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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Oakland A’s
The Oakland A’s make up the “Chalk Stack” on this smaller slate. They have found quite a bit of offensive success this season, ranking 13th in the MLB in runs scored, eighth in home runs, 19th in team batting average, and 15th in OPS. Oakland has been at their best on the road this season, where they own a .263 average with a .460 slugging percentage and a .794 OPS through 31 games. They are also averaging 5.8 runs and 3.8 extra-base hits per game on the road this season. The A’s are -127 favorites in a game set at 10.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on this slate at 5.6 runs.
Oakland gets a great matchup against Adrian Sampson tonight. He has posted a 4-3 record with a 4.14 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP through 13 games (6 starts). He also owns a 4.97 xFIP and a 4.51 SIERA this season. Sampson has allowed a 40.7% fly ball rate in 2019, although he has held his opponents to a 10.4% HR/FB rate. He has also allowed his opponents to record a 45.8% hard hit rate, while posting only a 14.6% soft hit rate. Sampson also owns an 18% strikeout rate to go along with a 10% swinging strike rate in 2019. He has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .318 average with a .553 slugging percentage and a .386 wOBA. He has also allowed lefties to record a .283/.434/.320 line this season. Surprisingly, Sampson has been better at home in 2019, but he’s still allowing his opponents to post a .287/.447/.324 slash line in Texas this season. The A’s are an offense that features plenty of upside and consistency on the road, and they make an elite option on this six game slate.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers have featured one of the best offenses in the MLB this season, ranking fourth in the league in runs scored, seventh in home runs, and third in team batting average and OPS. The Dodgers have been better at home this season, but they are still hitting .245 with a .430 slugging percentage and a .763 OPS over 32 road games. They are averaging 5.0 runs and 3.4 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. Los Angeles is a -215 favorite in a game set at 8 runs tonight, and they feature an implied run total of 4.9 runs.
The Dodgers get a matchup against Jeff Samardzija, who has struggled through 12 starts this season. He enters this game with a 3-4 record to go along with a 3.61 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. Samardzija has gotten a bit lucky, though, as he also owns a 5.06 xFIP and a 4.83 SIERA this season. He has allowed his opponents to hit for a 45.7% fly ball rate, while giving up only a 13.1% HR/FB rate this season. He has given up a 40.1% hard hit rate in 2019, while recording only a 12.3% soft hit rate. Samardzija brings 19.8% strikeout and 8.9% swinging strike rates into this game. He has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .252 average with a .407 slugging percentage and a .293 wOBA this season. He has also allowed lefties to hit for a .204/.416/.296 line this season, as well. The Dodgers will be playing in one of the more pitcher friendly stadiums in the MLB, but Samardzija is due for regression, and Los Angeles features more than enough power throughout their lineup to find success in any stadium.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Steven Matz
Matz has seen plenty of ups and downs this season, but he has looked outstanding at home. Through four home starts, he owns a 2-0 record with a 1.50 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. He has also posted a 3.50 xFIP in those games. Matz’s strikeout rate skyrockets to 26.6% in New York in 2019, as well. He has held his opponents to 31.6% fly ball and 11.1% HR/FB rates at home this season. Furthermore, they own 41% hard hit and 19.7% soft hit rates in New York. Tonight, he’s a -112 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 4.0 runs.
Matz gets a plus matchup against the Colorado Rockies, who aren’t nearly the same offense on the road. They rank fourth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking second last in team wOBA. He has been better against right-handed batters this season, holding them to a .250 average with a .466 slugging percentage and a .321 wOBA. He has also held his opponents to a .238/.381/.292 line at home this season. Matz is cheap enough to be considered in all leagues tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Kyle Schwarber
Schwarber continues to be mispriced, as he’s hitting .231 with a .487 slugging percentage and an .805 OPS over his last 10 games. He also owns four extra-base hits (three home runs), four RBIs, and one steal over that span. He has posted 38% hard hit and 44% fly ball rates with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Schwarber enters this game with 0.023 wOBA and 0.059 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching, as well.
He gets a matchup against Jack Flaherty tonight. Flaherty enters this game with 37.2% fly ball and 18% HR/FB rates. He has also allowed a 42.4% hard hit rate in 2019. He has been at his worst against left-handed batters in 2019, allowing them to hit for a .256 average with a .479 slugging percentage and a .331 wOBA. Schwarber is expected to lead off for the Chicago Cubs, and he makes a strong option in all leagues tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
