2019, while recording a 16.4% soft hit rate. He brings 26.7% strikeout and 12.9% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. He’s currently a -126 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 4.3 runs.
Archer gets a great matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals, who rank third on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking last in team wOBA. Surprisingly, Archer has been better against left-handed pitching this season, holding them to a .217 average with a .465 slugging percentage and a .330 wOBA. Archer is due for positive regression against right-handed batters, though, as they own a 4.23 xFIP and a 27.3% strikeout rate against him. He has also held his opponents to a .232/.443/.326 line at home. Archer’s inconsistencies have kept his price tag low, and he’s a strong tournament option on this slate.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Harold Castro
Castro continues to be one of the best values whenever he’s on the slate. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting .366 with a .585 slugging percentage and a .957 OPS. He owns five extra-base hits (one home run) and six RBIs in those games. Castro owns a 42% hard hit rate with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. He also brings 0.131 wOBA and 0.123 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game.
Castro gets a matchup against Aaron Nola, who enters this game with a 3.96 xFIP and a 4.24 SIERA. He has been at his worst against left-handed batters allowing them to hit for a .250 average with a .426 slugging percentage and a .328 wOBA. Nola has also given up a .246/.450/.333 line on the road in 2019. Castro is expected to hit second in the Detroit Tigers lineup, and he makes an elite option in all leagues for his current price tag.
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