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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies have found plenty of offensive success this season, ranking second in the MLB in runs scored and team batting average, 19th in home runs, and seventh in OPS through 84 games. Colorado has been at their at home, where they own a .315 average with a .544 slugging percentage and a .923 OPS through 41 home games. They are averaging 7.0 runs and 4.5 extra-base hits per game in those contests. They are currently -124 favorites in a game set at 13 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.9 runs tonight.
Colorado gets an interesting matchup against Jose Urquidy tonight. He has flashed at times in the minor leagues, posting a 15-11 record with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP through 63 games (50 starts). His Triple-A ERA sits at 2.89, while he owns a 3.67 xFIP through eight games (seven starts) in those games. Most importantly, Urquidy has allowed a 47.4% fly ball rate to go along with a 13$ HR/FB rate in Triple-A this season. While he has shown flashes in the minors in 2019, there isn’t much to suggest Urquidy is a high-level prospect, or that he will have a long, productive MLB career. There aren’t any MLB metrics to base this projection off of, but as a right-handed pitcher, we can expect that left-handed batters are more likely to find success against him. It will be difficult for Urquidy to find success in Colorado in his first career MLB start. The Rockies always feature an elite offense at home, and there’s very little reason to believe they won’t find success in this matchup. They also come with reasonable price tags tonight, making them the top “Cash Stack” on this slate.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers are another offense that has looked great through 84 games, ranking eighth in the MLB in runs scored, 16th in home runs, 13th in team batting average, and 10th in OPS. The Rangers have been at their best at home, where they boast a .263 average with a .471 slugging percentage and a .806 OPS through 43 games. They are also averaging 5.7 runs and 3.7 extra-base hits per game in those contests. The Rangers are -140 favorites in a game set at 10.5 runs tonight, and they feature an implied run total of 5.8 runs.
The Rangers get a matchup against Jose Suarez, who has struggled through four starts this season. Overall, he owns a 2-1 record with a 5.57 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. He has also struggled with a 5.84 xFIP and a 5.27 SIERA this season. Suarez has struggled with 54.8% fly ball and 17.6% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has given up a 37.1% hard hit rate to go along with a 19.4% soft hit rate. Suarez also enters this game with 21.1% strikeout and 12.4% swinging strike rates. He has been worse against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .280 average with a .560 slugging percentage and a .370 wOBA. He has also given up a .267/.533/.369 line to left-handed batters. Furthermore, Suarez has allowed his opponents to post a .286/.587/.385 line against him on the road this season. These teams will be playing in one of the more hitter friendly stadiums in the MLB, and Texas comes with tremendous upside tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves have featured one of the best offenses in the MLB, but they seemingly go overlooked the majority of nights. They currently rank fifth in the league in runs scored, eighth in home runs and team batting average, and sixth in OPS. They have been significantly better at home, where they own a .278 average with a .495 slugging percentage and a .851 OPS. They are averaging 5.9 runs and 3.7 extra-base hits per game in those 41 home games, as well. The Braves are currently a -102 underdog in a game set at 10 runs, giving them an implied run total of 5.0 runs.
Aaron Nola will be taking the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies tonight. He has seen plenty of ups and downs throughout the 2019 season, posting a 6-2 record with a 4.22 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP through 17 starts. He does own a 3.73 xFIP and a 4.07 SIERA in 2019. Nola has struggled most with a 19.7% HR/FB rate, although he has held his opponents to a 27.3% fly ball rate. He has also given up a 38.5% hard hit rate, while posting only a 17.6% soft hit rate. Nola enters this game with a 26.4% strikeout rate to go along with a 9.5% swinging strike rate. He has been significantly worse against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .275 average with a .472 slugging percentage and a .361 wOBA. Nola has also allowed his opponents to hit for a .292/.550/.388 line on the road. Between Nola’s road struggles and Atlanta’s elite home offense, they could find plenty of success in this game. They’ll also likely see lower ownership because of the name value of Nola, even though he hasn’t been as elite in 2019.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Matt Strahm
Strahm has seen mixed results in 2019, recording a 3-6 record with a 4.94 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP through 14 starts. He has also posted a 4.63 xFIP and a 4.29 SIERA in those starts. Straham has given up 43.4% fly ball and 16.8% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also allowed his opponents to hit for a 45.3% hard hit rate, while recording only a 17.3% soft hit rate. Strahm also enters this game with 22.4% strikeout and 10.2% swinging strike rates. Tonight, he’s a -153 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 3.8 runs.
Strahm gets a matchup against the San Francisco Giants, who rank as an average team in strikeouts per at-bat on this slate. They also rank last on the slate in team wOBA. Strahm has been a reverse splits pitcher in 2019, holding right-handed batters to a .227 average with a .462 slugging percentage and a .301 wOBA. He has held his opponents to a .258/.540/.340 line at home. The majority of Strahm’s struggles have come through the long ball, and San Francisco simply doesn’t have the power to threaten Strahm the way other offenses can. He can be considered in all leagues tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Tommy Edman
Edman continues to play well for the St. Louis Cardinals, posting a .296 average with a .593 slugging percentage and a .889 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns three extra-base hits (two home runs), three RBIs, and one stolen base in those contests. Edman also boasts 56% hard hit and 30% fly ball rates with a 96 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Through limited MLB at-bats, he owns 0.229 wOBA and 0.273 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Edman gets a matchup against Matt Carasiti tonight. Carasiti has thrown limited innings in the MLB throughout his career, but he owns a 5.33 xFIP and a 4.53 SIERA in those innings. He has also struggled against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .514 average with a .771 slugging percentage and a .581 wOBA. Edman is expected to lead off for St. Louis, and he makes a great option in all leagues tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
