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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
New York Yankees
The New York Yankees have featured an elite offense through 95 games this season. They currently rank fourth in the MLB in runs scored, fifth in home runs and OPS, and sixth in team batting average. New York has been better on the road this season, but they are still hitting .263 with a .463 slugging percentage and a .798 OPS through 52 home games. They are averaging 5.2 runs and 3.1 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Yankees are -213 favorites in a game set at 11.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 7.0 runs.
New York gets an elite matchup against Kyle Freeland, who has posted a 2-6 record with a 7.39 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP through 13 starts. He has also struggled with a 5.34 xFIP and a 5.18 SIERA in those games. Freeland has given up 37.7% fly ball and 20% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also allowed his opponents to record a 43% hard hit rate against him, while posting only a 15.4% soft hit rate. He has struggled a bit with a 17.8% strikeout rate to go along with a 10.8% swinging strike rate. Freeland has struggled against everyone throughout the 2019 season. He has allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .333 average with a .533 slugging percentage and a .388 wOBA, while also allowing righties to post a .286/.576/.376 line against him. Furthermore, Freeland has struggled on the road, where he has given up a .242/.467/.332 line this season. He’ll be moving from a hitter friendly stadium in Colorado to a hitter friendly stadium in New York. While it isn’t exactly the same, the Yankees come with elite potential at home, and they’re the safest stack on this slate.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox have found plenty of offensive success this season, leading the MLB in runs scored and team batting average, while also ranking 11th in the league in home runs and fourth in OPS through 97 games. The Red Sox have been slightly better at home, but they’re still hitting .269 with a .452 slugging percentage and a .793 OPS through 48 road games. They are also averaging 5.7 runs and 3.4 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Boston is a -246 favorite in a game set at 10 runs tonight, and they feature an implied run total of 6.3 runs.
The Red Sox get an interesting matchup against John Means. He has thrown extremely well this season, posting a 7-5 record with a 2.94 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP through 19 games (15 starts). He’s due for massive regression, though, as he also owns a 5.15 xFIP and a 4.69 SIERA in those games. Means has allowed his opponents to post a 46.9% fly ball rate, while holding them to a 10% HR/FB rate. He has also only allowed a 30.8% hard hit rate, while posting a 17.3% soft hit rate in 2019. Means brings 20.2% strikeout and 10% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. He has been at his worst against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .243 average with a .414 slugging percentage and a .304 wOBA this season. Surprisingly, Means has only allowed is opponents to post a .205/.351/.259 line in Baltimore this season. With that being said, he owns a 4.87 xFIP at home in 2019, adding to the idea that he’ll see major regression sooner rather than later. The Red Sox feature a few batters that dominate left-handed pitching, and I’m expecting Means to find some of that regression tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays have struggled offensively through 98 games this season. They rank only 25th in the MLB in runs scored, 15th in home runs, 30th in team batting average, and 26th in OPS. They have been significantly better away from Toronto, where they boast a .242 average with a .399 slugging percentage and a .709 OPS through 50 games. The Blue Jays are averaging 4.4 runs and 2.9 extra-base hits per game away from home this season. Tonight, Toronto is a -162 favorite in a game set at 10 runs, and they own one of the higher implied run totals on the slate at 5.7 runs.
Jordan Zimmermann will be taking the mound for the Detroit Tigers tonight. He has struggled through 11 starts this season, recording an 0-6 record with a 7.01 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP. He has also posted a 5.46 xFIP and a 5.35 SIERA in 2019. He has given up 37.2% fly ball and 10.3% HR/FB rates this season. Zimmermann has also allowed his opponents to post a 38.5% hard hit rate, while recording only an 11.2% soft hit rate. He brings only 14.6% strikeout and 8.5% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Zimmermann has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .330 average with a .515 slugging percentage and a .390 wOBA. He has allowed right-handed batters to post a .304/.504/.338 line against him in 2019, as well. Furthermore, Zimmermann has given up a .343/.552/.393 line at home this season. The Blue Jays are likely to go overlooked because of their lack of consistent success, but they come with tremendous upside, specifically in this matchup.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
J.A. Happ
Happ has seen mixed results through 18 starts, posting a 7-5 record with a 4.93 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. He also owns a 4.91 xFIP and a 4.71 SIERA in those games. He has given up 40.5% fly ball and 16.8% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also recorded 39% hard hit and 20% soft hit rates this season. Happ enters this game with 19.1% strikeout and 10.3% swinging strike rates. He’s a -213 favorite in a game set at 11.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 4.7 runs tonight.
Happ gets a matchup against the Colorado Rockies, who have struggled mightily on the road this season. They rank slightly below average in terms of strikeouts per at-bat, as well. Happ has struggled against both left- and right-handed batters in 2019, but he has been slightly better against righties. Overall, he has held them to a .251 average with a .473 slugging percentage and a .321 wOBA. Happ isn’t the safest option on the slate, but he’s a strong tournament option. To be fair, he’s cheap enough to be considered in cash games if you’re in a tough spot.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Harold Castro
Castro has been playing at an elite level recently, posting a .390 average with a .634 slugging percentage and a 1.021 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns six extra-base hits (one home run) and eight RBIs over that span, as well. Furthermore, Castro has recorded 40% hard hit and 33% line drive rates to go along with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has been at his best against right-handed pitching, posting 0.15 wOBA and 0.137 ISO differentials against righties.
Castro gets a plus matchup against Marcus Stroman tonight. He has posted a 4.10 xFIP and a 4.43 SIERA through 19 starts this season. Stroman has struggled significantly more against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .271 average with a .424 slugging percentage and a .320 wOBA. Castro is expected to hit second for the Detroit Tigers, and he’s cheap enough to safely be used in all leagues.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
