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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins have featured the best offense in the MLB this season, leading the league in runs scored, home runs, and OPS, while also ranking second in the MLB in team batting average. Minnesota has been better on the road, where they boast a .288 average with a .541 slugging percentage and a .887 OPS. In those 36 games, they are averaging a healthy 6.6 runs and 4.6 extra-base hits per game. They are currently -205 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving them an implied run total of 5.7 runs.
Minnesota gets a great matchup against Glenn Sparkman tonight. He has struggled through 13 games (5 starts) this season, posting a 1-3 record with a 4.01 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. He has also recorded a 5.25 xFIP and a 5.24 SIERA in those starts. Sparkman has allowed 33.6% fly ball and 12.2% HR/FB rates this season, as well. His opponents have posted a 41.5% hard hit rate in 2019, while he has only recorded a 10.9% soft hit rate. His strikeout rate sits at only 13% to go along with a 7.3% swinging strike rate. He has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .289 average with a .553 slugging percentage and a .380 wOBA. He has also allowed a .248/.376/.288 line in Kansas City this season. While Sparkman does own better numbers at home in 2019, his advanced metrics suggest that he is due for major regression at home as he throws more innings. That regression could come against the best offense in the MLB, and the Twins will be one of a couple “Chalk Stacks” on this slate.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Los Angeles Angels
The Los Angeles Angels have found plenty of success through 75 games this season. They currently rank 10th in the MLB in runs scored and OPS, 11th in home runs, and ninth in team batting average. The Angels have featured a better offense on the road this season, as they own a .261 average with a .429 slugging percentage and a .765 OPS through 38 road games. They are averaging 5.2 runs and 3.2 extra-base hits per game in those contests. They are -147 favorites in a game set at 10.5 runs tonight, and they feature the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.8 runs.
The Angels get a matchup against Clayton Richard, who has struggled through five starts this season. Overall, he owns an 0-3 record with a 7.53 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP. He has also posted a 5.63 xFIP and a 5.97 SIERA through 20.1 innings this season. Richard has held his opponents to a 22.1% fly ball rate, although he has also allowed a 26.7% HR/FB rate. He has given up a 42.6% hard hit rate, while posting a 23.5% soft hit rate in 2019, as well. Richard has also struggled a bit with 12.6% strikeout and 5.9% swinging strike rates. He has struggled more against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .322 average with a .627 slugging percentage and a .430 wOBA. He has also allowed his opponents to hit for a .283/.522/.385 line at home this season. The Angels come with plenty of upside, and this is an ideal matchup for them.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Baltimore Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles have struggled offensively this season, ranking only 27th in the MLB in runs scored, 23rd in home runs, 24th in team batting average, and 26th in OPS through 74 games. They have struggled quite a bit on the road, where they own a .233 average with a .375 slugging percentage and a .665 OPS. The Orioles also are averaging 3.8 runs and 2.7 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Baltimore is a +124 underdog in a game set at 9 runs, and they own an implied run total of 4.2 runs.
Wade LeBlanc will be taking the mound for the Seattle Mariners tonight. He has struggled quite a bit through nine games (six starts) this season, recording a 3-2 record with a 6.20 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. He has also posted a 5.23 xFIP and a 4.78 SIERA in those games. LeBlanc has also given up 41.5% fly ball and 15.2% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has allowed his opponents to record a 39% hard hit rate against him this season, while posting only an 8.2% soft hit rate. LeBlanc enters this game with 16.7% strikeout and 8% swinging strike rates, as well. He has struggled against everyone this season. Left-handed batters are hitting for a .289 average with a .533 slugging percentage and a .347 wOBA, while righties have posted a .293/.537/.363 against him. Furthermore, LeBlanc has allowed his opponents to post a .290/.542/.367 line in Seattle. While Baltimore has struggled offensively and will be playing in a pitcher friendly stadium tonight, the matchup against LeBlanc makes them a stack worth considering on this slate.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Adam Wainwright
Wainwright has seen plenty of ups and downs throughout the 2019 season, entering this game with a 5-6 record, 4.46 ERA, and 1.40 WHIP through 13 starts. He has also posted a 4.46 xFIP and a 4.84 SIERA in those games. Wainwright has also held his opponents to 27.9% fly ball and 16.1% HR/FB rates. He has allowed a 43.2% hard hit rate, while recording only a 13.6% soft hit rate, though. Wainwright also brings 20.2% strikeout and 7.4% swinging strike rates into this game. He’s currently a -186 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, giving him opponents an implied run total of only 3.4 runs.
Wainwright gets a matchup against the Miami Marlins, who don’t necessarily strikeout at the highest rate on this slate. With that being said, they rank last in team wOBA. Wainwright has been significantly better against right-handed batters, holding them to a .215 average with a .333 slugging percentage and a .275 wOBA. He has also held his opponents to a .236/.378/.305 line in 2019. Wainwright has looked outstanding at home this season, and he makes a great option in all leagues for a low price tag.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
J.P. Crawford
Crawford has been playing relatively well recently, posting a .250 average with a .361 slugging percentage and a .733 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns four extra-base hits and seven RBIs over that span. Crawford has posted 47% hard hit and 52% fly ball rates with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has also been at his best against right-handed pitching, recording 0.165 wOBA and 0.176 ISO differentials against righties.
Crawford gets a plus matchup against Dylan Bundy, who has struggled with a 4.70 xFIP and a 4.35 SIERA this season. He has struggled against left-handed batters this season, allowing them to hit for a .252 average with a .417 slugging percentage and a .317 wOBA. Crawford is expected to hit second in the Seattle Mariners lineup, and he is a safe option, who also comes with tremendous upside. He can safely be considered in all leagues for his current price tag.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
