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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers feature one of the highest upside offenses in the MLB. They currently rank eighth in the league in runs scored, fourth in home runs and team batting average, and second in OPS. Los Angeles has been at their best at home, but they have posted a .249 average with a .437 slugging percentage and a .771 OPS through 40 road games. They are also averaging 4.9 runs and 3.5 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Tonight, the Dodgers are -195 favorites in a game set at 12.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 7.4 runs.
Los Angeles gets a matchup against Antonio Senzatela, who has seen mixed results through 14 starts. In those games, he owns a 6-5 record with a 4.91 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP. He has also posted a 5.01 xFIP and a 5.51 SIERA in those starts. Senzatela has held his opponents to a 24.6% fly ball rate, although he has allowed a 17.5% HR/FB rate, as well. He has also given up a 38.2% hard hit rate, while recording an 18.3% soft hit rate in 2019. Senzatela’s strikeout rate sits at only 13.1% to go along with a 6.6% swinging strike rate. He has been significantly worse against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .336 average with a .531 slugging percentage and a .402 wOBA. He has also allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .242/.391/.295 line this season. Furthermore, Senzatela has given up a .299/.470/.347 line to his opponents at home in 2019. The Dodgers own an offense that features elite power, and that power will be enhanced in Colorado tonight. They are far and away the best stacking option in cash games tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Milwaukee Brewers
The Milwaukee Brewers have seen plenty of ups and downs this season, ranking 15th in the MLB in runs scored, third in home runs, 17th in team batting average, and 11th in OPS through 81 games. The Brewers have been significantly better at home this season, where they own a .260 average with a .471 slugging percentage and a .808 OPS. They are averaging 5.0 runs and 3.4 extra-base hits in those 42 home games, as well. Milwaukee is a -155 favorite in a game set at 10.5 runs tonight, and they feature an implied run total of 5.9 runs.
The Brewers get a matchup against Chris Archer, who has posted a 3-6 record with a 5.56 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP through 13 starts. He has recorded a 4.78 xFIP and a 4.82 SIERA in those games, as well. Archer has struggled with his opponents power in 2019, giving up 40% fly ball and 23.7% HR/FB rates. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 44.4% hard hit rate with a 17.7% soft hit rate this season. Archer boasts 24% strikeout and 12.1% swinging strike rates, as well. He has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .271 average with a .512 slugging percentage and a .349 wOBA this season. He has allowed lefties to hit for a .232/.512/.349 line in 2019, as well. Furthermore, Archer has allowed a .290/.610/.404 line through 25.2 road innings. His inability to contain his opponents power will play a major factor in this game, as Milwaukee features one of the most powerful offenses on the MLB and will be playing in one of the more hitter friendly stadiums in the league tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays have struggled offensively in 2019, as they rank only 25th in the MLB in runs scored, 18th in home runs, 29th in team batting average, and 27th in OPS through 81 games. Surprisingly, they have struggled more at home, where they have recorded a .209 average with a .388 slugging percentage and a .659 OPS. The Blue Jays are averaging 3.8 runs and 2.9 extra-base hits per game in those contests. They are currently -119 favorites in a game set at 10 runs, and they own an implied run total of 5.2 runs tonight.
Danny Duffy will be taking the mound for the Kansas City Royals tonight. He has recorded a 3-3 record with a 4.48 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP through 11 starts. He has struggled a bit more than that, though, as he owns a 5.21 xFIP and a 5.07 SIERA, as well. Duffy has allowed a 40.4% fly ball rate, while holding his opponents to an 11.8% HR/FB rate. He has given up a 35.4% hard hit rate to go along with a 15.9% soft hit rate in 2019, as well. Duffy’s strikeout rate sits at only 18.9%, while he also owns a 9.8% swinging strike rate. He has been worse against left-handed batters, allowing lefties to hit for a .290 average with a .468 slugging percentage and a .377 wOBA. He has also allowed a .244/..432/.308 line to right-handed batters in 2019. Duffy has been significantly worse on the road, as well, where his opponents own a .273/.432/.346 line this season. He’ll be moving to a hitter friendly stadium tonight, and Toronto is a stack that quietly comes with tremendous upside.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Vince Velasquez
Velasquez has been far from a consistent option this season. Through 18 games (8 starts), he owns a 2-4 record with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. He has also posted a 4.84 xFIP and a 4.34 SIERA in those games. He has struggled a bit with 48.4% fly ball and 18.3% HR/FB rates this season. Velasquez has also given up a 45.2% hard hit rate to go along with a 16.7% soft hit rate in 2019. He owns 26.6% strikeout and 10.9% swinging strike rates, as well. Tonight, he’s a -139 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 3.7 runs.
Velasquez gets a plus matchup against the Miami Marlins, who rank fifth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking second last in team wOBA. Velasquez has been at his best against right-handed batters, holding them to a .227 average with a .482 slugging percentage and a .335 wOBA. He has been significantly worse on the road, but he’ll be throwing in one of the most pitcher friendly stadiums in the MLB. Velasquez is a player that can be considered in all leagues tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Rowdy Tellez
Tellez has been heating up recently, posting a .290 average with a .645 slugging percentage and a 1.024 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns five extra-base hits (three home runs) and seven RBIs in those games. Tellez has also posted 41% hard hit and 47% fly ball rates to go along with a 92 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has been better against right-handed pitching, but he still has flashed power against lefties this season.
Tellez gets a plus matchup against Danny Duffy, who has been outlined above. He’s expected to hit fifth in the Toronto Blue Jays lineup tonight. He’ll likely see low ownership on a large slate, and he makes an outstanding tournament option for a low price tag.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
