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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies will make up the “Chalk Stack” once again. They continue to play at an elite level, ranking fourth in the MLB in runs scored, 20th in home runs, fifth in team batting average, and eighth in OPS through 92 games. Colorado has been at their best at home, where they boast a .315 average with a .536 slugging percentage and a .912 OPS through 46 home they. They are averaging 6.9 runs and 4.4 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Rockies are currently -135 favorites in a game set at 14 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 7.5 runs.
Colorado gets an elite matchup against Dereck Rodriguez, who has struggled through 17 games (8 starts) in 2019. He has posted a 3-5 record with a 5.27 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP in those games. He has also struggled with a 5.32 xFIP and a 5.46 SIERA this season. Rodriguez has held his opponents to a 32.1% fly ball rate, but he has given up a 16.9% HR/FB rate, as well. He has allowed his opponents to post a 45.7% hard hit rate this season, while recording only a 10.6% soft hit rate. Rodriguez’s strikeout rate sits at only 14.5% to go along with an 8% swinging strike rate. He has struggled most against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .277 average with a .462 slugging percentage and a .329 wOBA. He has given up a .237/.462/.349 line to left-handed batters, as well. Furthermore, Rodriguez has allowed his opponents to post a .245/.481/.338 line on the road this season. Both sides of this game are appealing, but the Rockies will feature more ownership, and make the better stack in cash games tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers have found plenty of offensive success this season, ranking seventh in the MLB in runs scored, fourth in home runs, eighth in team batting average, and third in OPS through 95 games. The Dodgers have been better at home, but they’re still hitting .250 with a .437 slugging percentage and a .773 OPS through 46 road games. They are also averaging 5.1 runs and 3.5 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Tonight, Los Angeles is a -173 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 5.5 runs.
The Dodgers get a nearly perfect matchup against Zach Eflin. He has thrown well, posting a 7-8 record with a 3.78 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP through 17 starts. He’s due for regression, though, as he owns a 4.79 xFIP and a 4.70 SIERA. Eflin hahs given up 38.8% fly ball and 14.3% HR/FB rates in 2019, as well. His opponents enter this game with a 38.7% hard hit rate against him, while he has recorded only a 15.9% soft hit rate. He also brings 19.4% strikeout and 9.4% swinging strike rates into this game. Eflin has been significantly worse against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .269 average with a .544 slugging percentage and a .357 wOBA. Most importantly, his xFIP balloons to 5.31 against left-handed batters. His fly ball and HR/FB rates also increase to 43.6% and 19%, respectively, against lefties. He boasts 45.6% hard hit and 10.3% soft hit rates in that situation this season. The Dodgers feature a plethora of powerful left-handed batters throughout their lineup, and they come with tremendous upside on this slate tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Detroit Tigers
The Detroit Tigers have struggled quite a bit through 89 games this season. They currently rank 29th in the MLB in runs scored, home runs, and OPS, while also ranking 28th in team batting average. They have been better on the road, where they are hitting .238 with a .402 slugging percentage and a .704 OPS. The Tigers are also averaging 4.1 runs and 3.4 extra-base hits per game away from Detroit. They are +184 underdogs in a game set at 10.5 runs tonight, but they still own an implied run total of 4.3 runs.
Adam Plutko will be taking the mound for the Cleveland Indians tonight. He has struggled through seven games (six starts) this season, recording a 3-1 record with a 4.95 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. He has also posted a 5.09 xFIP and a 4.74 SIERA in those games. Plutko has struggled with home runs, giving up 44.4% fly ball and 19.2% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 34.2% hard hit rate, while recording a 17.9% soft hit rate. He has struggled a bit with a 17.5% strikeout rate to go along with an 8.8% swinging strike rate. Plutko has been at his worst against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .271 average with a .614 slugging percentage and a .369 wOBA. He has also allowed lefties to hit for a .264/.444/.311 line, though. He has given up a .221/.519/.319 line at home this season, as well. The Tigers don’t necessarily feature a dominant offense, but they have flashed in recent games, and they feature a plethora of low price tags throughout their lineup. They are a high upside option that won’t cost much salary.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Joe Musgrove
Musgrove has seen mixed results in 2019, posting a 6-7 record with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP through 19 games (18 starts). He also boasts a 4.52 xFIP and a 4.50 SIERA this season. He owns a 35.5% fly ball rate in 2019, while holding his opponents to 9.3% HR/FB rate. Musgrove has also allowed a 40.2% hard hit rate, while recording a 17.6% soft hit. He enters this game with a 19.9% strikeout rate, but his 11.3% swinging strike rate suggests he could find more success in that area. He’s a +126 underdog in a game set at 8 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 4.4 runs.
Musgrove gets a matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals, who rank second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while posting a below average team wOBA, as well. Musgrove has been significantly better against right-handed batters, holding them to a .211 average with a .368 slugging percentage and a .273 wOBA. He has also held his opponents to a .245/.335/.280 line on the road in 2019. Musgrove is extremely cheap, and he makes a solid option in all leagues tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Jordan Luplow
Luplow has been ice cold recently, posting a .176 average with a .176 slugging percentage and a .510 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns only one RBI over that span, as well. With that being said, he owns 42% hard hit and 57% fly ball rates with a 92 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days (5 games). Luplow also brings 0.196 wOBA and 0.25 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game.
He gets a plus matchup against Daniel Norris, who has struggled with a 4.64 xFIP and a 4.71 SIERA this season. He has given up 34.2% fly ball and 15% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 37.8% hard hit rate, while recording only a 13.5% soft hit rate this season. Luplow is hitting fourth in the Cleveland Indians lineup, and he’s far too cheap for this particular matchup.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
