Pitchers
Max Scherzer/Gerrit Cole- Outside of Chris Sale, these are pretty much the best pitchers in all of MLB DFS when it comes to safety and upside, and even with the debate growing daily about whether or not you should spend up for aces in cash games at pitcher, I just don’t see how you can avoid anchoring your builds with one of them tonight. They both strike out over 33% of batters they’ve faced this season, with Cole all the way up at 38%, and they both have generated over 16% swinging strikes. Of the two, Scherzer has the better matchup with the Marlins ranking second-worst in wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season while striking out 25% of the time, but at the same time Cole is at home in Houston where he has been absolutely lights out — pitching to a 2.07 xFIP with 40% strikeouts. Cole also comes in $900 cheaper on DraftKings, so I think that ultimately he gets the slight nod if picking one, but these are clearly the top two options of this slate and I really would want one of them in cash games, especially on DK where you roster two pitchers.
Note: Whichever you don’t choose becomes an elite GPP play, specifically Max if Cole ends up being significantly higher-owned than him given the pricing difference.
Jack Flaherty- It seems like Flaherty has been under-priced for a few weeks now, and I’m sure everyone will remember last week when he was massively owned in a matchup with the Miami Marlins (and delivered). He doesn’t get as good of a matchup, at least on paper tonight, but he will be at home against a right-handed heavy Athletics team who will be without their DH in an NL park. That “right-handed heavy” part is pretty important for Flaherty, who owns a 3.07 xFIP with 32% strikeouts in the split this season, and is projected to see just two lefties in the lineup tonight. Overall, he has shown that he is too cheap for the kind of upside he provides in a matchup like this, and he is my number one SP2 candidate on DraftKings, where you should be able to easily pair him up with one of Scherzer/Cole. I will note, on FanDuel, he is just $7,900 as well and while I still think that locking in one of the aces in cash games is the most optimal move, starting with Flaherty leaves you $3,400 left per position and he is on my cash game radar if I choose to go all-in for bats.
Madison Bumgarner- Flaherty should end up as the chalky mid-tier option tonight, as he should be, so if you’re looking for a similarly priced pivot off him, look no further than Madison Bumgarner at home against the Colorado Rockies. Anyone that reads this article knows that I played Drew Pomeranz last night, and he proceeded to strike out 11 Rockies over five innings. Now, Pom’s strikeout rate of 26% at home is higher than Bumgarner’s (23%), but the matchup is similar given how bad this Rockies offense struggles on the road. I will also note that that Bum’s strikeout rate rises to 30% against left-handed batters. and outside of Nolan Arenado, the only batters we are really scared of in this lineup are left-handed. Overall, I think Flaherty has a bit more upside, but they do seem closer than I originally thought the more I research and I will label Bumgarner as playable in all formats, on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Building Blocks
Kris Bryant- I’m going to leave this section as one spend-up, and one value play for each site today, because unlike most other slates I don’t think there is one clear direction to go for a cash game build. Last night, everyone in the world was jamming in Cubs/Braves, which is why I said I would be doing that in cash games, but I would be underweight both on that game and on Eduardo Rodriguez in tournaments. Tonight, there are 5+ quality offensive spots to go to, and none of them stick out as “must plays”. So, I think you can spend up at pitching, and take cheaper bats, or you can take Flaherty (or Bumgarner) and get some more expensive bats in. I don’t think either way is a wrong way to go about this slate, I don’t even know what I will end up doing, but that’s part of what makes this slate so fun! So, my top spend up today is going to be Kris Bryant, who gets the left-handed Max Fried with…guess what…15 MPH wind blowing out at Wrigley Field again! We know that Bryant excels against left-handed pitchers, but he should also excel against Fried specifically. Fried throws mainly fastballs — 57% of the time to righties — and this is a pitch that Bryant has (obviously) destroyed the past few seasons, to the tune of a .560 xwOBA and .415 ISO.
Kyle Garlick- We start off the value train with my boy (if you watch the live streams you know), noted lefty masher Kyle Garlick. Garlick has some eye-popping numbers against left-handed pitching this season, mainly his massive .467 ISO (small sample) and he remains ate the minute price tag of $2,200 on DraftKings…$200 off the minimum price. On a slate where I will be looking to plug in an $11K+ pitcher, Garlick fits the mold of a high-upside value plays, who should be in the Dodgers lineup tonight.
Bobby Bradley (FanDuel)- And closing with my top value play on FanDuel, Bobby Bradley, who is also $200 off the minimum at $2,200. Bradley has had a pair of strong games to open up his MLB career with a pair of doubles and RBI’s, and he has a strong matchup tonight against Glenn Sparkman. Sparkman has pitched to a 5.95 xFIP with 43% fly balls and 48% hard hits against left-handed batters this season, and should be in for a long night given that the Indians can throw six-seven lefties at him. Bradley has massive power, slugging over 20 homers in the minors already this season, but the knock on him is that he strikes out a lot…which shouldn’t be a huge issue tonight given that Sparkman has struck out just 14% of lefties he’s faced in 2019.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
