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Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Charlie Morton
Charlie Morton has been throwing at an elite level this season, as he enters this game with a 6-0 record, 2.54 ERA, and 1.10 WHIP through 12 games. He also boasts a 3.42 xFIP and a 3.68 SIERA in those games. Most importantly, Morton enters this game with 30.4% strikeout and 12.6% swinging strike rates. He gets an elite matchup against the Detroit Tigers, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking fourth last on the slate in team wOBA. Morton is currently a -186 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, giving the Tigers an implied run total of only 3.8 runs. There are a plethora of elite pitchers on this slate, but Morton gets the best matchup, which is why I’m slightly siding with the most expensive option tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: I understand the recommendation, but I’d rather pivot toward James Paxton tonight at a very similar price point.
Jason’s Pick: Chris Sale
Chris Sale is one of the best pitchers in the league, both from a real-world and fantasy perspective. He is averaging 13.9 K/9, while only allowing 0.73 HR/9. The Kansas City Royals, a team that in previous seasons rarely walked away from the plate after swinging and missing, strikes out at a rate of 0.251 per at-bat. Sale has a strikeout prediction over 10, and Vegas has this game set at 8 total runs. The Boston Red Sox are -230 favorites, which gives the Royals a lowly implied run total of 3.2. The weather is great in Kansas City, but that is the only negative for Sale tonight. With a 64% strike rate, it is unlikely that Sale gets into too many challenging situations, and this game should be relatively smooth sailing for the Red Sox’s ace. He can be rostered in both cash games and tournaments, despite his higher price tag.
Justin’s Reaction: I have no problems with Sale in any leagues. He obviously isn’t my favorite high-priced pitcher tonight, but if you can’t get to Morton, Sale is a great option.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Jeff Mathis
Is my favorite infielder on this slate really a punt option at catcher? Absolutely. We have four pitchers over $10K that you can make a strong case for tonight, and it isn’t often that we are gifted a punt option like Jeff Mathis at catcher. Is Mathis good? Absolutely not. With that being said, he owns 38% hard hit and 46% fly ball rates with an 87 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He gets a plus matchup against John Means, who is due for regression, in one of the most hitter-friendly stadiums in the MLB. In 2018, Mathis boasted 0.048 wOBA and 0.027 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching. Essentially, he’s a way to get a piece of an offense that owns an implied run total of 5.1 runs at $2.2K. He’s one of the best ways on this slate to get that potential Morton/Sale pitching combination.
Jason’s Reaction: I love this recommendation. Players like Mathis are a must tonight with all the great pitching, and you nailed it.
Jason’s Pick: Matt Carpenter
Matt Carpenter has been undervalued on DraftKings since the beginning of the season. It made sense at first, as Carpenter was struggling to find his groove at the plate, but over his last 10 games, he is now hitting just under .350 with three home runs and seven RBIs. Averaging just under nine fantasy points per game over that same time span, there is no reason to avoid Carpenter right now, especially at his current price point. He has positive splits against right-handed pitching, entering tonight’s game with 0.024 ISO and 0.025 wOBA differentials. The weather looks great in St. Louis, as the temperature is expected to be over 80 degrees, and the wind is blowing out toward center field. In the last 15 days, Carpenter has an average batted ball distance of 253 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 98 MPH, a fly ball rate of 45%, and a hard hit rate of 50%. He can be rostered in all leagues without hesitation.
Justin’s Reaction: Carpenter has been on fire, and he’s an elite option in all leagues tonight.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Tyler Austin
I’m full of crazy recommendations today, aren’t I? Tyler Austin has only seen 15 at-bats over his last 10 games, but he owns a .267 average with an .867 slugging percentage and a 1.220 OPS in those games. Three of his four hits over that span were home runs. He also boasts 44% hard hit and 66% fly ball rates with a 98 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He gets an elite matchup against Jason Vargas, who has struggled with fly balls through nine games (eight starts). Austin also enters this game with 0.101 wOBA and 0.13 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching. He’s expected to hit second in the San Francisco Giants’ offense, and he’s a strong tournament option on this slate. It’s an added bonus that he has 1B eligibility, as well.
Jason’s Reaction: As a San Francisco Giants’ fan, I can’t say no to this recommendation. Austin is a bright spot in a rather dark season. Nice work.
Jason’s Pick: Derek Fisher
Derek Fisher is a great, high-upside option tonight on DraftKings for a relatively low price tag. The Houston Astros are expected to score over five runs tonight, and Fisher is leading off. He has 0.034 HR/AB and 0.029 SB/G, showing off his upside in various categories. That is backed up by his last 10 games, where he has a batting average over .280, a home run, five RBIs, four walks, and two stolen bases. He is getting it done, from a fantasy perspective, in various ways. If that isn’t enough, with right-handed Mike Leake on the mound for the Seattle Mariners, Fisher gains a 0.113 ISO differential. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 227 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 92 MPH, a fly ball rate over 40%, and a hard hit rate just under 40%. The weather in Seattle is rather poor, so roster Fisher in tournaments only.
Justin’s Reaction: This is a great recommendation tonight. As long as Fisher is leading off, he can be used tonight.
Be sure to follow Justin (@BalesSJustin) and Jason (@BalesTJason) on Twitter!
