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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers have found plenty of offensive success throughout the 2019 season. They rank fourth in the MLB in runs scored and home runs, seventh in team batting average, and third in OPS through 97 games. Los Angeles has been better at home this season, but they are still hitting .254 with a .493 slugging percentage and a .791 OPS through 48 road games. They are averaging 5.4 runs and 3.7 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Dodgers are -154 favorites in a game set at 11 runs, giving them an implied run total of 6.2 runs tonight.
Los Angeles gets a matchup against Nick Pivetta, who has struggled through 12 starts this season. He owns a 4-4 record with a 5.81 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP in those starts. He has also struggled with a 4.70 xFIP and a 4.90 SIERA this season. Pivetta has allowed his opponents to post 32.9% fly ball and 22.9% HR/FB rates. He has also struggled with a 42.2% hard hit rate to go along with a 17.4% soft hit rate in 2019. Surprisingly, Pivetta enters this game with 18.3% strikeout and 9.5% swinging strike rates. He has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .321 average with a .569 slugging percentage and a .385 wOBA. He has struggled against left-handed batters, though, as well, allowing them to hit for a .264/.512/.348 line. Furthermore, Pivetta has been at his worst in Philadelphia, where his opponents own a .313/.540/.376 line this season. Los Angeles features a plethora of powerful bats throughout their lineup, and they’ll continue to benefit from playing in one of the more hitter friendly stadiums in the MLB.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Cleveland Indians
The Cleveland Indians have been far from a consistent offense this season, as they rank 20th in the MLB in runs scored, home runs, and OPS, while also ranking 21st in team batting average through 93 games. The Indians have been a bit better on the road, and they have posted a .238 average with a .413 slugging percentage and a .732 OPS through 48 home games. They are also averaging 4.5 runs and 2.9 extra-base hits per game in those contests. They are -291 favorites in a game set at 9 runs tonight, and they feature an implied run total of 5.8 runs.
The Indians get a plus matchup against Spencer Turnbull, who owns a 3-8 record with a 3.59 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP through 18 starts. He has struggled a bit more than that with a 4.78 xFIP and a 4.76 SIERA this season, though. Most importantly, Turnbull has been at his worst against left-handed batters, as his ERA balloons to 5.70 against lefties. He has also given up 34.2% fly ball and 12% HR/FB rates to lefties this season. They have also posted a 38.8% hard hit rate to go along with a 15.7% soft hit rate against him in 2019. Turnbull’s strikeout rate has also dropped to 15.7% against left-handed batters this season. Overall, he has allowed his opponents to hit for a .288 average with a .463 slugging percentage and a .355 wOBA from the left side of the plate. The Indians are expected to use a plethora of left-handed batters in their lineup tonight, and the majority of them come with low price tags. We can continue to take advantage of Turnbull’s struggles against lefties until he figures out that side of the plate as well as he has figured out right-handed batters.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Chicago White Sox
The Chicago White Sox have struggled offensively through 91 games this season. They currently rank 28th in the MLB in runs scored, 25th in home runs, 13th in team batting average, and 24th in OPS. They have struggled at times on the road, where they own a .246 average with a .386 slugging percentage and a .687 OPS through 46 road games. The White Sox are also averaging 4.0 runs and 2.6 extra-base hits per game away from Chicago this season. Tonight, they are +119 underdogs in a game set at 10.5 runs, and they own an implied run total of 5.0 runs.
Danny Duffy will be taking the mound for the Kansas City Royals tonight. He has struggled through 14 starts, posting a 3-5 record with a 4.64 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. He has also recorded a 5.27 xFIP and a 5.15 SIERA in those games. Duffy has given up 39.7% fly ball and 12.9% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has allowed his opponents to post a 37.7% hard hit rate to go along with a 15.3% soft hit rate. He boasts 19.1% strikeout and 9.8% swinging strike rates this season. Duffy has been worse against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .286 average with a .468 slugging percentage and a .372 wOBA. He has also given up a .257/.450/.325 line to right-handed batters this season, though. Furthermore, Duffy has struggled at home, where he has given up a .261/.462/.337 line in 2019. The White Sox don’t feature an elite offense, but the weather in Kansas City is perfect for hitters, and Duffy is likely to continue his 2019 struggles tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Jesse Chavez
Chavez has thrown relatively well this season, posting a 3-4 record with a 3.84 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP through 38 games (8 starts). He owns a 4.43 xFIP and a 4.24 SIERA in those games, as well. Chavez enters this game with 35.2% fly ball and 15.7% HR/FB rates, as well. His opponents have posted a 39.3% hard hit rate to go along with a 16.4% soft hit rate in 2019. Chavez brings 21.7% strikeout and 6.2% swinging strike rates into this game. Tonight, he’s a +113 underdog in a game set at 10.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 5.6 runs.
Chavez gets a matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who feature a strong team wOBA, but also strikeout at an above average rate on this slate. Chavez has been better against left-handed batters, holding them to a .221 average with a .317 slugging percentage and a .260 wOBA. He’s cheap enough that he won’t ruin lineups if he doesn’t score well, while he has 30 fantasy points potential. It’s a relatively low risk, high upside option because of his price tag tonight, making him a solid option in all leagues.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Jason Kipnis
Kipnis’ numbers don’t pop off the page, as he’s only hitting .189 with a .297 slugging percentage and a .576 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns two extra-base hits with four RBIs and one stolen base in those games. Kipnis has also scored fantasy points in 9 of his last 10 games. He also owns 37% hard hit and 33% fly ball rates with a 92 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He brings 0.138 wOBA and 0.11 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Kipnis gets a plus matchup against Spencer Turnbull, who has been outlined above. He’s hitting fourth in the Cleveland Indians lineup, and he’s surprisingly cheap for this slate. Kipnis is extremely safe, while also possessing enough upside to be considered in all leagues tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
