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Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Adrian Houser
Adrian Houser is a risky option, but I’m willing to take a shot on him for his price at this point. He has been a dominant pitching option through 16 games (2 starts) this season, posting a 2-1 record with a 2.27 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. His numbers are also backed by a 3.12 xFIP and 3.32 SIERA. He has held his opponents to a 21.1% fly ball rate, while allowing an 18.8% HR/FB rate. He has also held his opponents to a 35.1% hard hit rate to go along with an 18.2% soft hit rate. Houser enters this game with dominant 28.6% strikeout and 10.9% swinging strike rates in those innings, as well. Furthermore, he has allowed only 3 earned runs with 33 strikeouts over his last 27.2 innings. Houser doesn’t generally pitch deep into games, but he’s expected to stick in the rotation as a starter for now, so he could be forced into extended innings if he’s throwing well tonight. Regardless, he may only need a few innings to hit value at his current price tag, and he will open up plenty of salary for your bats on this slate.
Jason’s Reaction: I love this recommendation. Houser has an elite strikeout prediction tonight for his price tag. He provides a ton of value at a position that tends to be hard to find great value.
Jason’s Pick: Framber Valdez
Framber Valdez also makes for an interesting value option at the pitcher position, and based on the Vegas predictions for tonight’s games, he is actually a rather comfortable cash game play. The Houston Astros and Pittsburgh Pirates are expected to 9.5 total runs, but the Astros are -220 betting favorites, giving the Pirates an implied run total of only 3.8 runs, the second lowest on the slate. Valdez has a decent 8.3 K/9 rate, and over his last four games, he has over 15 fantasy points in three of them. His 2.55 ERA at home this season is very encouraging, compared to his less-than-ideal 5.09 road ERA. The game is in Houston tonight, and Valdez has accumulated 21 strikeouts in his last 20.1 innings pitched. His upside for his current price tag is clear, making him a great tournament option, and without too many safe options for cash games tonight, he can also be rostered in those formats.
Justin’s Reaction: I never thought we’d be recommending Adrian Houser and Framber Valdez on a slate, but I’m all in on paying down for pitchers at this point. Feel free to use Valdez in this matchup.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Scott Kingery
Since I’m spending down at pitcher, I can easily spend up on my hitters in this article. Scott Kingery is hitting .385 with a .641 slugging percentage and a 1.070 OPS over his last 10 games. He has posted six extra-base hits (two home runs), five RBIs, and two stolen bases in those games. He also boasts 48% hard hit and 45% fly ball rates with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Kingery gets an elite matchup against Jason Vargas tonight, and he enters this game with 0.04 wOBA and 0.022 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching. He has recently moved to the lead off spot for the Philadelphia Phillies, and I expect them to feature one of the best offenses on the slate against Vargas. That starts will Kingery, who is third base and outfield eligible as a bonus on DraftKings. He isn’t going to come cheap, but he’s a safe option, who also comes with elite upside.
Jason’s Reaction: There is going to be a lot of scoring tonight, so spending up on batters is the right move. There is no denying Kingery’s production over the last few weeks. He can be rostered in all formats.
Jason’s Pick: Rhys Hoskins
A theme is starting to develop here. As Justin previously mentioned, the Philadelphia Phillies are going to be one of the most explosive offenses on tonight’s MLB slate, so rostering their best bats is a great move. Scott Kingery is obviously worth consideration, and a little further down in the article, Justin will recommend Bryce Harper. Rhys Hoskins is also a great option. He is hitting 0.063 HR/AB, and his advanced metrics over the last 15 days have been incredible. He has an average batted ball distance of 254 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate of 66%, and a hard hit rate over 45%. With both Adrian Houser and Framber Valdez providing value at the pitcher position, it shouldn’t be too difficult to stack the Phillies, even with their high price tags. Hoskins is on home run alert tonight!
Justin’s Reaction: Keeping the Phillies going, eh? I like it a lot. They’re likely my favorite stack on this slate, and Hoskins is a great way to get a piece of the offense.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Bryce Harper
Bryce Harper is finally starting to heat up, as he has posted a .257 average with a .486 slugging percentage and a .908 OPS over his last 10 games. He has recorded four extra-base hits (two home runs), eight RBIs, and one stolen base in those contests. He also brings 41% hard hit and 37% fly ball rates with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days into this game. Harper has been a better option at home this season, and he gets a plus matchup against Jason Vargas tonight. Surprisingly, he brings 0.008 wOBA and 0.05 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game. He’s hitting third in the Philadelphia Phillies’ lineup, which is expected to be one of the most successful offenses on this slate. Harper has been playing well enough to be used in all leagues, and he makes a great pairing with Kingery on this slate.
Jason’s Reaction: I’m wondering if you actually like Kingery and Harper, or if you just really dislike Vargas. Either way, good recommendation.
Jason’s Pick: Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber really started to cool off over his last 10 games, hitting under .230 with only 1 home run and 3 RBIs. However, his advanced metrics are still very solid, and his price tag is still too low on DraftKings. Dallas Keuchel is not one of the most effective pitchers to target on tonight’s MLB slate, but the Chicago Cubs are expected to score five runs, and Schwarber should leadoff. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 223 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 92 MPH, a fly ball rate of 44%, and a hard hit rate the same as his fly ball rate. Not much value is needed after the two value pitcher recommendations, but Schwarber provides it anyway. His lower price tag will make that Philadelphia Phillies’ stack a very easy thing to accomplish.
Justin’s Reaction: Schwarber has certainly cooled off, but I still like him tonight. Great recommendation.
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