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Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola has struggled quite a bit through 15 starts this season, posting a 6-1 record with a 4.89 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP. With that being said, he’s due for positive regression, as he owns a 3.91 xFIP and a 4.30 SIERA in those games. His fly ball rate is back down to only 27.3%, but his HR/FB rate still sits at 21%. I expect the latter to see positive regression, as it’s still significantly higher than his career average. He has allowed a 38% hard hit rate, while recording a 17.5% soft hit rate in 2019, as well. Nola enters this game with 25.1% strikeout and 8.9% swinging strike rates. Most importantly, he gets a matchup against the Miami Marlins, who strikeout at an above average rate on this slate, while also ranking last in team wOBA. Nola has been an elite pitcher at home throughout his career, and he’s a -210 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs tonight. He’s cheap enough to safely be considered in all leagues.
Jason’s Reaction: Nola is my favorite value pitching option tonight.
Jason’s Pick: Chris Sale
With the advanced metrics that Chris Sale possess, it doesn’t matter how expensive his price tag gets, he is worth every dollar. To begin, the Toronto Blue Jays, one of the league’s less dangerous offenses, are travelling into Boston to square off against the Red Sox in a game that Vegas has set at a total of 8.5 runs. Chris Sale and company are -340 betting favorites at home against Trent Thornton and his squad. That gives the Blue Jays an implied run total of 2.9. Sale also, due to his incredible 14.0 K/9 rate, has a strikeout projection almost in the double-digits, which happens to be the highest on the slate. He pitches slightly better at home, and he should see ample run support tonight. In the last 15 days, his fly ball rate is down at 33%, and his hard hit rate is even lower at 29%. In his last 10 starts, he has an ERA of 2.14, 106 strikeouts in 67.1 innings pitched, and only 14 walks. He is averaging over 30 fantasy points per game over that same time span. Sale is pitching on another level, especially from a fantasy perspective with his strikeout ability, so roster him in both cash games and tournaments tonight, even with his high $12.0K price tag.
Justin’s Reaction: Personally, I’ve been struggling to convince myself to pay up for pitchers recently, but you have to use Sale in cash games tonight. He’s far and away the best option, and he’s going to be owned through the roof.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Yoan Moncada
Yoan Moncada has been playing at an elite level recently, posting a .382 average with a .676 slugging percentage and a 1.124 OPS over his last 10 games. He has also recorded five extra-base hits (two home runs) and five RBIs in those games. Furthermore, he boasts a 57% hard hit rate with a 97 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Moncada has been a more consistent and more powerful option on the road this season, and he gets an elite matchup against Ariel Jurado in one of the more hitter friendly stadiums in the MLB tonight. Moncada has enters this game with 0.076 wOBA and 0.124 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. He’s expected to hit second in the Chicago White Sox lineup, and he’s a player that can be considered in all leagues tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: Moncada is another one of my favorite plays tonight. Nice recommendation.
Jason’s Pick: J.P. Crawford
A few years ago, Justin and I, along with a couple of friends, went to see the Reading Phillies. J.P. Crawford was there, and while we weren’t expecting autographs (seeing as we were in our early 20’s…), a lot of little kids were (and a couple adults… okay, fine… us… we were expecting autographs). Crawford completely ignored his fan base, despite having a terrible season, and I’ve been salty about him ever since, but we can’t let personal feelings seep into our DFS recommendations. With Chris Sale being so expensive, value is needed at other positions. Right now, Crawford is providing that kind of value. His upside is slightly limited due to his lack of power at the plate, but he is hitting over .250 in his last 10 games with 6 RBIs, 8 walks, and 1 steal. The stolen base potential is definitely a plus in tournaments. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 240 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 94 MPH, a fly ball rate over 40%, and a hard hit rate of 44%. He is expected to hit second for the Seattle Mariners, a team that is expected to score just under five runs tonight via Vegas. Crawford can be rostered in all leagues based on his low price tag, but seriously, if anyone knows him, tell him to check that ego.
Justin’s Reaction: I have been using Crawford on a nightly basis for quite some time. He’s way too cheap, but that is a true story. We haven’t really liked him ever since.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Willie Calhoun
Reynaldo Lopez has struggled to find any success on the road this season, and he’ll now be throwing in one of the more hitter friendly stadiums tonight. This makes a great matchup for Willie Calhoun, who enters this game with 0.161 wOBA and 0.142 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. Keep in mind, he has only played in 10 games in 2019, but he owns a .333 average with a .615 slugging percentage and a .981 OPS in them. Overall, he boasts five extra-base hits (three home runs) and nine RBIs in those contests. He has also recorded 46% hard hit and fly ball rates over the last 15 days, although he has played in limited games over that span. He’s expected to hit fifth in the Texas Rangers offense, which I expect to find plenty of success tonight. He’s still reasonably cheap, and he’s an option that can be considered in all league on this massive slate.
Jason’s Reaction: I’ll never say no to anyone hitting against Reynaldo Lopez right now.
Jason’s Pick: Max Kepler
No player in the league is swinging the bat as well as Max Kepler right now, aside from Mike Trout. In his last 10 games, he has a batting average of .325 to go along with his 4 home runs, 10 RBIs, 7 walks, and 12.3 fantasy points per game. He has 19 home runs on the season now, and he is slowly starting to gain on the league’s best power hitters. Against the Kansas City Royals this season, he is hitting .375 with 1 home run, 5 RBIs, and 5 walks in 24 at-bats. He will enter tonight’s game hitting leadoff with positive 0.129 ISO and 0.069 wOBA differentials. With 0.056 HR/AB and 0.023 SB/G, the upside is clear. The weather is going to be great in Kansas City, as the temperate will be above 85 degrees, and the wind will blow around 12 MPH out toward left. Most impressively, in the last 15 days, Kepler has an average batted ball distance of 232 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate over 50%, and a hard hit rate over 60%. Continue to ride Kepler while he is hot, even if that means spending down at other positions. His price tag is high, but his production is higher.
Justin’s Reaction: Remember in the beginning of the season when I said Kepler was going to breakout? Then a few games in I said if you aren’t already on the Kepler train, get out of the way cause we’re rolling? Well, it’s still going. This is more than a breakout. Use him in all leagues.
Be sure to follow Justin (@BalesSJustin) and Jason (@BalesTJason) on Twitter!
