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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Milwaukee Brewers
The Milwaukee Brewers are the “Chalk Stack” once again. They have seen a few ups and downs throughout the 2019 season, ranking 12th in the MLB in runs scored, third in home runs, 15th in team batting average, and ninth in OPS through 61 games. Milwaukee has been at their best at home this season, where they own a .259 average with a .470 slugging percentage and an .800 OPS through 32 games. They are also averaging 5.0 runs and 3.3 extra-base hits per game in those contests. The Brewers are currently -256 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.0 runs.
Milwaukee gets a great matchup against Rookie Davis tonight. He has struggled throughout his MLB career, recording a 1-3 record with a 7.96 ERA and a 1.99 WHIP through 11 games (6 starts). He also owns a 5.20 xFIP and a 5.08 SIERA in those games. Furthermore, Davis has allowed 35.2% fly ball and 24.3% HR/FB rates throughout his career. His opponents have recorded a 32.1% hard hit rate against him, while he has posted only a 14.7% soft hit rate. Davis also brings 18% strikeout and 9.4% swinging strike rates into this game. Davis has struggled against everyone throughout his career. He has allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .339 average with a .627 slugging percentage and a .448 wOBA. He has also allowed righties to hit for a .351/.622/.426 line. As if that isn’t enough, Davis has allowed a .383/.617/.443 line to his opponents on the road throughout his career. The Brewers feature one of the best offenses in the MLB when playing at home, and they make up the best stack on this slate tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Oakland A’s
The Oakland A’s have found quite a bit of offensive success through 63 games this season. They currently rank 13th in the MLB in runs scored, eighth in home runs, 19th in team batting average, and 15th in OPS. The A’s have been significantly better on the road this season, where they boast a .263 average with a .460 slugging percentage and a .795 OPS. They are also averaging 5.8 runs and 3.8 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Oakland is a +101 underdog in a game set at 10 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 5.0 runs tonight.
The A’s get a matchup against Lance Lynn, who has seen plenty of ups and downs this season. Through 12 starts, he owns a 7-4 record with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. He has also posted a 4.07 xFIP and a 4.11 SIERA this season. Lynn has allowed a 35.5% fly ball rate this season, while holding his opponents to only an 8% HR/FB rate. He has also allowed a 39.1% hard hit rate to go along with a 15.8% soft hit rate. Lynn’s strikeout rate has increased to 24.2% in 2019, and he brings a 10.3% swinging strike rate into this game. He has been at his worst against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .270 average to go along with a .440 slugging percentage and a .328 wOBA. Lefties have also hit for a .272/.381/.306 line against him this season. Furthermore, Lynn has allowed his opponents to post a .295/.402/.320 line against him in Texas. Oakland is an offense that improves drastically on the road, and they should find plenty of success in this matchup.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Washington Nationals
The Washington Nationals have dealt with a plethora of injuries this season, but they still rank 16th in the MLB in runs scored, 17th in home runs and OPS, and 18th in team batting average through 62 games. They have struggled at times on the road this season, where they own a .240 average with a .396 slugging percentage and a .710 OPS. They are also averaging 4.8 runs and 2.8 extra-base hits per game through 32 road games this season, as well. The Nationals are -107 favorites in a game set at 9 runs, and they own an implied run total of 4.6 runs tonight.
Nick Margevicius will be taking the mound for the San Diego Padres tonight. He has struggled with a 2-6 record to go along with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP through 10 starts this season. He has also struggled with a 5.03 xFIP and a 5.09 SIERA this season. He has held his opponents to a 33.8% fly ball rate, although he has allowed a 20.8% HR/FB rate this season. Margevicius has also allowed a 38.5% hard hit rate, while recording only a 16.8% soft hit rate in 2019. His strikeout rate sits at only 15.9% to go along with a 9.9% swinging strike rate. Left-handed batters have dominated him throughout the season, posting a .349 average with a .714 slugging percentage and a .451 wOBA. He has also allowed his opponents to post a .318/.600/.414 line in San Diego this season. The Nationals are finally getting healthy, and they come with elite upside in this matchup.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Brandon Woodruff
Woodruff has looked outstanding through 12 starts this season, posting a 7-1 record with a 3.82 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. He also brings a 3.62 xFIP and a 3.64 SIERA into this game. He has held his opponents to a 36.2% fly ball rate to go along with a 10.9% HR/FB rate. He also owns 38.3% hard hit and 20% soft hit rates in 2019. Woodruff’s strikeout rate has increased to 28.3% this season, whie he also brings an 11.8% swinging strike rate into this game. He is currently a -256 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 3.6 runs.
Woodruff gets a matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who don’t strikeout at a high rate, but also feature a below average team wOBA on this slate. Woodruff has been at his best against right-handed batters, holding them to a .213 average with a .284 slugging percentage and a .236 wOBA. He has been a consistent option throughout the season, and his price tag is one of the most surprising on the slate (besides Jacob deGrom). He has been throwing well enough to safely be considered in all leagues tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Khris Davis
Davis has been playing well recently, posting a .289 average with a .474 slugging percentage and an .815 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns three extra-base hits (two home runs) and five RBIs over that span, as well. Since returning to the Oakland A’s lineup, he has recorded 53% hard hit and 38% fly ball rates with a 97 MPH exit velocity. He has been better against left-handed pitching, but he still owns a career .355 wOBA, .519 slugging percentage, and .268 ISO against right-handed pitching.
He gets a great matchup against Lance Lynn, who has been outlined above. Davis is expected to hit fourth in Oakland’s lineup, and he enters this game with a combination of consistency and upside. Davis is cheap enough to be considered in all leagues on this slate.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
