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Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Tyler Mahle
Tyler Mahle has gotten a bit unlucky this season, posting a 4.35 ERA through 15 starts, while also boasting a 3.82 xFIP and a 3.97 SIERA. Unfortunately, he’s due for quite a bit of regression at home, which is where this game will be played tonight. Still, Mahle comes with strikeout upside, as he owns a 24.4% strikeout rate to go along with an 8.9% swinging strike rate in 2019. He also gets a plus matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. Mahle is essentially a boom or bust option, as the Brewers own plenty of upside as an offense, but they also give their opposing pitchers plenty of strikeout potential. There aren’t many solid pitching options on this slate, and Mahle comes with a relatively low price tag.
Jason’s Reaction: Mahle is my favorite value option at the pitcher position. This slate is rough, and Mahle should be able to score just enough to keep fantasy owner’s heads above water.
Jason’s Pick: Logan Allen
The new 22-year-old in San Diego has impressed in two consecutive games now, and Vegas seems ready to admit that he may be the real deal. In his first major league start, Allen threw 7 innings, allowing 0 runs, striking out 5 batters, and scoring 26.2 fantasy points. That game was at home. He followed up that performance with a 17.5 fantasy point outing against the Baltimore Orioles in Baltimore, striking out 5 batters over 6 innings, and allowing 2 earned runs. His 1.39 ERA is not going to stay that low for long, but a matchup against the San Francisco Giants should be enough to maintain it for another week. Tonight’s game will be at home, which always helps young pitchers. This game is currently set at 8.5 total runs, and the Padres are -160 favorites, giving the Giants an implied run total of only 3.8. Allen is not a strikeout machine by any stretch of the imagination, but with only five games scheduled for tonight, two of which take place in Cincinnati and Texas, he makes a lot of sense in cash games.
Justin’s Reaction: Allen is certainly going to see regression, but his advanced metrics are at least decent. He’ll likely skip past that in this matchup, and he’s probably the best option on this awful slate.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Manny Machado
Manny Machado has been one of the hottest players in the MLB recently, posting a .356 average with a .822 slugging percentage and a 1.218 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 9 extra-base hits (6 home runs), 16 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over that span. Machado boasts 47% hard hit and 63% fly ball rates with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has been better against left-handed pitching, but he gets an elite matchup against Jeff Samardzija, who has struggled through 16 starts this season. Machado is expected to hit third in the San Diego Padres offense, and there are more than enough salary relief options on this slate to easily fit him into your lineups.
Jason’s Reaction: Machado’s advanced metrics are unbelievable right now. He can be considered in all leagues.
Jason’s Pick: Joey Votto
The Cincinnati Reds get a good matchup tonight against the Milwaukee Brewers. Adrian Houser is scheduled to start the game, but he should be exiting rather quickly. Joey Votto is expected to hit third in the Reds’ batting order, and Vegas has this game set at 10 total runs. In his last 10 games, Votto is hitting just under .400 with 2 home runs and 5 RBIs. He also has a stolen base, which adds to his overall upside. With over 10 fantasy points per game over his last 10 games, Votto can be rostered in cash games, especially considering how low his price tag is comparatively to others at his same position. In the last 15 days, Votto has an average batted ball distance of 262 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 98 MPH, a fly ball rate over 50%, and a hard hit rate just under 50%. His advanced metrics suggest that, despite how well he has been hitting of recent, he is not going to slow down. Do not hesitate to roster Votto in all leagues.
Justin’s Reaction: Votto likely would’ve been my pick here if you didn’t beat me to the article. Great call.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Franmil Reyes
Franmil Reyes is another San Diego Padres player who can be considered tonight. He gets the matchup against Jeff Samardzija, who is a pitcher I’ll be attacking on this slate. Reyes has also caught fire over his last 10 games, posting a .303 average with a .758 slugging percentage and a 1.136 OPS over that span. He has recorded five home runs and eight RBIs in those games, as well. Reyes also enters this game with 56% hard hit and 52% fly ball rates to go along with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He’s a more powerful option against right-handed pitching, as he brings a 0.072 ISO differential against right-handed pitching into this game. Reyes is expected to hit fifth in the Padres lineup, and he makes an elite option on this slate.
Jason’s Reaction: If Kyle Schwarber wasn’t so cheap, I was going to recommend Reyes here. Great recommendation. Looks like we are on the same page tonight.
Jason’s Pick: Kyle Schwarber
Okay, DraftKings… seriously? Do I even have to justify this recommendation? Kyle Schwarber is under $4.0K tonight against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Yes, he has been struggling over the last couple of weeks, and over his last 10 games, he is hitting under .200 with 1 home run and 3 RBIs. That said, he is still hitting first for the Chicago Cubs. He still has home run upside. He enters tonight’s game with positive 0.057 ISO and 0.046 wOBA differentials, and his advanced metrics are decent. The Cubs are expected to score just under five runs tonight, and Schwarber is generally involved in run production. He doesn’t need much to hit value, and he has the ability to score 20+ fantasy points. Schwarber is an elite tournament option for the 100th time this season.
Justin’s Reaction: You hit the nail on the head. 3/3. Great recommendations.
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