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Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
San Diego Padres
The San Diego Padres have seen mixed results this season, ranking 19th in the MLB in runs scored, 10th in home runs, and 20th in team batting average and OPS through 83 games. They have struggled at times at home, where they own a .232 average with a .408 slugging percentage and a .706 OPS. The Padres are also averaging 3.9 runs and 2.7 extra-base hits per game through 44 home games this season. San Diego is currently a -157 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, and they own an implied run total of only 4.5 runs tonight.
Jeff Samardzija will be taking the mound for the San Francisco Giants tonight. He has struggled through 16 starts this season, posting a 4-7 record with a 4.52 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. He has also posted a 5.09 xFIP and a 4.81 SIERA in those starts. Samardzija has given up a 43.1% fly ball rate this season to go along with a 12.8% HR/FB rate. He has also allowed his opponents to record a 40.9% hard hit rate, while posting only a 12.4% soft hit rate in 2019. Samardzija has also struggled a bit with 19.9% strikeout and 9.3% swinging strike rates this season. He has been worse against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .246 average with a .467 slugging percentage and a .331 wOBA. He has also given up a .258/.421/.299 line to right-handed batters. Furthermore, Samardzija has allowed his opponents to post a .267/.497/.339 line on the road this season. While San Diego has struggled at home, they feature an offense with plenty of high upside option. There won’t be too many low owned offenses on only a five game slate, but the Padres could go overlooked in a pitcher friendly stadium.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Tyler Mahle
Mahle has seen his fair share of ups and downs in 2019, recording a 2-8 record with a 4.36 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP through 15 starts. He does own a 3.83 xFIP and a 3.97 SIERA, though. He has held his opponents to a 32.5% fly ball rate, although he has allowed a 19.7% HR/FB rate. Mahle has allowed his opponents to hit for a 38.4% hard hit rate, while posting only a 13.9% soft hit rate. He does own a 24.4% strikeout rate to go along with an 8.9% swinging strike rate. He’s a -106 favorite in a game set at 10 runs tonight, and his opponents feature an implied run total of 5.0 runs.
He gets a matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They come with quite a bit of upside as an offense, which is worrisome for Mahle, but we’re attacking strikeouts on a smaller slate. Mahle has been significantly better against right-handed batters, holding them to a .232 average with a .339 slugging percentage and a .271 wOBA this season. He has also held his opponents to a .194/.316/.273 line at home, although he’s due for regression in Cincinnati. Mahle isn’t safe enough for cash, but this is a tournament slate. He’s a strong salary relief option in tournaments.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Kyle Schwarber
Schwarber continues to be one of the most ridiculously priced players on a nightly basis. He’s hitting .237 with a .447 slugging percentage and a .722 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns four extra-base hits (two home runs) and five RBIs over that span. Schwarber boasts 47% hard hit and 44% fly ball rates with a 92 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also enters this game with 0.046 wOBA and 0.057 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Schwarber gets a plus matchup against Trevor Williams, who has posted a 4.54 xFIP and a 4.45 SIERA through 11 starts. He has also allowed 38.2% fly ball and 10.3% HR/FB rates. Furthermore, Williams’ opponents have recorded a 36.5% hard hit rate to go along with an 18.3% soft hit rate this season. He has struggled more against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .294 average with a .431 slugging percentage and a .327 wOBA. Schwarber is expected to lead off for the Chicago Cubs, and he’s an outstanding option for an extremely low price tag tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
