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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Washington Nationals
The Washington Nationals have seen a few ups and downs this season, ranking 14th in the MLB in runs scored, team batting average, and OPS, while also ranking 16th in home runs through 81 games. Washington has been better at home this season, but they still own a .245 average with a .415 slugging percentage and a .732 OPS through 41 road games. They are also averaging 5.1 runs and 3.0 extra-base hits per game on the road this season. They are currently -192 favorites in a game set at 11 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.5 runs.
Washington gets a matchup against Gregory Soto, who has been recalled for the Detroit Tigers. Through four starts this season, he owns an 0-2 record with a 9.22 ERA and a 2.12 WHIP. He has also posted a 6.00 xFIP and a 5.89 SIERA in those games. Soto struggled with 37.1% fly ball and 17.4% HR/FB rates in 2019, as well. Furthermore, he has allowed his opponents to hit for a 39.7% hard hit rate, while recording a 19% soft hit rate. Soto brings 15.9% strikeout and 8.5% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. He has been at his worst against right-handed batters in 2019, allowing them to hit for a .350 average with a .667 slugging percentage and a .440 wOBA. Surprisingly, Soto has held his opponents to a .237/.368/.321 line at home this season, but his 6.12 xFIP through 10 home innings suggests he’s in line for major regression in Detroit. The Nationals have an offense that features a multitude of elite right-handed batters, and there’s very little reason to believe Soto will find success against them. They are the safest stacking option on the slate today.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins have featured an elite offense this season, leading the MLB in home runs, team batting average, and OPS, while also ranking second in the league in runs scored. The Twins have been at their best on the road, where they own a .283 average with a .528 slugging percentage and a .870 OPS. They are averaging 6.3 runs and 4.4 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. Today, they are -145 favorites in a game set at 10.5 runs. They feature an implied run total of 5.8 runs.
The Twins get a plus matchup against Ivan Nova, who has struggled through 16 starts this season. In those starts, he owns a 3-6 record with a 5.91 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP. He has also posted a 4.73 xFIP and a 5.01 SIERA in those games. Nova has held his opponents to a 29.3% fly ball rate in 2019, but he has also allowed a 19.5% HR/FB rate. Nova has also given up a 35.8% hard hit rate this season to go along with a 17.9% soft hit rate. He has struggled with 14.9% strikeout and 8.3% swinging strike rates in 2019, as well. Nova has allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .328 average with a .557 slugging percentage and a .385 wOBA this season. He has also allowed righties to hit for a .320/.503/.370 line, though. Furthermore, Nova has been worse in Chicago, where he has allowed his opponents to post a .350/.608/.416 line through 28.2 innings. The Twins feature arguably the best offense in the MLB, and Nova isn’t the type of pitcher that is going to slow down their success.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Cincinnati Reds
The Cincinnati Reds offense has struggled quite a bit in 2019, as they rank only 26th in the MLB in runs scored, 18th in home runs, 27th in team batting average, and 23rd in OPS through 79 games. They have found more success at home, though, where they boast a .250 average with a .450 slugging percentage and a .779 OPS. The Reds are also averaging 4.8 runs and 3.2 extra-base hits through 37 games in Cincinnati this season. They are -126 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs today, and they own an implied run total of 5.1 runs on this slate.
Jose Quintana will be taking the mound for the Chicago Cubs today. He has seen plenty of ups and downs this season, posting a 4-7 record with a 4.50 ERa and a 1.40 WHIP through 16 games (15 starts). He also owns a 4.39 xFIP and a 4.65 SIERA in those games. Quintana has recorded 31.7% fly ball and 14% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 38.4% hard hit rate, while recording a 16.3% soft hit rate this season. His strikeout rate also sits at only 19.5% to go along with a 9.2% swinging strike rate. Quintana has been worse against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .271 average with a .457 slugging percentage and a .333 wOBA. He has also given up a .276/.391/.300 line to left-handed batters. Quintana will be throwing in a hitter friendly stadium today, and he has allowed his opponents to post a .288/.500/.359 line on the road this season. The Reds offense is finally starting to get healthy, and they come with quite a bit of upside in this matchup.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Steven Matz
We all know about how good of a play Brendan McKay is, so I’m skipping over him for Matz in this section. The latter enters this game with a 5-6 record, 4.85 ERA, and 1.46 WHIP. The most important aspect of this game is where it’s being played. Matz owns a 3.58 xFIP in New York. His strikeout rate also increases to 28.1% at home. Furthermore, he owns a 33.3% fly ball rate with a 10.7% HR/FB rate in those games. His hard hit rate also drops to 37.4% to go along with an 18.7% soft hit rate. Matz is a small underdog in a game set at 10 runs today, though.
He gets a matchup against the Atlanta Braves, who rank as a below average team on this slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They also rank second last in team wOBA. Matz has been at his best against right-handed batters this season, holding them to a .255 average with a .486 slugging percentage and a .334 wOBA. He has also held his opponents to a .228/.362/.286 line in New York. While there is some risk involved with Matz, he’s a strong option at home today.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Jason Castro
Castro has been ice cold recently, posting a .091 average with a .182 slugging percentage and a .325 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns one home run and two RBIs in those games, as well. With that being said, Castro’s advanced metrics suggest he could breakout soon, as he owns 50% hard hit and 61% fly ball rates with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also boasts 0.107 wOBA and 0.265 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Tellez gets a plus matchup against Ivan Nova, who has been outlined above. He’s hitting eighth in the Minnesota Twins lineup. While that isn’t an elite spot, they should find collective success, allowing Castro to see extra RBI and run opportunities. He’s a strong option at catcher in all leagues.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
