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Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Gerrit Cole
There are a plethora of elite pitching options on this slate, but Gerrit Cole is the safest option. He hasn’t necessarily posted the best of numbers this season, recording a 5-5 record with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP through 13 starts. With that being said, he’s due for positive regression, as he owns a 2.52 xFIP and a 2.74 SIERA this season. Cole also boasts an elite 37.4% strikeout rate to go along with a 15.8% swinging strike rate in 2019. He gets a great matchup against the Baltimore Orioles, a projected lineup that features a strikeout rate over 25% against right-handed pitching. They also rank in the bottom-five of this slate in team wOBA. Cole is a -329 favorite in a game set at 8 runs tonight, and the Orioles feature an implied run total of only 2.8. He makes an elite cash option, even for the high price tag.
Jason’s Reaction: I agree. Gerrit Cole is the best pitching option on the slate tonight, if price is not of concern.
Jason’s Pick: Jacob deGrom
The best pitching option on tonight’s MLB slate is Gerrit Cole. However, the best pitching option on tonight’s MLB slate, if price is taken into consideration, is Jacob deGrom. The Colorado Rockies are not one of the better hitting teams in the league outside of Coors Field, and they strikeout 0.277 times per at-bat, one of the highest rates on the slate. The New York Mets are -200 favorites in a game set at 7.5 runs, giving them Rockies a lowly implied run total of 3.1, the second lowest on the slate behind Gerrit Cole. The Mets’ ace has a strikeout prediction of 8.2, which is the second highest on the slate, behind… (guess who?) Cole. With a ground ball rate over 55%, deGrom shouldn’t be too worried about the long shot. His speed is up 1 MPH from his 12-month average, and his strike percentage is ridiculously close to 70%. He can pitch deep into games, and despite a few struggles this season, he is finally returning to form.
Justin’s Reaction: deGrom is one of my favorite pitching options on this slate. He may be better suited for tournaments, though, as I’m not sure I can get to both Cole and deGrom in cash games.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: David Freese
When the Los Angeles Dodgers face a left-handed pitcher, I play David Freese. He has been playing at an elite level recently, posting a .481 average with a .963 slugging percentage and a 1.496 OPS over his last 10 games. He also owns seven extra-base hits (three home runs) and nine RBIs in those games. Freese boasts 40% hard hit and 36% fly ball rates with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He gets a plus matchup against Drew Pomeranz, and Freese enters this game with 0.074 wOBA and 0.064 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching. He’s expected to hit third in the Los Angeles lineup, and the only downfall is the park factor tonight. I’m willing to overlook that for Freese’s price tag on this slate.
Jason’s Reaction: This recommendation makes a lot of sense. There is definitely value to be had with Freese in tournaments.
Jason’s Pick: Joey Votto
Joey Votto makes for an interesting value option at the first base position tonight on DraftKings. He gets a great matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies in Philadelphia, which is a very hitter-friendly ballpark. Votto is expected to hit second for the Cincinnati Reds, and he enters tonight’s game with a solid 0.043 ISO differential against right-handed pitching. The weather is fine in Philadelphia for tonight’s game at around 75 degrees and a slight breeze. Most importantly, in the last 15 days, Votto has an average batted ball distance of 221 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate over 35%, and a hard hit rate just under 40%. Votto is hitting .386 in his last 10 games with three extra base hits and three RBIs, averaging over eight fantasy points per game. He struggled early in the season, but it looks like Votto is finally ready to turn it up a notch, and his price tag does not indicate that.
Justin’s Reaction: I understand using Votto tonight because of his price tag, but he truly lacks the upside that others at his position have. I’m not opposed to using him, but I’m also not forcing him into my lineups.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Khris Davis
Khris Davis has quietly been playing well recently, as he’s hitting .289 with a .474 slugging percentage and an .815 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns three extra-base hits (two home runs) and five RBIs over that span, as well. Davis also owns 60% hard hit and 40% fly ball rates with a 98 MPH exit velocity since returning to the Oakland A’s lineup. He has been better on the road, where he owns a .278/.536/.869 slash line this season. Most importantly, Davis will be playing in the Texas Rangers hitter-friendly stadium, and the wind is blowing out to right at roughly 10 MPH. He gets a plus matchup against Lance Lynn, who is one of the more expensive pitchers on the slate, but I believe is playing at a level well above his skill set at the moment. Davis will be hitting fourth in Oakland’s lineup, and he makes a strong option for a low price tag.
Jason’s Reaction: As an added bonus, the weather in Texas tonight is great for hitters. The Oakland A’s may not have the best offense in the league, but rostering Davis as a one-off is a good look in tournaments.
Jason’s Pick: Mookie Betts/Andrew Benintendi
The Boston Red Sox’s outfielders are expensive, but worth it. Yonny Chirinos is taking the mound for the Tampa Bay Rays, and the game is set at 10 runs. Rick Porcello is a slight betting favorite at -130, giving the Red Sox an implied run total of 5.3. Mookie Betts has been struggling over his last 10 games, but the advanced metrics tell another story. He has a solid 0.042 ISO differential against right-handed pitching, and with 0.12 stolen bases per game, he has added fantasy upside due to his speed. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 237 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate over 50%, and a hard hit rate over 40%. Andrew Benintendi is even better. In the same time span, he has an average batted ball distance of 251 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate of 45%, and a hard hit rate of 40%. Betts will leadoff, and Benintendi will follow in the two-hole. It will not come cheap, but one of these two Red Sox, or both, could be in line for a huge fantasy outing.
Justin’s Reaction: I have no issues using any of the Boston outfielders tonight, especially with this game taking place in Boston.
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