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Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Caleb Smith
Caleb Smith recently returned from injury, and that has caused his price tag to drop. He has performed well through 13 starts, posting a 3.85 xFIP and a 3.64 SIERA in those games. He has struggled with home runs, posting 47.9% fly ball and 18.8% HR/FB rates through 72 innings. Smith has given up a 39.3% hard hit to go along with a 16.8% soft hit rate in those games, as well. Most importantly, he enters this game with elite 31.1% strikeout and 14.6% swinging strike rates this season. Smith will also be throwing in Miami, where his xFIP drops to 2.76 and his strikeout rate increases to 34.6%. He gets an elite matchup against the New York Mets, who have struggled offensively this season. While I would generally be a bit worried about a pitcher coming back from injury, he threw 95 pitches in his last start, meaning he should see full pitches in this game. The Marlins are currently -110 favorites in a game set at 8 runs, and Smith makes an elite option for a low price tag on this slate.
Jason’s Reaction: Whenever the Miami Marlins are the betting favorites in a game, there is a reason. Smith is that reason tonight. I love this recommendation.
Jason’s Pick: Gerrit Cole
Gerrit Cole makes for an interesting tournament option tonight against the Texas Rangers. It is unlikely that he is very highly owned, seeing as he is travelling into Texas, and the Vegas line for this game is set at 10 total runs. Cole is a -210 betting favorite to pick up the victory, giving the Rangers an implied run total of 4.1. Most importantly, the Rangers strikeout 0.284 times per at-bat, and Cole is the only pitcher available on DraftKings tonight with a strikeout prediction over 10. The Rangers are known for their power, but Cole is currently sporting a low 25% fly ball rate and high 53% ground ball rate over his last 2 games. He rarely surrenders home runs, and he could get out of this game unscathed. There are, however, admittedly better cash game options (stack the Miami Marlins and New York Mets game).
Justin’s Reaction: I understand using Cole tonight, but I likely won’t be going there. He’s too expensive and playing in Texas for me to pay that price tag.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Brandon Belt
Prior to the All Star Break, Brandon Belt had caught fire, as he’s hitting .316 with a .447 slugging percentage and a .882 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns three extra-base hits (one home run) and three RBIs over that span, as well. Belt gets a plus matchup against Chase Anderson in Milwaukee’s hitter-friendly stadium. He has been significantly better on the road this season, where he owns a .265/.490/.866 line through 43 games. Belt has also been at his best against right-handed pitching, as he enters this game with 0.025 wOBA and 0.061 ISO differentials against righties. He’s leading off for the San Francisco Giants, and still comes with a low price tag. Belt is a player that goes overlooked on a nightly basis, and he makes a solid option on the first slate back from the All Star Break.
Jason’s Reaction: I’ve been waiting for a Belt breakout for about four years now. I’m glad it is finally happening when the San Francisco Giants are completely out of playoff contention.
Jason’s Pick: Jake Lamb
Jake Lamb is just starting to settle into his new role with the Arizona Diamondbacks after a prolonged absence due to a quadriceps injury. David Peralta is out with a shoulder injury, and Lamb should see consistent playing time, which should help him to start hitting more consistently. In his last 10 games, he has a .233 batting average with 1 home run and 4 RBIs. More importantly, his advanced metrics are very solid, he is hitting in the heart of the batting order, he is multiple-position eligible (first base and third base), and his price tag is far too low. Over the last 15 days, Lamb has an average batted ball distance of 250 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 97 MPH, a fly ball rate over 40%, and a hard hit rate over 50%. Adam Wainwright is on the mound for the St. Louis Cardinals, and Lamb has 0.109 ISO and 0.207 wOBA differentials against right-handed pitching. All the stars are aligned here, and Lamb can be rostered in all leagues.
Justin’s Reaction: Lamb is cheap, gets a plus matchup, and makes sense. I have no issues here.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Nicholas Castellanos
Nicholas Castellanos is another player that entered the All Star Break on fire. Prior to the break, he posted a .341 average with a .568 slugging percentage and a .951 OPS over his last 10 games. He also boasts six extra-base hits (two home runs) and seven RBIs in those games. Similarly to Belt, Castellanos has been at his best on the road, where he owns a .306/.563/.933 line through 39 games. He gets an elite matchup against Danny Duffy, who has struggled against nearly everyone this season. Castellanos has also dominated left-handed pitching this season, as he enters this game with 0.103 wOBA and 0.077 ISO differentials against lefties. He’s hitting near the top of the Detroit Tigers’ offense, and he’s far too cheap on this slate. Castellanos makes a great option in all leagues tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: Justin is on fire right out of the gate after the ASB. Nice recommendation.
Jason’s Pick: Mike Trout
Mike Trout has been absolutely unbelievable this season, and his price tag is too low on DraftKings. Is it even possible to say that someone’s price tag is too low when it is simultaneously above $5.0K? Yes. In his last 10 games, Trout is hitting just under .300 with 6 home runs and 11 RBIs. On the season, he is hitting 0.093 HR/AB, and stealing 0.113 bases per game. He has incredible upside with a unique combination of speed and power, and he is entering tonight’s game with 0.076 wOBA and 0.155 ISO differentials. The Los Angeles Angels are projected at 5.7 runs tonight via Vegas, and Trout is expected to hit second in the batting order. As far as advanced metrics are concerned, Trout’s are about as good as it gets. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 278 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 96 MPH, a fly ball rate just under 70%, and a hard hit rate of 45%. His ground ball rate is under 10%! That is nearly unheard of. Roster Trout in all leagues.
Justin’s Reaction: I will never say no to Mike Trout. Get him in your lineups if you can.
Be sure to follow Justin (@BalesSJustin) and Jason (@BalesTJason) on Twitter!
