Pitchers
Chris Sale- Advanced metrics aside, Chris Sale is the top dog on this slate in both price and ability, and it’s going to require that we decide whether or not we can find enough value bats to fit him in on this massive Friday slate. After a rough few starts to the season, he’s rebounded and been pretty much the same Sale we have always known, striking out 35% of batters he’s faced. He has an elite matchup tonight against the Toronto Blue Jays who have been dreadful against southpaws this season (and all pitchers for that matter) and are striking out at a top-ten rate against them. Sale has the strikeout ability to counter-act any runs he gives up, and he is undoubtedly the top play in all formats for me in this matchup, even at a massive price tag.
Walker Buehler- Buehler provides a few hundred dollars in savings off of Sale, and while I would prefer getting up to Sale in cash games, Buehler sticks out as a fantastic pivot off of him tournaments (maybe cash games if you need the money?). Buehler is another guy that had a really rocky start to 2019, but has turned it around with just over 30% strikeouts over the lasy 30 days, and seven quality starts in his last eight appearances. He gets a really strong matchup at home against the Colorado Rockies, who are not a good road offense to begin with, but will also be without Trevor Story (IL) and potentially Nolan Arenado (nursing injury) in this game. The Rockies strike out over a quarter of the time on the road, with a bottom-five wRC+…with Story/Arenado playing. I’m not concerned with the amount of lefties that they can throw at him tonight, seeing as Buehler still manages over 24% strikeouts to lefties with more ground balls than to righties, and overall Buehler is second to Sale on this slate for me and playable in all formats on Friday night.
Aaron Nola- Ohhhhhhh man, I really don’t think I’m excited for this. Nola has struggled pretty badly this season, but it’s almost July and I still haven’t figured out why. His control has been probably the biggest issue (10% walks compared to 7% last season), but nothing appears really wrong with his pitch mix, individual pitches, or velocity. I talk quite often about how I hate playing guys who walk too many batters in DFS, ESPECIALLY in cash games, but I think we simply have to ignore that tonight with Nola price at just $8,000 on DraftKings in a matchup with the Miami Marlins. I will note, I will not be targeting him as an SP1 on single pitcher sites, I am solely interested in him in cash games on DraftKings as my SP2 (mainly due to inflated ownership) and I will be underweight on him in GPPs. The Marlins are the perfect matchup for him to get on track and post at least a solid start, but again, it won’t even really matter if he gives up a few runs now that his price is all the way down to where it’s at. He’s part of why it seems easy to play Sale on DraftKings, and I fully expect Sale/Nola to be the chalk cash game pairing tonight.
Joe Musgrove- I really don’t see myself getting off of Sale/Nola in a cash game build, so this might be more suited for GPPs, but I just wan’t to point out that Joe Musgrove is only $5,500 on DraftKings against the San Diego Padres. Musgrove is someone that I think has gotten extremely unlucky this season both from a strikeout perspective and run prevention — for example, 18% strikeouts compared to 11% swinging strikes, and a .373 BABIP over the last 30 days. Now he gets the Padres, who still strike out the most in the league against right-handed pitching, and I think on a slate like this I would gladly take 10 points from a pitcher at his price while also fitting in an ace + bats. I’m not leaving it out of the conversation for cash games for me right now, and I think regardless it’s a really sharp single entry/GPP strategy.
Tournament Pool: Chris Sale, Trevor Bauer, Matt Boyd, Sonny Gray
Building Blocks
Asdrubal Cabrera- The Rangers will once again be one of the top teams to focus on in cash game builds tonight, playing at home in the Texas heat against Reynaldo Lopez and a horrible White Sox bullpen. Lopez can sometimes be frustrating to stack against given that he is such an extreme fly-ball pitcher, sometimes those fly balls simply turn to fly outs and he can survive allowing only a few runs. The heat in Texas should definitely help the Rangers case, especially when you factor in that Lopez has surrendered over a .200 ISO to both sides of the plate this season. Cabrera comes into tonight boasting a .220 ISO against right-handed pitching and is affordable exposure to the middle of this lineup.
David Peralta- Peralta is another cash game playable outfielder, coming in at only $4,400 on DraftKings despite Jeff Samardzija toeing the rubber for the Giants. Samardzija has been a train wreck on the road this season, pitching to a 5.36 xFIP with 40% hard hits allowed and 47% fly balls away from San Francisco. Peralta’s 129 ISO and .243 ISO vs right-handed pitching this season provides tons of upside for an affordable price, and can be used even as a one-off.
Didi Gregorious- Brad Peacock has been good against right-handed batters this season, but he will be tasked with a different beast on Friday night, the New York Yankees, who might also get Aaron Judge back into the lineup as well. This Yankees lineup is an absolute death row of hitters, and it’s clear that when picking on Peacock, it needs to be done with left-handed batters. Peacock’s xFIP rises from 3.54 to 5.63 in the split, with his ground balls dropping from 50% to 29% with over 10% more hard-contact. Didi should continue to have players on base in front of him while this lineup gets more and more healthy, and he comes in priced at an ultra-affordable $3,800 on DraftKings.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
