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Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Marco Gonzales
There are a multitude of elite, high-priced pitching options on this slate, so I’ll allow Jason to break down his favorite one. As for me, I’ll give you a significantly cheaper SP2. Marco Gonzales has seen mixed results in 2019, posting a 10-8 record with a 4.48 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP through 21 starts. His numbers aren’t backed by his xFIP (5.27) or SIERA (5.10), but this is a matchup play rather than a talent play. Through 3 starts (18 innings) against the Texas Rangers this season, Gonzales has given up 10 runs (7 earned runs), while striking out 16 batters. He also gave up eight runs (six earned runs) in four innings in their last matchup. In the first two matchups, he threw 14 innings of 2 run (1 earned run) baseball, while striking out 12 batters. Over the last week of play, Texas is hitting for a .184 average with a .374 slugging percentage and a .609 OPS. They are also averaging only 2.6 runs per game over that span. The Rangers have been significantly worse on the road this season, and they’ll be playing in one of the more pitcher-friendly stadiums in the MLB. While Gonzales is only a -107 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs, he makes a great option on this slate for a lower price tag.
Jason’s Reaction: I like the Seattle Mariners to win this game, and if Gonzales can get a few good innings under his belt, he makes for a great tournament option at his price tag.
Jason’s Pick: Gerrit Cole
Pitching, at least from a fantasy sports perspective, is all about strikeouts and earned runs. Gerrit Cole has the highest strikeout prediction on the slate tonight at slightly under double-digits, and he is a -263 betting favorite over the Oakland Athletics in a game set via Vegas at 8.5 total runs. That means Vegas is expecting the Athletics to score 3.2 runs, which is the lowest on the slate. Despite his high price tag, Cole has the most strikeout potential with the lowest earned run prediction, making him easily the best pitching option on the board. Do not overthink it tonight.
Justin’s Reaction: Cole is my top option for cash games tonight. If you’re talking FanDuel, I think a case can be made for Mike Clevinger in that role.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Travis d’Arnaud
Travis d’Arnaud seems like the obvious option on this slate, but the catcher position tends to go overlooked because people like to spend up for Gary Sanchez or punt. d’Arnaud is in the sweet spot again, and he’s hitting .343 with a .829 slugging percentage and a 1.239 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 7 extra-base hits (5 home runs) and 12 RBIs over that span. Furthermore, d’Arnaud boasts 45% hard hit and 40% fly ball rates to go along with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He gets a decent matchup against Eduardo Rodriguez, and brings 0.06 wOBA and 0.106 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game. He’s also expected to lead off for the Tampa Bay Rays, adding to his floor/ceiling combination. d’Arnaud hasn’t necessarily been the most consistent option recently, but there are very few catchers that possess his upside, especially for his price tag. He’s an elite tournament option on this slate.
Jason’s Reaction: I love d’Arnaud tonight, but I’ll do you one better at the catcher position (see below).
Jason’s Pick: Omar Narvaez
Since Justin recommended a catcher, and I’m feeling especially pugnacious today, I’ll make it a true ‘Battle of the Bales’ at the infielder position. Omar Narvaez, despite not having the low price tag that Travis d’Arnaud possesses, makes for an elite option at the catcher position. In his last 10 games, he is hitting just slightly under .400 with 4 home runs and 8 RBIs. He gets a great matchup tonight against Adrian Sampson, who has struggled with the home run ball all season long. He enters tonight’s game with positive 0.031 ISO and 0.023 wOBA differentials against right-handed pitching, and his advanced metrics are very solid. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 255 feet, an average exit velocity on batted balls of 97 MPH, a fly ball rate of 38%, and a hard hit rate of 42%. Narvaez will have fantasy owners asking, “Gary Sanchez who?” He has serious home run upside tonight, so roster him in tournaments.
Justin’s Reaction: I like Narvaez tonight, but I’m not sure why you’d spend more on him than d’Arnaud. Luckily for our readers, the latter is 1B eligible on DraftKings, so you can use both.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge and Mookie Betts are two outfielders that are becoming must plays on every slate. Over his last 10 games, Judge is hitting .394 with a .606 slugging percentage and a 1.141 OPS. He has posted three extra-base hits (two home runs) and six RBIs over that span, as well. He owns an 85% hard hit rate to go along with a 100 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. How is that even possible? The only thing stopping him from being the best hitter in the MLB right now is that he also possesses a 50% ground ball rate over that span. That’s a bit of a concern against a ground ball pitcher like Martin Perez, but Judge also enters this game with 0.086 wOBA and 0.108 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching. He’s hitting second in the New York Yankees lineup, and there isn’t a real reason to avoid him for a sub-$5K price tag.
Jason’s Reaction: Judge is the best outfielder option, period. However, the only thing stopping him from being the best hitter in the league right now is Mike Trout, not his ground ball rate.
Jason’s Pick: Jordan Luplow
Jordan Luplow is expected to hit fourth tonight for the Cleveland Indians, and his price tag is definitely discounted. In his last 10 games, he is hitting just under .350 with 1 home run and 3 RBIs. He gets a very solid matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays and Ryan Borucki, especially considering that Borucki is a left-handed pitcher. Luplow will enter the game with positive 0.246 ISO and 0.179 wOBA differentials. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 247 feet, an average exit velocity on batted balls of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate over 50%, and a hard hit rate over 45%. Those advanced metrics suggest that home runs are going to become plentiful for the Indians’ clean-up hitter. He has great upside for his price tag, and right now, he can be rostered in all leagues.
Justin’s Reaction: Luplow is always on my radar when he’s facing a left-handed pitcher, so I like this recommendation a lot.
Be sure to follow Justin (@BalesSJustin) and Jason (@BalesTJason) on Twitter!
