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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers have found plenty of offensive success this season, ranking third in the MLB in runs scored, 15th in home runs, and 12th in team batting average and OPS. Texas has also found more success at home, where they boast a .258 average with a .463 slugging percentage and a .796 OPS. They are averaging 5.7 runs and 3.7 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. Tonight, the Rangers are -137 favorites in a game set at 11.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.3 runs.
Texas gets an elite matchup against Reynaldo Lopez, who has struggled quite a bit this season. Through 15 starts, he owns a 4-7 record with a 6.31 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. He has also posted a 5.71 xFIP and a 5.10 SIERA in those starts. Lopez has also given up 49.4% fly ball and 15.4% HR/FB rates in 2019. Furthermore, his opponents own a 39% hard hit rate against him this season, while he owns only an 18.9% soft hit rate. His strikeout rate sits at only 20.8% to go along with a 10.4% swinging strike rate. Lopez has struggled against everyone in 2019. He has allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .299 average with a .519 slugging percentage and a .386 wOBA, while righties have been able to post a .281/.557/.367 line against him. Lopez has also given up a .314/.570/.401 line to his opponents on the road this season. The weather is ideal for hitting tonight, and the Rangers feature an offense that can find success against the best pitchers when playing at home. There’s very little reason to believe they won’t be able to dominate a pitcher as bad as Lopez tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox have featured one of the better offenses in the MLB through 76 games. They currently rank fifth in the MLB in runs scored, 13th in home runs, sixth in team batting average, and seventh in OPS. The Red Sox have been slightly better at home, where they own a .262 average with a .455 slugging percentage and a .796 OPS. They are also averaging 5.4 runs and 3.8 extra-base hits per game at home. Boston is currently a massive -322 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs tonight. They feature an implied run total of 5.6 runs on this slate.
The Red Sox get a plus matchup against Trent Thornton, who has posted a 2-5 record with a 4.36 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP through 15 starts. He has also allowed a 4.36 xFIP and a 4.73 SIERA in those starts. He has struggled at times, allowing 38.6% fly ball and 13.6% HR/FB rates in 2019. Thornton has also allowed his opponents to hit for a 36.8% hard hit rate, while posting a 20.8% soft hit rate. He enters this game with 24.2% strikeout and 10.7% swinging strike rates, as well. He has been significantly worse against left-handed batters in 2019, allowing them to hit for a .262 average with a .503 slugging percentage and a .355 wOBA. Thornton has found success on the road this season, holding his opponents to a .218/.324/.283 line in those games. With that being said, it’s hard to believe he’ll find success in Boston, which is a relatively hitter friendly stadium. The Red Sox are a different monster at home, and they should find plenty of success in this game.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Philadelphia Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies have seen mixed results offensively through 74 games this season. They currently rank 17th in the MLB in runs scored, 23rd in home runs, 22nd in team batting average, and 18th in OPS. They have found more success in Philadelphia, where they have posted a .244 average with a .436 slugging percentage and a .769 OPS through 37 games. They are averaging 5.2 runs and 3.3 extra-base hits per game in those contests. The Phillies are a -242 favorite in a game set at 8 runs tonight, and they own an implied run total of 5.0 runs.
Sandy Alcantara will be taking the mound for the Miami Marlins. He has quietly performed well this season, posting a 3-6 record with a 3.73 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP through 14 starts. With that being said, he’s due for regression, as he owns a 5.01 xFIP and a 5.41 SIERA in those contests. Alcantara has held his opponents to 30.6% fly ball and 8.1% HR/FB rates this season. He has also held his opponents to a 34.1% hard hit rate, while recording a 19.7% soft hit rate. His strikeout rate sits at only 16.7% in 2019, although he owns an 11.6% swinging strike rate. Alcantara has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .266 average with a .387 slugging percentage and a .318 wOBA. He has also struggled on the road, where his opponents have posted a .265/.419/.348 line against him in 2019. Alcantara’s road struggles are likely to continue tonight, as well, as he will get no help from Philadelphia’s hitter friendly stadium.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Joe Musgrove
Musgrove has seen mixed results during the 2019 season, as he owns a 4-7 record witha 4.87 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP through 15 games (14 starts). He has also posted a 4.74 xFIP and a 4.73 SIERA this season. Musgrove has allowed a 34.7% fly ball rate in 2019, although he has held his opponents to an 8.3% HR/FB rate. He has also given up a 39.3% hard hit rate to go along with a 17.2% soft hit rate. His strikeout rate only sits at 18.4% this season, but his 11.1% swinging strike rate suggests he could see positive regression on that. Tonight, he’s a -111 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 4.7 runs.
Musgrove gets a matchup against the San Diego Padres, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking in the bottom-six in team wOBA. Musgrove has found significantly more success against right-handed batters, holding them to a .209 average with a .351 slugging percentage and a .280 wOBA. He has struggled with a .284/.546/.359 line at home in 2019, but his advanced metrics suggest he’s in line for positive regression in Pittsburgh. Musgrove isn’t necessarily the safest option, but he’s an elite play for his current price tag on this slate.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
J.P. Crawford
Crawford has caught fire recently, as he’s hitting .257 with a .371 slugging percentage and a .767 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns four extra-base hits, six RBIs, and one stolen base. He has also scored fantasy points in each of his last 10 games, including four contests with double-digit fantasy points. Furthermore, Crawford boasts 44% hard hit and fly ball rates with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Sean Gilmart is expected to start this game, but it will be a bullpen game for the Baltimore Orioles, as he will likely be capped at 50 pitches. Crawford has found more success against right-handed pitching, as he owns 0.169 wOBA and 0.18 ISO differentials against righties. He’s also expected to hit second in the Seattle Mariners offense, and he’s far too cheap on this slate. Even in a bullpen game, Crawford is far too cheap on this slate.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
