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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
New York Yankees
The New York Yankees have found plenty of offensive success in 2019, ranking second in the MLB in runs scored, fifth in home runs and OPS, and sixth in team batting average through 98 games. New York has been surprisingly better on the road, where they own a .266 average with a .466 slugging percentage and a .812 OPS through 43 games. They are averaging 6.2 runs and 3.7 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Yankees are -114 favorites in a game set at 11 runs, giving them one of the highest implied run totals on this slate at 5.7 runs.
New York gets a plus matchup against Martin Perez tonight. He enters this game with an 8-3 record to go along with a 4.10 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP through 19 games (16 starts). He has posted a 4.34 xFIP and a 4.73 SIERA in those games. Perez has held his opponents to 27.5% fly ball and 9.9% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has given up a 34.8% hard hit rate, though, while also posting only a 16.2% soft hit rate. He brings 20.5% strikeout and 10.5% swinging strike rates into this game. Perez has been at his worst against right-handed batters, who he has allowed to post a .249 average with a .385 slugging percentage and a .306 wOBA this season. While he has found more success at home this season, he gets one of his toughest matchups of the year against New York, who feature a plethora of elite right-handed batters. With only one lefty (Mike Tauchman) to break up the lineup, Perez is going to be forced to find success against right-handed batters, which makes New York one of the safest stacks on this slate.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Houston Astros
The Houston Astros also feature one of the most dominant offenses in the MLB, ranking eighth in the league in runs scored, sixth in home runs, third in team batting average, and second in OPS through 101 games. The Astros have been a better offense at home, as they boast a .276 average with a .476 slugging percentage and a .827 OPS through 50 home games. They are also averaging 5.1 runs and 3.4 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Houston is a -262 favorite in a game set at 9 runs tonight, and they feature an implied run total of 5.7 runs.
The Astros get a matchup against Homer Bailey, who has seen mixed results this season. He has posted an 8-6 record with a 4.69 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP through 19 starts in 2019. He also possesses a 4.55 xFIP and a 4.79 SIERA in those starts. Bailey has held his opponents to a 32.7% fly ball rate, while giving up a 13% HR/FB rate in 2019. He has also allowed his opponents to record a 44.2% hard hit rate this season, while posting only a 14.1% soft hit rate. He enters this game with 21.1% strikeout and 10.5% swinging strike rates in 2019. Bailey has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .287 average with a .420 slugging percentage and a .334 wOBA. He has also given up a .236/.410/.305 line to left-handed batters. Furthermore, Bailey has allowed his opponents to post a .261/.413/.327 line on the road this season. Houston will likely be a second potential cash stack tonight, but they come with more than enough upside to be considered in tournaments, as well.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Arizona Diamondbacks have featured an above average offense through 100 games this season. They currently rank 11th in the MLB in runs scored, 14th in home runs, 10th in team batting average, 12th in OPS. They have been better on the road, but they have posted a .245 average with a .410 slugging percentage and a .727 OPS through 46 games in Arizona this season. They are averaging 4.5 runs and 3.2 extra-base hits per game at home this season. The Diamondbacks are -245 favorites in a game set at 9 runs, and they own an implied run total of 5.6 runs tonight.
Aaron Brooks will be taking the mound for the Baltimore Orioles tonight. He has struggled through 17 games (8 starts), posting a 2-3 record with a 4.69 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. He has also struggled with a 5.16 xFIP and a 4.70 SIERA this season. Brooks has posted 40.1% fly ball and 17.9% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also given up a 36.3% hard hit rate, while recording a 14.9% soft hit rate this season. He has posted a 19.2% strikeout rate to go along with an 8.4% swinging strike rate. Brooks has struggled more against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .248 average with a .495 slugging percentage and a .338 wOBA. He has given up a .234/.430/.313 line to left-handed batters this season, as well. Furthermore, Brooks has been at his worst on the road, where he has allowed his opponents to hit for a .271/.531/.360 line this season. The Diamondbacks come with elite upside, and they are likely to get lost in the shuffle tonight (in terms of ownership).
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Adrian Sampson
Sampson has seen plenty of ups and downs in 2019, posting a 6-6 record with a 4.92 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP through 22 games (12 starts). He has recorded a 5.01 xFIP and a 4.59 SIERA this season, as well. He has given up 40.6% fly ball and 14.8% HR/FB rates. Sampson has also allowed his opponents to post a 49.1% hard hit rate to go along with a 13.5% soft hit rate. He enters this game with 18.8% strikeout and 9.8% swinging strike rates, as well. He’s a +104 underdog in a game set at 10 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 5.2 runs.
Sampson gets a plus matchup against the Seattle Mariners, who seventh on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also posting a below average team wOBA. Sampson has been at his best against right-handed batters, holding them to a .288 average with a .503 slugging percentage and a .349 wOBA. He has been worse on the road this season, but he’ll be throwing in one of the more pitcher friendly stadiums in the MLB. Sampson is so cheap that he can be considered in all leagues tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
A.J. Reed
Reed has only played in six games this season, but he owns a .278 average with a .444 slugging percentage and a .794 OPS. He has posted one home run and three RBIs in those games, as well. Reed enters this game with 45% hard hit and fly ball rates to go along with a 97 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. He also brings 0.362 wOBA and 0.176 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game.
Reed gets a plus matchup against Trevor Richards, who has struggled with a 5.39 xFIP and a 5.18 SIERA through 19 starts. He has also given up a 40.7% hard hit rate to go along with a 16.6% soft hit rate in 2019. Richards has struggled against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .275 average with a .425 slugging percentage and a .348 wOBA this season. Reed is hitting fifth in the Chicago White Sox lineup, and he makes a solid option in all leagues tonight.
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