Pitchers
Walker Buehler- When you first open your apps, or the sites on desktop today, I imagine readers of this article rubbing there eyes and saying “This can’t be the pitchers for a 15 game slate!” Oh yes, friends, it can. For being one of the best slates of week (in terms of size) we are loaded with downright terrible pitching plays, which is going to make this an incredible GPP slate given the amount of offenses we will be interested in. At the same time, it’s going to leave us with a thin pitcher pool, one that starts with Walker Buehler at the top tier against the Phillies. Buehler had a rocky start to 2019, but has really turned it on as the season has wore on. Over the last 30 days, he sports a 2.82 SIERA with 33% strikeouts and just 1% walks! He strikes guys out, and doesn’t issue free passes, something that you know is crucial for me when evaluating pitchers daily. He also has a positive matchup, as the Phils project to send six righties to the plate tonight. Buehler has struck out 30% of right-handed batters this season. All-in-all, Buehler is one of the only (maybe THE only) pitcher I feel somewhat “safe” with tonight, and that’s why he is my top overall play in all formats, especially at an affordable price.
Brandon Woodruff- It’s not often that a pitcher against the stingy Atlanta Braves offense is my second pitcher in this section, but that’s exactly what this slate has to offer. As I’ve written a few times already this season, Woodruff is is full-on breakout mode for the Brew Crew this season posting a 3.54 SIERA with 29% strikeouts. Furthermore, he’s been video game-like at home in Miller Park, where this game takes place, owning a 2.92 xFIP with 33% strikeouts. The Braves are certainly a tough matchup, but we have nearly two seasons worth of elite home numbers from him, and he simply is not priced as such coming in at $8,700 on DraftKings. I don’t know if I would be able to comfortably pair him with Buehler and still get all of the bats I want, but for now I am tagging him as playable in all formats.
Jack Flaherty- Welcome to Jack Flaherty chalk night: part…four? I feel like there have been a number of slates this season where Flaherty ends up chalky due to his cheap price tag, and with no aces on this slate, this fits the mold as another one of those nights. The problem here is, I really don’t like this matchup for him, but there is also nobody else in this tier or below that I would feel comfortable bumping above him. He’s been pretty up-and-down this season, but the surface numbers are good with a 4.12 SIERA, 26% strikeouts and a wipe out slider. His biggest issue is that he hasn’t figured out left-handed batters yet, which is not necessarily a great thing when the Pirates can send out five or six lefties. The good news is, he’s been much better at home this season, where this game will take place. Overall, even with the tough matchup, he is just too cheap for the upside he presents, and while I want to target strikeouts in DFS, we don’t need a ton of them at his price. If there were other strong options in this tier tonight, I would tell you, but there just aren’t which means we have to keep Flaherty on our radar in all formats.
Building Blocks
We have another Coors Field slate, with some really positive spots for offense again. Even after last night’s dud, this game will be the focus for cash game builds — with Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story my two preferred spend-ups on this slate.
Nelson Cruz- As you’ll see later in my Final Thoughts cheat sheet, the Minnesota Twins are one of my favorite spots in tournaments against Steven Matz. Matz has been absolutely horrific over the last month sporting a 6.48 SIERA with 11% walks compared to 9% strikeouts. Not only has he been that bad over the last month, but this game takes place on the road in Minnesota, where Matz has been victimized all season. In 42 IP on the road this season, Matz owns a 5.60 xFIP with 42% hard hits allowed. We know that he throws his sinker over 50% of the time, which is good news for lefty-masher Nelson Cruz who boasts a .290 ISO with 50% hard hits against the pitch over the last two seasons. SPOILER ALERT: Cruz is my HR pick for tonight’s slate!
Kyle Schwarber- Another strong outfield play is Kyle Schwarber, who I’m honestly getting tired of writing up and wish that the sites would just appropriately price him. He homered again last night, and he should be locked into the lead-off spot tonight against Anthony DeSclafani. Tony Disco is another guy who has yet to figure out left-handed batters, and he has surrendered 49% fly balls and hard hits to them this season. Couple that with positive hitting weather in Chicago, and Schwarber’s .258 ISO vs right-handed pitching and you can see why he is a core play for me again tonight.
Matt Chapman- If you can’t quite get up to Nolan Arenado, I would recommend dropping down to Matt Chapman in his matchup with Marco Gonzales. Over the last two seasons, Matt Chapman owns a .362 wOBA against left-handed pitching, with a .223 ISO. This season, Matt Chapman is 12th overall in average exit velocity (92.9) and 6th overall in hits greater than 95 MPH (135). At only $4,500 on DraftKings, he has legitimate double-dong upside at sub-10% ownership.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
