Pitchers
Matt Boyd- I don’t plan on having much exposure to Patrick Corbin against the Marlins, who I expect to be popular, given the amount of righties he will see mixed with the Marlins lack of strikeouts against lefties, and instead I plan on being overweight on Boyd against the Rangers. Boyd actually has better marks across the board this season with a 3.35 SIERA, 30% strikeouts and 5% walks, and the matchup for strikeouts is better as well as the Texas Rangers come into tonight striking out almost 28% of the time against lefties — first in the MLB. I’m hoping that Corbin comes in higher-owned tonight, but regardless of ownership I think Boyd is clearly the best play on this slate and I’m comfortable with him anchoring my teams in all formats.
Zac Gallen- I don’t normally go out of my way to pick on the Washington Nationals, but I think that Zac Gallen is still mis-priced at $7,100 on DraftKings and $7,800 on FanDuel, and I’m willing to make an exception in his case. For starters. he will be pitching at home in Miami, one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in baseball. He also is someone that we can expect upside from, he struck out 33% of Triple A batters this season before his call-up, and looked every bit legitimate in this first MLB, backed by 10% swinging strikes. Overall, I think he has higher-upside than guys priced around him given their matchups, and I would be comfortable with him as an SP2 in all formats on Wednesday night.
Framber Valdez- If you don’t want to stomach Gallen in cash games, Framber Valdez comes in a few hundred dollars cheaper, in a good matchup with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Some might have a bad taste in their mouth when it comes to the Pirates based off last night, but they have been much worse against left-handed pitching this season. They feature the third-worst wRC+ in the split this season (75) with 24% strikeouts compared to a 98 wRC+ and 20% strikeouts to right-handed pitching. Valdez has flashed upside against beatable opponents like the Blue Jays and Orioles already this season, and while I think that Gallen is a bit safer, Valdez is equally viable in all formats at his price.
Tournament Pool: Add Nick Pivetta
Building Blocks
Nick Castellanos- Casty has been his usual self in 2019, hunting down and punishing left-handed pitching to the tune of a .227 ISO with 51% hard hits and 41% fly balls. After a few week stretch of being mid-$4K on DraftKings, he is back to $3,700 just in time for a date with Mike Minor. Minor has been the Rangers ace this season by far, but he is still due for regression seeing as he has a 2.52 ERA compared to a SIERA. Furthermore, Minor loses a lot of his ground balls against right-handed batters, with the number falling over 8%, and the hard-contact rising 10%. Casty is a staple in cash game builds for me at his price, and is also my homerun prediction for this slate.
Scott Kingery- Kingery, and his Phillies teammates, are set-up to be massive chalk on this 9 game slate as they match up with another pitcher due for regression, Jason Vargas. I hate playing chalk in MLB, but for cash games on this slate I will be drinking the Phillies Kool-Aid, starting with Kingery who is in the lead-off spot once again. Kingery was an extremely hyped prospect coming into last season, so much so that the Phillies gave him a contract before he played a game for them, but things didn’t pan out (like they do a lot of the time) and the hype had died down on him coming into this season. He has responded to that by batting .331 with a 153 wRC+ and a .200+ ISO to both sides through three months this season. He shouldn’t be hard to fit in either, seeing as he can be used at both third and outfield thanks to DraftKings’s multi-positional eligibility.
Kris Bryant- We close by building blocks with Kris Bryant, someone that was featured in this column last night as well. I’ve highlighted on many occasions that Bryant has crushed lefties during his short time in the majors, and he gets another southpaw tonight in Dallas Keuchel, who is most likely still rusty after not signing with the Braves until June. Not only does Bryant crush lefties, he crushes sinkers, a pitch that Keuchel throws over 50% of the time to right-handed (and left-handed) batters.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
