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Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Jon Gray
Jon Gray has seen mixed results this season, posting a 7-5 record with a 4.19 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP through 16 games (15 starts). With that being said, he also owns a 3.76 xFIP and a 4.18 SIERA in those games. He has held his opponents to a 27.7% fly ball rate, while allowing a 19.4% HR/FB rate in 2019. He has also held his opponents to a 36.2% hard hit rate, although he only owns a 13.8% soft hit rate this season. Most importantly, Gray boasts 25.4% strikeout and 12.4% swinging strike rates in 2019. He gets an elite matchup against the San Francisco Giants tonight. They lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking last in team wOBA. Gray will be throwing in San Francisco’s pitcher-friendly stadium, as well. He’s a -130 favorite in a game set at only 8 runs, and the Giants own an implied run total of only 3.8 tonight. Gray will likely be the “chalk” option tonight, but it’s nearly impossible to avoid him with only seven games on this slate.
Jason’s Reaction: Gray is the best pitching option available tonight. Roster him in all leagues, and move on.
Jason’s Pick: Eduardo Rodriguez
Despite his 4.71 ERA, Eduardo Rodriguez owns a 8-4 record with a decent 1.36 WHIP in 2019. He is also averaging 16.6 fantasy points per game, and in his last 4 games, he has over 20 fantasy points in 3 of them. The Boston Red Sox left-hander pitches much better at home, posting a 4.00 ERA compared to 5.22 on the road, which has led to an average of over 20 fantasy points at home compared to 14 on the road. In one game against the Chicago White Sox this season, he posted 22.7 fantasy points in 6 innings pitched with the same amount of strikeouts. The White Sox are no longer a team to pick on, as they have been getting much better offensively, but Rodriguez has the highest strikeout prediction on the slate tonight, and without too many other viable fantasy options at pitcher, he can be rostered in all leagues. He is a -170 betting favorite in a game set at 9 total runs, giving the White Sox an implied run total of 4.0. Rodriguez has a ground ball rate over 40%, which should help him keep the scoring to a minimum tonight.
Justin’s Reaction: Rodriguez is the second best option. If you’re playing cash games on this slate, these should be your SP1 and SP2.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Justin Turner
Justin Turner has cooled down quite a bit recently, as he’s only hitting .222 with a .389 slugging percentage and a .652 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he has posted four extra-base hits (one home run) and three RBIs. With that being said, he still owns a 65% hard hit rate with a 98 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days, suggesting he has simply gotten unlucky. Turner gets a tough matchup against Zack Greinke, but he enters this game with a 0.023 wOBA differential against right-handed pitching. He’s expected to hit third in the Los Angeles Dodgers’ lineup, which comes with plenty of upside on any given night. This is less about the recent numbers and matchup, though, and more about Turner simply being too talented for a $4.0K price tag. Whenever he hits this low on DraftKings, I’m willing to slide him into my lineups.
Jason’s Reaction: Turner can be used in tournaments, but there is so much value tonight, especially considering Josh Donaldson is only $4.3K, that I will likely pass expect in one or two tournament lineups.
Jason’s Pick: Rhys Hoskins
Rhys Hoskins gets an elite matchup tonight against the New York Mets and Steven Matz. Matz has been horrible over his last eight starts, posting an ERA of 4.67, while allowing 9 home runs over the course of 44.1 innings pitched. Hoskins’ numbers are down over his last 10 games, but 6 of those games were played away from home, and he is hitting .302 in Philadelphia compared to .241 in other parts of the world. He also has 10 home runs at home compared to 6 home runs away from home. Most importantly, over the last 15 days, Hoskins has an average batted ball distance of 238 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate just under 60%, and a hard hit rate of 44%. Hoskins can be rostered in all leagues.
Justin’s Reaction: Hoskins is one of my favorite players on the slate, as Matz has been a night and day option at home and on the road.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Ronald Acuna
I considered Andrew Benintendi, who is absurdly priced because of his matchup against Lucas Giolito, but I opted to go with Ronald Acuna. The latter has been playing at an extremely high level, posting a .304 average with a .543 slugging percentage and a .928 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns five extra-base hits (three home runs) and five RBIs in those games, as well. Acuna also boasts 51% hard hit and 46% fly ball rates with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He gets a plus matchup against Jon Lester, and he brings 0.072 wOBA and 0.1 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game. As if that isn’t enough, the wind is expected to be blowing out around 15 MPH tonight, giving a major boost to the bats in the game. Furthermore, Acuna is leading off, and Lester is a pitcher that struggles to hold runners on base. For that reason, he boasts an elite combination of stolen base and home run upside in this matchup. Acuna is the top option in the outfield tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: You hit the nail on the head at this position tonight, Justin. Acuna is my favorite outfield option on DraftKings, and Andrew Benintendi can also be used in all leagues.
Jason’s Pick: Jay Bruce
Justin covered who to play in cash games, but in tournaments, look for a little more upside and a little less ownership. That should come in the form of Jay Bruce tonight against the New York Mets and Steven Matz. As previously mentioned, Matz has been horrible over his last few games, and the Philadelphia Phillies should be able to take advantage. Bruce is only hitting .216 over his last 10 games, but he does have 2 home runs and 5 RBIs. As an added bonus, he has reverse power splits against left-handed pitchers, giving him 0.034 ISO and 0.06 wOBA differentials tonight. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 218 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 92 MPH, a fly ball rate of 45%, and a hard hit rate of 35%. He is a serious home run threat tonight, and he should be under-owned, making him a great tournament option.
Justin’s Reaction: I love the Phillies tonight, and I have no problems using someone like Bruce, who is likely going to go overlooked on this slate.
Be sure to follow Justin (@BalesSJustin) and Jason (@BalesTJason) on Twitter!
