Pitchers
Jacob deGrom- We are loaded with top-priced pitching on Friday night’s slate, but if choosing just one of them I’m going with deGrom, on the road in pitcher-friendly San Francisco against the Giants. I absolutely love Justin Verlander and Shane Bieber in tournaments tonight, but for the price I feel most safe with deGrom against the team who comes into tonight with the seventh-worst wRC+ against right-handed pitching (87). They also only have two players in their projected lineup with a .200 ISO or better against right-handed pitching, and deGrom has been dominant again this season with over 30% strikeouts.
Brendan McKay- With me focusing on deGrom in cash games and Verlander/Bieber in GPPs, the question becomes who to pair them with and out first option is Brendan McKay at $8,700. At first glance, I didn’t really expect to be able to fit in McKay with a near-$11,000 deGrom, but after messing with lineups a bit I do believe there is enough value should you want to go this route. McKay was fantastic in the minors for the Rays this season, which is what earned him a call-up, and his first few major league starts have been mainly positive as well. He is due for some regression with a 1.69 ERA compared to a 3.94 SIERA, but he is also do for positive strikeout regression with 13% swinging strikes compared to just 22% strikeouts. He also is able to limit blow-up potential as he rarely walks batters. The White Sox are much better against left-handed pitching than you would think with a top-ten wRC+, but that comes with 24% strikeouts which is also the tenth-most. Overall, with this matchup taking place in pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field, I have enough faith in McKay to label him as playable in all formats.
Cheap DK SP2- If you don’t want to roll with McKay at almost $9,000, we have a trio of cheap options in JA Happ, Tyler Beede and Tyler Mahle. Overall, of the three, Happ has the best matchup with the #RoadRockies who continue to be the Marlins on the road, while Beede gets the best pitching environment against the Mets with it being extremely hot in both Cincy and New York. Overall, I think all three of these guys are equally playable and I would want to spread out exposure to them in tournaments. If picking one for cash games, I would rank them Happ, Beede and then Mahle in that order.
Note: Marcus Stroman is the top value option for me on FanDuel priced at only $6.8K against the Tigers, and is playable in all formats despite his usual lack of strikeout upside.
Building Blocks
Ronald Acuna- Acuna always pops off the page for me when he matches up with a left-handed pitcher, which is the case tonight against Patrick Corbin. Corbin is not normally someone that we pick on with bats, but he also hasn’t been quite as good this season as he was last year. In 2018, Corbin was his normal dominant self against lefties, but he was also able to strike out 30% of righties while allowing just 27% fly balls. He’s always allowed above-average hard-contact, which was never a problem given his ability to strike guys out and generate ground balls. He’s been much worse against right-handed batters this season, with the fly balls jumping to 35% and the strikeouts dropping to 26% (still good, just not *as* good). He’s also allowed 1.1 HR/9 in the split this season, compared to just a 0.62 mark last season. This fits well with Acuna, whose .286 ISO is the highest mark on the Braves this season among qualified batters. He was my homerun pick on the stream today, and I’m heading into this slate with the hope of pairing him with Mookie Betts and JD Martinez in my optimal lineup build.
Joey Votto- If I end up succeeding in my attempt to get those outfielders in my build, I’m going to need some savings somewhere and those could come in the form of Joey Votto. Votto has not been the same fantasy player this season as in year’s past, which would explain his $3,400 price tag on DraftKings, but he has started to turn the corner over the last month. Votto’s batted ball data looks much better over the last 30 days — 38% hard hits and 41% fly balls. Furthermore, his opponent, Adam Wainwright, relies primarily on his curveball against left-handed batters…a pitch that Votto owns a .250 ISO against over the last two seasons.
Alex Bregman- As I said with Votto, we are going to need some savings to fit in a star studded outfield, and while Alex Bregman doesn’t seem like the type of player that can provide value, he most certainly can as he is priced at only $4,300 on DraftKings. Mike Minor has been good for the Rangers this season, no doubt, but there’s simply no matchup in which Bregman — who owns the fifth-highest wRC+ in the entire MLB this season (152) should be priced this low. He also comes with a .403 xwOBA against left-handed pitching accompanied by a massive .315 ISO.
Note: Jordan Luplow would be my top value option for FanDuel players.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
