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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Philadelphia Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies have seen mixed results this season, ranking 17th in the MLB in runs scored, 21st in home runs, 22nd in team batting average, and 18th in OPS through 79 games. Philadelphia has featured a better offense at home, where they own a .248 average with a .446 slugging percentage and a .781 OPS. They are also averaging 5.2 runs and 3.4 extra-base hits per game in those contests. The Philadelphia Phillies are currently -150 favorites in a game set at 10.5 runs, giving them an implied run total of 5.9 runs on this slate.
Philadelphia gets an elite matchup against Jason Vargas tonight. He has thrown well through 13 games (12 starts) this season, posting a 3-3 record with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. With that being said, he’s due for regression, as he also owns a 5.30 xFIP and a 5.27 SIERA. Vargas has held his opponents to a 9.7% HR/FB rate, although he has allowed a 40.2% fly ball rate in 2019. He has also given up a 39.1% hard hit rate to his opponents, while recording only a 17.4% soft hit rate. Vargas’ strikeout rate also sits at 18.2% to go along with a 7.6% swinging strike rate this season. He has been at his worst against right-handed batters in 2019, allowing them to hit for a .244 average with a .405 slugging percentage and a .314 wOBA. He has also allowed his opponents to hit for a .286/.447/.335 line on the road this season. The Phillies have quietly found success at home this season, and they could be in line for more tonight, as Vargas will likely see his regression sooner rather than later.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Milwaukee Brewers
The Milwaukee Brewers have featured a slightly above average offense in 2019, ranking 14th in the MLB in runs scored, third in home runs, 17th in team batting average, and 11th in OPS. The Brewers have found significantly more success at home, posting a .262 average with a .475 slugging percentage and a .814 OPS through 40 home games. They are averaging 5.1 runs and 3.5 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. Milwaukee is currently a -200 favorite in a game set at 10 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 6.0 runs tonight.
The Brewers get a matchup against Wade LeBlanc, who is expected to play the role of the long reliever tonight. He has struggled through 10 games (6 starts) this season, posting a 4-2 record with a 5.44 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. His struggles are also backed with a 5.03 xFIP and a 4.63 SIERA. LeBlanc has allowed 41% fly ball and 14.1% HR/FB rates this season, as well. He has given up a 36.2% hard hit rate, while struggling with a 10.9% soft hit rate in 2019. LeBlanc has also struggled with 18% strikeout and 8.4% swinging strike rates. He has struggled against everyone throughout the 2019 season. He has allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .286 average with a .510 slugging percentage and a .343 wOBA, while righties have posted a .285/.503/.345 line against him this season. LeBlanc has also given up a .306/.541/.358 line to his opponents on the road in 2019. Between LeBlanc’s road woes and Milwaukee’s success at home, they make an elite stacking option on this slate, as I’m also not worried about Austin Adams as an opener tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Los Angeles Angels
The Los Angeles Angels have flown under the radar a bit this season, but they rank 11th in the MLB in runs scored, 12th in home runs and OPS, and ninth in team batting average through 80 games. They have seen more fantasy success at home, where they have recorded a .257 average with a .458 slugging percentage and a .797 OPS. The Angels are averaging 5.1 runs and 3.3 extra-base hits per game at home this season. Los Angeles is a -112 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs tonight, and they own an implied run total of 4.9 runs.
Tanner Roark will be taking the mound for the Cincinnati Reds tonight. He has quietly thrown well this season, recording a 5-6 record with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP through 15 starts. He has struggled a bit more than that, though, as he owns a 4.39 xFIP and a 4.38 SIERA this season. Roark has allowed a 35.2% fly ball rate in 2019, while holding his opponents to a 7.4% HR/FB rate. He has given up a 37.1% hard hit rate to go along with a 15.5% soft hit rate this season, as well. Roark also enters this game with 23.3% strikeout and 9.1% swinging strike rates. He has struggled significantly against left-handed batters this season, allowing them to hit for a .293 average with a .479 slugging percentage and a .374 wOBA. He has allowed a .246/.373/.312 line on the road this season. Roark is due for significant road regression, as well, and Los Angeles features an offense that is somewhat newly healthy. They may go overlooked with a few of the other offenses on this slate, but they make an elite stacking option in tournaments.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Framber Valdez
I recommended Adrian Houser in my “Battle of the Bales” article, so I’ll pivot to Valdez here. He has thrown well this season, posting a 3-3 record with a 3.61 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP through 17 games (3 starts). He also owns a 3.90 xFIP and a 4.11 SIERA in 2019. Most importantly, Valdez has been at his best at home this season, where his xFIP drops to 3.08. He has held his opponents to a ridiculous 14.7% fly ball rate in Houston, while allowing a 20% HR/FB rate. He has also given up a 39.1% hard hit rate at home, although his soft hit rate sits at an elite 26.1% in those starts. Furthermore, Valdez’s strikeout rate increases to 23% through 24.2 home innings in 2019. He’s a -223 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs tonight, giving his opponents an implied run total of 3.8 runs.
Valdez gets a matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who don’t strikeout at a high rate, but this isn’t truly a matchup based play. He has looked elite against left-handed batters, holding them to a .171 average with a .195 slugging percentage and a .226 wOBA. He has also held his opponents to a .209/.275/.243 line at home this season. Valdez’s price tag seems to be priced more around the fact that he has been a relief pitcher, but he has started each of his last three games, throwing 6+ innings in two of those games. He’s an elite option for his price tag on this slate.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Nicholas Castellanos
Castellanos has caught fire recently, posting a .343 average with a .457 slugging percentage and a .910 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns four extra-base hits, two RBIs, and one stolen base in those contests. Castellanos also boasts 40% hard hit and fly ball rates to go along with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He’s a player that has been at his best against left-handed pitching, as well, recording 0.066 wOBA and 0.026 ISO differentials against lefties.
Castellanos gets a matchup against Mike Minor, which is tough on paper, but may be better than we think. The latter is due for regression, as he ERA (2.52) doesn’t match his xFIP (4.25) or SIERA (4.28) through 16 starts. Minor has also been at his worst against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .230 average with a .355 slugging percentage and a .286 wOBA. He has also struggled more on the road, where he has given up a .233/.402/.298 line this season. Castellanos hasn’t displayed elite power recently, but he’s hitting second in the Detroit Tigers lineup tonight, and his advanced metrics suggest we could see it soon. He’s an elite play for an oddly low price tag on this slate.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
