Pitchers
Trevor Bauer- We are absolutely loaded on this Tuesday slate, with 15 games, elite pitching like Bauer, Corbin, Morton and Boyd, and some amazing offensive spots. I strongly considered putting Charlie Morton in this top spot, as I like him a lot in his home matchup with the Orioles, but I think if I was spending up, Bauer is the safest option (with upside) for me, especially when factoring in his pitch count. Bauer has thrown 115+ pitches nine times already this season, which is pretty much unheard of this day in age. The Royals are not a good offense, but they are much more peskier against righties than lefties — striking out 23% of the time, good for 16th in the MLB. Bauer himself said he “finally felt like himself” on the mound after his last outing…against this Royals team, in which he struck out 12 across 6.2 innings. He threw a few more sliders in that start, so maybe that is a trend we see stick tonight in the same exact matchup. Bauer comes in as the highest-priced pitcher on this slate, and it is deserved in my opinion given the amount of pitches he has been throwing. I will note that it looks like it’s going to be really hot and humid in Kansas City tonight, so if you don’t feel comfortable spending this high up in cash games I would understand. My pivot there would be down to Morton, who is $1,000 less on DK and $800 less on FanDuel.
James Paxton- Paxton’s first season in pinstripes has not exactly been what they expected, but also hasn’t been as bad as it probably seems to casual baseball fans. He owns a 4.08 SIERA with 29% strikeouts and 10% walks, the control issues is what gets him into trouble more times than not, the strikeouts are still there, and he has actually been getting extremely unlucky. His ERA is on par with his SIERA, but over the last 30 days (5 starts) he has been victimized by a .377 BABIP with sub-30% hard hits allowed in three of those five starts. We get someone with the upside of Paxton at an extremely affordable price tag of $8,700 on FanDuel and $8,900 on DraftKings tonight, in a plus match with the Mets. The Mets are striking out 24% of the time against left-handed pitching this season, and they rank outside the top-15 in walk rate, so hopefully those 10% walks from Paxton won’t be as much of an issue today. He doesn’t seem like a cash game play, but at his price he is playable in all formats for me on this slate.
Matt Strahm- Strahm is someone that I was on coming into the season, and he has been decent pitching to a 4.29 SIERA with 22% strikeouts, held back by some extreme issues with the long ball. The good news for Boyd tonight is the matchup with the San Francisco Giants, who despite their offensive eruption last night, rank second-to-last in baseball in team ISO against left-handed pitchers (.122) along with last in wRC+ (69)…this is as good of a matchup as it gets for Strahm. Furthermore, the matchup gets even better for him when you dig into his pitch mix, seeing as he uses his changeup as a put-out pitch to righties, a pitch that the Giants struggle mightily with. Not only do the Giants struggle with changeups, only one batter on the team owns a wOBA over .315 against the pitch, and that’s Buster Posey at .365. Overall, I like where Strahm’s price is and I love being able to spend down for pitching on massive slates like this.
Reynaldo Lopez- I’ll conclude my pitcher section with Reynaldo Lopez, as for some reason, he has been a Tiger killer this season. Lopez’s advanced metrics leave a lot to b desired, a 5.12 SIERA and 20% strikeouts don’t jump off the board whatsoever, but if you isolate the numbers to starts against the Tigers, his strikeout rate rises to 45%! Sure, that’s a really small sample size, but it might not be the wrong sample size given that the Tigers are first in the league in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching and their 73 wRC+ is last as well. Lopez is an extreme fly ball pitcher, and the Tigers second-to-last team ISO against right-handed pitching won’t play well here either. It’s not a stretch to think that Lopez is capable of big starts in matchups made for him, and tonight looks to be one of those nights.
Tournament Pool: Charlie Morton, Zac Gallen, Matt Strahm, Reynaldo Lopez
Building Blocks
Dodgers lefties- The Dodgers are back against Taylor Clarke, and his 6.52 xFIP, 14% strikeouts and 39% hard hits to left-handed batters this season. The Dodgers are an absolute gauntlet for any righty to face, especially one that struggles with lefties as much as Clarke does. This is a Coors Field slate, and we will be prioritizing Astros/Rockies in cash games, but I will be considering the Dodgers are fill out options for all of my lineups, either as a full or mini-stacks, starting with Alex Verdugo, Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy.
Brandon Lowe- It looks like out old friend Asher Wojciechowski is starting for the Orioles tonight, I’m unsure of how long he will pitch, but it doesn’t really matter when he’s backed up by an Orioles bullpen. Woj hasn’t looked any better in the minors this season, posting a 5.51 xFIP through 80 innings for the Columbus Clippers (despite a mid-3.00 ERA). Yes, the Orioles literally traded for this guy yesterday and are making him start tonight. Either way, the Rays are going to be firmly on our radar tonight as a stack, starting with Lowe who is just $4,200 on DK. Lowe has the highest ISO on the Rays roster (min-50 PA) this season at .258.
Cash Game Core: Jose Altuve, Charlie Blackmon, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado
Value Options: Jose Altuve (LOL), Brandon Lowe, Goldy, Luis Arraez
HR Pick: Alex Verdugo
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
