What’s up, Karma Nation!? I have some great news for you! If you’re thinking about joining the Karma Nation, use Promo Code “STRIKEOUT” to get 10% of ANY package for the lifetime of that subscription! Click here for our packages.
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Milwaukee Brewers
The Milwaukee Brewers have seen a few ups and downs throughout the 2019 season, ranking 11th in the MLB in runs scored, third in home runs, 17th in team batting average, and ninth in OPS through 61 games. Milwaukee has been at their best at home this season, where they own a .258 average with a .549 slugging percentage and an .800 OPS through 30 games. They are also averaging 5.1 runs and 3.4 extra-base hits per game in those contests. The Brewers are currently -249 favorites in a game set at 9 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.6 runs.
Milwaukee gets a matchup against Sandy Alcantara tonight. He has struggled through 11 starts this season, recording a 2-5 record with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. He has also posted a 5.32 xFIP and a 5.67 SIERA this season. Alcantara has held his opponents to 32.3% fly ball and 9.7% HR/FB rates this season, though. He has also held his to a 29.3% hard hit rate, while recording a 23.2% soft hit rate in 2019. With that being said, Alcantara’s strikeout rate sits at only 15%, while he also brings an 11.6% swinging strike rate into this game. He has been a reverse splits pitcher throughout his career, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .244 average with a .402 slugging percentage and a .324 wOBA. He has also struggled on the road, where he has allowed his opponents to hit for a .246/.444/.350 line. Milwaukee is an offense that feature elite potential at home, and Alcantara’s road woes could continue in this game. The only major concern with the Brewers in cash games is that there are multiple elite high-priced pitchers on this slate, and Milwaukee is an expensive stack.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers continue own one of the best offenses in the MLB in 2019. They currently rank third in the league in runs scored, 12th in home runs, 19th in team batting average, and fifth in OPS through 57 games. The Rangers have surprisingly been a better offense on the road this season, but they are still hitting for a .253 average with a .467 slugging percentage and a .799 OPS at home. They are also averaging 5.8 runs and 3.6 extra-base hits per game through 29 games in Texas this season. Texas is a -168 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 5.2 runs on this slate.
The Rangers get a matchup against John Means, who has thrown well with a 5-4 record, 2.80 ERA, and 1.10 WHIP through 13 games (9 starts). With that being said, he’s due for regression, as he owns a 4.94 xFIP and a 4.55 SIERA in those games. Means has also allowed a ridiculous 43.6% fly ball rate, although he has held his opponents to a 10.3% HR/FB rate. He has limited his opponents to a 30.2% hard hit rate this season, although his soft hit rate sits at only 14.5%. He also brings 20.1% strikeout and 10.9% swinging strike rates into this game. Means has been worse against right-handed batters throughout his career, allowing them to hit for a .241 average with a .428 slugging percentage and a .308 wOBA. Furthermore, he has allowed his opponents to post a .289/.553/.379 average against him when throwing on the road. This is an elite spot for Texas, and I expect that regression to catch up with Means tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
St. Louis Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals have struggled at times offensively this season, ranking 17th in the MLB in runs scored and OPS, 20th in home runs, and 16th in team batting average through 59 games. They have been better at home this season, as well, as they own a .251 average with a .396 slugging percentage and a .731 OPS through 32 games in St. Louis. The Cardinals are also averaging 4.9 runs and 2.6 extra-base hits per game in those contests. They are -133 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs tonight, and they own an implied run total of 5.1 runs tonight.
Anthony DeSclafani will be taking the mound for the Cincinnati Reds tonight. He has struggled with a 2-3 record to go along with a 4.97 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP through 11 games. He has also struggled with a 4.67 xFIP and a 4.36 SIERA this season. DeSclafani has allowed 44.2% fly ball and 20.3% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 40.6% hard hit rate this season, while recording only a 15% soft hit rate. DeSclafani’s strikeout rate is up to 23.4% this season, while his swinging strike rate sits at 11.1%. He was at his worst in 2018 against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .288 average with a .575 slugging percentage and a .385 wOBA last season. That has been the case in 2019, as well, as lefties boast a .321/.670/.432 line against him this season. St. Louis doesn’t feature a ton of left-handed batters, but getting a stack of the few they have with sprinkles of other players makes sense on this larger slate.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Yu Darvish
Darvish has struggled quite a bit this season, as he enters this game with a 2-3 record, 5.02 ERA, and 1.56 WHIP. He also owns a 4.36 xFIP and a 4.82 SIERA through 12 starts. Darvish has held his opponents to a 28.8% fly ball rate, but he has allowed a 25% HR/FB rate. He has also allowed a 32.1% hard hit rate this season, while recording a 19.9% soft hit rate. Most importantly, Darvish enters this game with a 26.6% strikeout rate to go along with a 12.6% swinging strike rate. He’s a -113 favorite in a game set at only 7.5 runs, and his opponents feature an implied run total of only 3.7 runs tonight.
Darvish gets a matchup against the Colorado Rockies, who don’t strikeout at a high rate and feature one of the highest team wOBA on the slate. With that being said, they have struggled away from Colorado this season, and the wind is blowing in at nearly 10 MPH tonight. Darvish has been at his best against right-handed batters, holding them to a .213 average with a .377 slugging percentage and a .325 wOBA. He is far from a dominant pitcher, but it isn’t often you get someone with his strikeout potential for this low of a price tag. Darvish is in an elite spot on this slate, and he makes a strong salary relief option at pitcher tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Kyle Schwarber
Schwarber is only hitting .175 over his last 10 games, but he also owns a .400 slugging percentage and a .661 OPS in those games. He possesses three home runs and five RBIs over that span, as well. Furthermore, he has posted 45% hard hit and 48% fly ball rates to go along with a 96 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Schwarber has been at his best against right-handed pitching, as well, bringing 0.021 wOBA and 0.059 ISO differentials against righties into this game.
He gets a tough matchup against German Marquez tonight. Marquez has posted a 6-2 record with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP through 13 starts. Those numbers are also backed up by a 3.35 xFIP and a 3.64 SIERA. He boasts 26.7% fly ball and 14.1% HR/FB rates in 2019, as well. Marquez has allowed a 37.7% hard hit rate this season, while recording only a 13.8% soft hit rate, though. Schwarber is expected to lead off for the Chicago Cubs, and he makes a high upside option, even in a tough matchup tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
