What’s up, Karma Nation!? I have some great news for you! If you’re thinking about joining the Karma Nation, use Promo Code “STRIKEOUT” to get 10% of ANY package for the lifetime of that subscription! Click here for our packages.
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs have featured an above average offense this season. Through 58 games, they rank 11th in the MLB in runs scored, sixth in home runs, 13th in team batting average, and fourth in OPS. Chicago has been better on the road this season, but they are still hitting for a .247 average with a .436 slugging percentage and a .781 OPS through 29 home games. They are also averaging a healthy 4.7 runs and 3.2 extra-base hits per game at home this season. Tonight, they Cubs are -225 favorites in a game set at 10.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.4 runs.
Chicago gets a great matchup against Jeff Hoffman, who has struggled through three starts this season. He enters this game with a 1-1 record to go along with a 7.20 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP. He has also posted a 4.11 xFIP and a 4.23 SIERA this season. Hoffman has allowed his opponents to record 37% fly ball and 17.6% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has held his opponents to a 31.3% hard hit rate this season, although he only owns a 12.5% soft hit rate. Hoffman’s strikeout rate is up to 22.4% this season, while he enters this game with a 9.7% swinging strike rate. He has been a reverse splits pitcher throughout his career, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .313 average with a .554 slugging percentage and a .396 wOBA. He has also allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .267/.456/.335 line throughout his career. The wind is blowing out at over 10 MPH at Wrigley, and that’s one of the key reasons the total is set at 10.5 runs. The Cubs will likely feature the most ownership, but there are multiple stacks that could feature chalk because of the size of this slate.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers own one of the best offenses in the MLB in 2019. They currently rank third in the league in runs scored, 12th in home runs, 11th in team batting average, and fifth in OPS through 57 games. The Rangers have surprisingly been a better offense on the road this season, but they are still hitting for a .253 average with a .467 slugging percentage and a .799 OPS at home. They are also averaging 5.8 runs and 3.6 extra-base bits per game through 29 games in Texas this season. Texas is a -129 favorite in a game set at 10.5 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 5.6 runs on this slate.
The Rangers get a great matchup against Dylan Bundy, who enters this game with a 2-6 record, 4.58 ERA, and 1.24 WHIP through 11 starts. He brings a 4.75 xFIP and a 4.36 SIERA into this game, as well. Bundy has also struggled with 44% fly ball and 17.8% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has held his opponents to a 25.9% hard hit rate this season, but he also only owns a 16.9% soft hit rate. Bundy brings a 23.9% strikeout rate and a 13.3% swinging strike rate into this game, as well. He was at his worst against left-handed batters in 2018, allowing them to hit for a .319 average with a .553 slugging percentage and a .399 wOBA. He also allowed righties to hit for a .230/.493/.325 line in 2018. The Rangers feature a high upside offense at home, and there’s very little reason to believe that Bundy will be able to slow them down in this game.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Cincinnati Reds
The Cincinnati Reds have struggled through 59 games this season, ranking 20th in the MLB in runs scored, 13th in home runs, 24th in team batting average, and 22nd in OPS. They have also struggled on the road, where they own a .222 average with a .371 slugging percentage and a .654 OPS. They are averaging only 3.9 runs and 2.6 extra-base hits per game through 29 games away from home this season. Tonight, they are -112 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs, and they own an implied run total of 4.4 runs.
Genesis Cabrera will be taking the mound for the St. Louis Cardinals. He allowed five runs (three earned runs) and one home run over only 3.2 innings. He posted a 7.36 ERA and a 1.91 WHIP in that game. Through a larger sample size in the Triple-A this season, Cabrera has struggled with a 6.32 xFIP. He has also allowed 49.6% fly ball and 18.3% HR/FB rates in those games. Cabrera allowed a 45.5% hard hit rate in his only game in the majors, and that could continue in this game. In the Triple-A, his strikeout rate sat at only 21.4% this season. Cabrera is a left-handed pitcher, but there’s very little reason to believe he’ll be able to slow down any offenses at the Major League level. I’m simply attacking a pitcher that doesn’t have the “stuff” to be throwing in the MLB. Even with a below average offense on the road, Cincinnati should find plenty of success in this matchup.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Chase Anderson
Anderson has posted outstanding numbers through 10 games (5 starts) this season. He currently owns a 3-0 record with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. With that being said, he has also posted a 4.60 xFIP and a 4.41 SIERA, suggesting he could see regression at some point this season. Anderson has allowed a 39.8% fly ball rate this season, although he has held his opponents to a 10.8% HR/FB rate. Furthermore, he has held his opponents to a 37.6% hard hit rate, while recording a 20.4% soft hit rate in 2019. Anderson also brings 23.9% strikeout and 11% swinging strike rates into this game. He’s a -187 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 3.8 runs.
Anderson gets a plus matchup against the Miami Marlins, who rank as an above average team in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking in the bottom-six of the slate in team wOBA. In 2018, Anderson was at his best against left-handed batters, holding them to a .217 average with a .376 slugging percentage and a .299 wOBA. The Marlins aren’t a dangerous offense, and Anderson’s success at home this season should be enough reason to consider him. With plenty of elite arms on this slate, Anderson makes a strong SP2 option.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Curt Casali
Casali has caught fire recently, as he’s hitting .292 with a .625 slugging percentage and a .982 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns four extra-base hits (two home runs) and eight RBIs. Casali also owns 46% hard hit and fly ball rates to go along with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He brings 0.032 wOBA and 0.004 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching throughout his career, as well.
Casali gets an elite matchup against Genesis Cabrera, who has been outlined above. He’s expected to hit sixth in the Cincinnati Reds offense, and he comes with an extremely low price tag. He’s an elite salary relief option at a position that I generally like to punt on larger slates.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
