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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
New York Yankees
The New York Yankees make up the “Chalk Stack” again tonight. They have featured an elite offense, ranking third in the MLB in runs scored, fourth in home runs, eighth in team batting average, and fifth in OPS through 78 games. New York has been better on the road, but they are still hitting .258 with a .451 slugging percentage and a .780 OPS through 43 starts at home. They are also averaging 5.2 runs and 2.9 extra-base hits per game in those contests. The Yankees are currently -275 favorites in a game set at 12 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on this slate by a wide margin at 7.7 runs.
New York gets an elite matchup against Clayton Richard, who has struggled through six starts this season. In those games, he owns an 0-3 record with a 7.46 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP. He has also struggled with a 5.62 xFIP and a 5.95 SIERA. Richard has held his opponents to a 23.3% fly ball rate, although he has allowed a 25% HR/FB rate. He has also given up a 41.9% hard hit rate to his opponents, while posting a 24.4% soft hit rate. His strikeout rate sits at only 12% to go along with a 6% swinging strike rate. Richard has been at his worst against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .320 average with a .613 slugging percentage and a .421 wOBA this season. He has also given up a .303/.606/.418 line on the road this season. The Yankees feature a multitude of elite right-handed bats throughout their lineup, and they should see positive regression as they play more games at home this season. Richard’s struggles against right-handed batters and on the road are more than enough to consider New York tonight. Especially given their elite Vegas total, as I can’t remember the last time there was a Vegas line north of 7.5 runs.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs have seen a few ups and downs this season, but they rank 13th in the MLB in runs scored, eighth in home runs and OPS, and 16th in team batting average through 78 games. The Cubs enter this game with a .251 average, .438 slugging percentage, and .778 OPS through 42 home games this season. They also own 4.9 runs and 3.2 extra-base hits in those contests. Chicago is a -104 “favorite” in a game set at 12 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 6.1 runs tonight.
The Cubs get a matchup against Max Fried, who enters this game with an 8-3 record, 4.03 ERA, and 1.34 WHIP through 17 games (15 starts). He has also recorded a solid 3.52 xFIP with a 3.98 SIERA. Fried has held his opponents to a 22% fly ball rate, although he has allowed a 20.4% HR/FB rate. His opponents have posted a 35.5% hard hit rate against him, while he has only recorded a 16.3% soft hit rate. Fried also brings 21.6% strikeout and 10.4% swinging strike rates into this game. He has struggled against right-handed batters this season, allowing them to hit for a .285 average with a .459 slugging percentage and a .334 wOBA. He has also given up a .301/.473/.350 line to his opponents on the road this season. As if that isn’t enough, the wind is expected to be blowing out around 12 MPH tonight. I side slightly with the Chicago Cubs in this game, but the Atlanta Braves are another “Vegas Stack” that can be considered, as I don’t have much faith in Adbert Alzolay tonight either.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
San Diego Padres
The San Diego Padres have struggled a bit offensively this season, ranking 22nd in the MLB in runs scored, 14th in home runs, 23rd in team batting average, and 20th in OPS. They have found significantly more success on the road, where they are hitting .254 with a .450 slugging percentage and a .768 OPS. They are averaging 5.1 runs and 3.6 extra-base hits per game through 37 road games, as well. The Padres are -184 favorites in a game set at 10.5 uns tonight, and they own an implied run total of 6.2 runs.
Jimmy Yacabonis will be serving as the opener for the Baltimore Orioles, while Josh Rogers will serve as the long reliever. Rogers has only thrown in four games this season, posting an 0-1 record with an 8.25 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. He has also posted a career 7.18 xFIP and a 6.20 SIERA through seven games (four starts). Rogers has allowed 48.9% fly ball and 16.3% HR/FB rates, as well. He also enters this game with 43.2% hard hit and 9.1% soft hit rates throughout his career. Furthermore, his strikeout rate sits at only 9.8% to go along with a 6.1% swinging strike rate. Overall, he has been significantly worse against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .342 average with a .699 slugging percentage and a .461 wOBA. He has allowed his opponents to hit for a .296/.537/.383 line at home throughout his career, as well. Baltimore currently owns the 29th ranked bullpen in the MLB in ERA, and there’s very little reason to believe they will find success against San Diego in what should mainly be a bullpen day.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Jack Flaherty
Flaherty has seen mixed results this season, posting a 4-4 record with a 4.24 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP through 15 starts. He also owns a 3.92 xFIP and a 4.01 SIERA in those games. He has held his opponents to a 37.6% fly ball rate to go along with a 19% HR/FB rate. Furthermore, Flaherty has allowed a 40.3% hard hit rate this season, while recording a 23.1% soft hit rate. He enters this game with 26.7% strikeout and 12.8% swinging strike rates, as well. Flaherty has been significantly better at home, as well, where his xFIP drops to 3.26 and his strikeout rate increases to 29.4%. He’s a -144 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 4.1 runs.
Flaherty gets a matchup against the Oakland A’s, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking in the bottom half of the slate in team wOBA. Flaherty has held right-handed batters to a .206 average with a .363 slugging percentage and a .273 wOBA. He has also held his opponents to a .185/.351/.248 line at home in 2019. Flaherty will likely be one of the highest owned pitchers on this slate, and for good reason. He’s far too cheap, and he can be used in all leagues tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Alex Dickerson
Dickerson has caught fire recently, posting a .320 average with a .600 slugging percentage and a .946 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns 4 extra-base hits (1 home run), 11 RBIs, and 1 stolen base. Dickerson has also posted 81% hard hit and 45% fly ball rates with a 101 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days, although those are limited games. Still, he enters this game with 0.399 wOBA and 0.259 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. Again, his at-bats are limited, and these splits are a bit wide because of his lack of at-bats against left-handed pitchers.
Dickerson gets a plus matchup against Chi Chi Gonzalez, who hasn’t thrown in the MLB since 2016, when he struggled with the Texas Rangers. In his short MLB career, Gonzalez has allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .284 average with a .338 slugging percentage and a .318 wOBA. There’s very little reason to believe he’ll find success this time around, and Dickerson is expected to hit second in the San Francisco Giants lineup. He’s a great option for a low price tag, even in a pitcher friendly stadium.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
