Pitchers
James Paxton- Monday night presents us with a bunch of high-upside pitchers at the top-tier, the problem being that all of them come with significant risk to go along with that upside, and it’s going to leave us with some interesting decisions to make in cash games. Two starts ago, I wrote this about James Paxton:
Paxton’s first season in pinstripes has not exactly been what they expected, but also hasn’t been as bad as it probably seems to casual baseball fans. He owns a 4.08 SIERA with 29% strikeouts and 10% walks, the control issues is what gets him into trouble more times than not, the strikeouts are still there, and he has actually been getting extremely unlucky. His ERA is on par with his SIERA, but over the last 30 days (5 starts) he has been victimized by a .377 BABIP with sub-30% hard hits allowed in three of those five starts. We get someone with the upside of Paxton at an extremely affordable price tag of $8,700 on FanDuel and $8,900 on DraftKings tonight, in a plus match with the Mets. The Mets are striking out 24% of the time against left-handed pitching this season, and they rank outside the top-15 in walk rate, so hopefully those 10% walks from Paxton won’t be as much of an issue today. He doesn’t seem like a cash game play, but at his price he is playable in all formats for me on this slate.
He responded with another game in which BABIP did him in, but in his next start against the Tampa Bay Rays, the team he faces tonight, he turned things around. Not only was he unlucky with BABIP AGAIN against the Rays, but he was able to weather the storm and struck out 11 over six innings. The matchup favors him again tonight as the Rays strike out 26% of the time against left-handed pitching — good for second-most in the league. Paxton is in the second-tier when it comes to pricing tonight — $9,000 on FanDuel and $9,300 on DraftKings — and on a slate where all of the top options come with risk, I am comfortable taking one of the cheaper options in the best overall matchup.
Jake Junis- Well, things got ugly quick here didn’t they? With Coors Field and the Dodgers being obvious offensive spots on this slate, we are going to want to save with our SP2 (or maybe even our SP on FanDuel) and it’s just not going to be possible to spend up for two high-risk options in cash games. That leaves me looking at Jake Junis in the mid-tier in a matchup with the Chicago White Sox. Junis advanced metrics don’t jump off he page, which is why he is priced where he is, but the offensive numbers of the White Sox certainly don’t either. This season, the White Sox are tenth-worst in wRC+ against right-handed pitching, with the fourth-lowest ISO and the third-highest strikeout rate. Junis is not allowing nearly as many fly-balls as he did last season, and he is someone that is capable of big starts in elite matchups, such as this one. Overall, for his price, I prefer Junis to the likes of Rick Porcello and Adam Plutko in the mid-tier for all formats.
Joe Musgrove- Musgrove would probably be my favorite pitcher on this slate (when factoring in price), especially on DraftKings, if we didn’t have some legitimate weather concerns for this game. This is something that we need to monitor up until lock, and hopefully the rain ends up clearing enough that we can safely roster Musgrove against the Cardinals. Musgrove is someone that I’ve written up a few times over the last month, citing that he made a change to his pitch mix that could present positive results. Over the last 30 days, Musgrove owns a 3.46 SIERA with 26% strikeouts and 2% walks…quite a bit better numbers than someone that’s priced at $5,800 on DraftKings. The Cardinals are also an offense that has struggled mightily over the last month, and I have no fear of picking on them with a right-handed pitcher. All-in-all, if the weather ends up being okay, he is far and away my favorite SP2 candidate at his price, and a great tournament play on FanDuel.
Daniel Norris (DK Only)- This is a DK-only play for me, and it’s who I will honestly consider as an SP2 should we not be able to play Joe Musgrove. Is Daniel Norris a good pitcher? Probably not, but is he priced at $4,200 in a matchup with the Cleveland Indians? Yes, he is. The Indians come into tonight fifth-worst in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers this season, with a bottom-ten ISO and 22% strikeouts. Norris posted 15 DK points in this matchup earlier this season, and at $4,200, what do we really need from him? 11-12 fantasy points? On a slate where we are prioritizing bats, if I can’t roster Musgrove out of safety I will consider dropping all the way down rather than taking a similar high-risked pitcher for $3,000 more in salary.
Note: People are going to play Rick Porcello against the Blue Jays tonight…Daniel Norris is the same (or better) pitcher than Rick Porcello…he’s $2,600 less on DK…do with that what you will.
Batters
Jose Altuve- The Astros as a team are in a good spot tonight against Griffin Canning, but this is 100% about price again and it’s starting to get really old. Jose Altuve is one of the better hitters in the league, and more importantly he sits atop arguably the best offense in the MLB. Sure, he was hurt for a while, but his spot in this lineup alone is worth more than $3,800 on DraftKings. Canning has strikeout ability, that’s for sure, but he also surrenders 49% fly balls and 43% hard hits to right-handed batters…which could end poorly against a team like the Houston Astros who are packed with power from top to bottom.
Joc Pederson- The Dodgers are probably my favorite spot on this slate outside of the Rockies game given their matchup with Zach Eflin. Eflin is someone who I think can be good, but he has yet to figure out left-handed batters and this is one of the worst possible matchups for him. We know that Pederson crushes righties (.310 ISO), but he also matches up well with Eflin’s pitch mix. Eflin throws fastballs over 45% of the time against left-handed batters, and sliders 29% of the time. Pederson boasts an ISO over .300 against each of these pitches over the last two seasons, and at $4,200 on DraftKings this is a way to get cheap exposure to one of the top offenses on this slate.
Coors Field (duh)- We have a pair of awful pitchers squaring off tonight in Dereck Rodriguez and Chi Chi Gonzalez. This is a slate where we can save money at pitcher, and jam in Rockies pretty easily on DraftKings (and FanDuel). I will 100% be targeting 4/5 of them on each of my cash games teams, using the cheap pitchers above and Altuve/Pederson to fit them in.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
