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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
New York Yankees
The New York Yankees have featured an elite offense in the MLB this season, and they have recently gotten better. Through 77 games, they rank sixth in the league in runs scored, home runs, and OPS, while also ranking ninth in team batting average. Surprisingly, New York has been worse at home, but they still own a .255 average with a .447 slugging percentage and a .773 OPS through 42 home games. They are averaging 5.1 runs and 2.9 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. Tonight, the Yankees are -250 favorites in a game set at 11 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.9 runs.
New York gets an elite matchup against Aaron Sanchez, who has struggled with a 3-9 record, 5.49 ERA, and 1.67 WHIP through 16 starts this season. He has also posted a 5.31 xFIP and a 5.43 SIERA in those starts. Sanchez has held his opponents to a 29.7% fly ball rate in 2019, although he has allowed a 16.4% HR/FB rate. He has also given up a 35.4% hard hit rate, while recording a 19.5% soft hit rate this season. His strikeout rate sits at only 17.9% to go along with a 9.1% swinging strike rate. Sanchez has been slightly worse against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .286 average with a .464 slugging percentage and a .371 wOBA. He has also allowed lefties to hit for a .274/.429/.340 line in 2019, though. Furthermore, Sanchez has been at his worst on the road, where he has given up a .296/.472/.369 line to his opponents. The Yankees have had some major injuries early in the season – Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton – but they are back in the lineup now. They have also added Edwin Encarnacion to their lineup, and they feature the most dangerous offense in the MLB from top to bottom.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Philadelphia Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies have plenty of ups and downs throughout the 2019 season, ranking 17th in the MLB in runs scored, 24th in home runs, 23rd in team batting average, and 19th in OPS through 77 games. They have found more success in Philadelphia, where they have posted a .242 average with a .428 slugging percentage and a .759 OPS through 40 games. The Phillies have also recorded 5.0 runs and 3.3 extra-base hits per game in those contests. They are currently -125 favorites in a game set at 10 runs, and they own an implied run total of 5.3 runs tonight.
Steven Matz will be taking the mound for the New York Mets tonight. He has found some success this season, posting a 5-5 record with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP through 14 starts. He also owns a 4.35 xFIP and a 4.37 SIERA this season. That doesn’t tell the entire story, though, as he’s a night and day pitcher at home and on the road. Away from home, Matz’s xFIP balloons to 5.09. He has also given up a 37.8% fly ball rate with a 25% HR/FB rate on the road. Furthermore, Matz has allowed his opponents to post a 42.5% hard hit rate, while recording only a 15% soft hit rate in those games. His strikeout rate also dips to only 18.9% on the road this season. Matz has struggled more against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .328 average with a .563 slugging percentage and a .401 wOBA. He has also allowed righties to hit for a .242/.453/.317 line this season. Away from home, he has given up a .288/.569/.377 line, as well. The Phillies are likely going to go overlooked tonight, but this is a matchup they can take advantage of in a hitter friendly stadium.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
CC Sabathia
Sabathia has thrown well this season, posting a 4-4 record with a 4.14 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP through 12 starts. He’s due for a bit of regression, though, as he also owns a 4.96 xFIP and a 4.79 SIERA in those games. Sabathia’s biggest struggles this season have come from 42.2% fly ball and 19.2% HR/FB rates. He has also allowed his opponents to hit for a 43.9% hard hit rate, while recording a 21.9% soft hit rate. Sabathia enters this game with 21.2% strikeout and 10.4% swinging strike rates, as well. Still, he’s a -250 favorite in a game set at 11 runs tonight, and his opponents feature an implied run total of 4.2 runs.
Sabathia gets a great matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays, who rank fifth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking as an average offense in team wOBA. Sabathia has been at his best against left-handed batters, holding them to a .152 average with a .283 slugging percentage and a .211 wOBA. He has also held his opponents to a .207/.355/.275 line at home this season. While he is due for regression, he could potentially avoid it in a plus matchup tonight. With somewhat limited options on this slate, Sabathia makes a great play for a low price tag.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Kyle Schwarber
Schwarber has cooled off a bit recently, posting a .222 average with a .444 slugging percentage and a .708 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns four extra-base hits (two home runs) and three RBIs. Schwarber also boasts 45% hard hit and fly ball rates to go along with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Furthermore, he enters this game with 0.037 wOBA and 0.045 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Schwarber gets a great matchup against Julio Teheran, who is due for regression. He has held his opponents to a 9.7% HR/FB rate in 2019, although he has given up a 38.6% fly ball rate. He has also allowed a 39.8% hard hit rate this season. Teheran has also struggled against left-handed batters throughout his career, allowing them to hit for a .253 average with a .435 slugging percentage and a .336 wOBA. Schwarber will be leading off for the Chicago Cubs, and the wind is blowing out to right at 15 MPH. He’s an elite option for a surprisingly low price tag on this slate.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
