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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox feature one of the best offenses in the MLB in 2019, leading the league in runs scored and team batting average, while also ranking 11th in home runs and fourth in OPS through 98 games. Boston has been better at home this season, but they are still hitting .268 with a .449 slugging percentage and a .789 OPS through 49 road games. They are averaging 5.6 runs and 3.4 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. Tonight, they are -213 favorites in a game set at 12 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 7.3 runs.
Boston gets a great matchup against Tom Eshelman, who has only started two games this season. In those games, he owns an 0-1 record with a 5.06 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. He has also posted a 4.50 xFIP and a 4.92 SIERA in those starts. Eshelman has held his opponents to a 31.4% fly ball rate, although he has given up an 18.2% HR/FB rate, as well. He has given up a 34.3% hard hit rate, while recording only an 11.4% soft hit rate in 2019. He has also struggled with 15.9% strikeout and 6.3% swinging strike rates this season. Eshelman has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .273 average with a .409 slugging percentage and a .307 wOBA. He has also given up a .263/.421/.285 line to right-handed batters in 2019. Eshelman will continue to throw in one of the more hitter friendly stadiums in the MLB, and it’s difficult to believe he’ll find success against Boston tonight. Keep in mind, the Red Sox will also likely see plenty of innings against a weak Baltimore Orioles bullpen in this matchup.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Cleveland Indians
The Cleveland Indians have been heating up recently, but they still rank 20th in the MLB in runs scored, home runs, and team batting average, while also ranking 19th in OPS through 96 games. The Indians enter this game with a .246 average, .422 slugging percentage, and .746 OPS through 51 home games. They are also averaging 4.7 runs and 3.0 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Furthermore, they own a .293/.510/.853 line through eight games since the All Star Break. Cleveland is a -161 favorite in a game set at 11 runs tonight, and they feature an implied run total of 6.3 runs.
The Indians get a matchup against Jakob Junis tonight. He has struggled through 20 starts, posting a 5-8 record with a 5.08 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. Those numbers are also backed by his 4.59 xFIP and 4.59 SIERA. Junis has given up 34.3% fly ball and 17.8% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 41.7% hard hit rate against him, while recording only a 13.6% soft hit rate. He brings 21.6% strikeout and 10.5% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Junis has struggled more against left-handed batters, allowing them to post a .289 average with a .485 slugging percentage and a .352 wOBA against him. He has also allowed right-handed batters to record a .249/.465/.327 line against him in 2019. Junis has struggled more on the road, where his opponents own a .274/.538/.366 line. Cleveland has been one of the hottest offenses in the MLB since the All Star Break, and there’s very little reason to believe a pitcher that has struggled as much as Junis this season will be able to slow them down.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pittsburgh Pirates have featured a relatively average offense this season, ranking 19th in the MLB in runs scored, 26th in home runs, fourth in team batting average, and 16th in OPS through 96 games. They have been significantly better in Pittsburgh, where they boast a .278 average with a .451 slugging percentage and a .786 OPS. They are averaging 5.1 runs and 3.6 extra-base hits per game through 44 games in Pittsburgh, as well. The Pirates are currently -130 favorites in a game set at 10.5 runs, and they own an implied run total of 5.6 runs.
Zach Eflin will be taking the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies tonight. He has seen mixed results through 18 starts, posting a 7-9 record with a 4.16 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. He owns a 4.78 xFIP and a 4.71 SIERA this season, as well. Eflin has struggled with the long ball at times, recording 38.5% fly ball and 14.3% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 37.3% hard hit rate, while recording a 16% soft hit rate. Eflin enters this game with 19.3% strikeout and 9.3% swinging strike rates, as well. He has yet to figure out left-handed batters, as he has allowed them to hit for a .271 average with a .543 slugging percentage and a .357 wOBA this season. He has also given up a .270/.391/.295 line to right-handed batters. Furthermore, Eflin has allowed his opponents to post a .279/.498/.346 line against him on the road. The left-handed bats of Pittsburgh make for an elite tournament stack on this slate tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Griffin Canning
Canning owns a 3-5 record with a 4.75 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP through 13 starts in 2019. He has also posted a 4.90 xFIP and a 4.36 SIERA in those games. The majority of his struggles have come with home runs, as he brings 47.8% fly ball and 15.1% HR/FB rates into this game. He has also given up a 40.7% hard hit rate to go along with a 17.6% soft hit rate this season. Canning does own 25.3% strikeout and 14% swinging strike rates, though. The Vegas line for this game hasn’t been set yet, but it would be a surprise if Canning wasn’t the favorite to win.
He gets a plus matchup against the Seattle Mariners, who rank seventh on this slate in strikeouts per at-bat. Surprisingly, Canning has been better against left-handed batters, holding them to a .186 average with a .424 slugging percentage and a .297 wOBA. The Mariners have flashed power in 2019, but they have traded away a few of those bats, and if Canning can work around their remaining power hitters, he could be one of the best pitchers on this slate for a reasonable price tag.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Brian McCann
McCann has seen ups and downs this season, and he’s hitting .265 with a .353 slugging percentage and a .677 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns two extra-base hits and two RBIs in those games, as well. More importantly, McCann boasts 55% hard hit and 45% fly ball rates to go along with a 97 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also brings 0.14 wOBA and 0.161 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game.
McCann gets a matchup against Anibal Sanchez, who is due for regression, as his ERA (3.71) is significantly better than his xFIP (5.09) and SIERA (5.07). Sanchez has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .250 average with a .480 slugging percentage and a .330 wOBA. McCann is expected to hit seventh in the Atlanta Braves offense, and he makes a strong salary relief option in all leagues tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
