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Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Jon Lester
Jon Lester has seen mixed results through 13 starts this season, posting a 5-5 record with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. He also owns a 4.20 xFIP and a 4.17 SIERA in those games. Lester has allowed 36.6% fly ball and 15.4% HR/FB rates to his opponents in 2019. He has given up a 42.1% hard hit rate, while recording only a 14.4% soft hit rate, as well. He enters this game with a 22.6% strikeout rate to go along with an 8.2% swinging strike rate. With that being said, he has been significantly better at home, where his xFIP drops to 3.65 with an 11.1% HR/FB rate and a 39.6% hard hit rate. Furthermore, his strikeout rate jumps to 24.2% in Chicago this season. Lester has found more success against right-handed batters in 2019, holding them to a .265 average with a .455 slugging percentage and a .324 wOBA. He has also held his opponents to a .274/.411/.305 line at home through 36.2 innings in Chicago. Most importantly, Lester gets a matchup against the Chicago White Sox, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking third last in team wOBA. He’s a -146 favorite in a game set at only 7 runs, and the White Sox feature an implied run total of only 3.2 runs tonight. Lester can be used in all leagues for a low price tag.
Jason’s Reaction: Lester’s price tag does not reflect his matchup tonight at all. The Vegas line, along with his strikeout prediction, is enough to warrant rostering him in all formats. Nice recommendation.
Jason’s Pick: Rich Hill
Rich Hill is easy to roster tonight due to all the value at both the pitcher position and other positions. Hill has been great this season, as he is currently sporting a 2.60 ERA, 4-1 record, and 1.14 WHIP. At home, his batting average allowed drops from .263 to .226, and his WHIP drops from 1.29 to 1.03. The San Francisco Giants are one of the worst teams in the league, especially from an offensive perspective, and they strikeout 0.286 times per at-bat. Hill has a strikeout prediction over 7, and he is a -245 favorite in a game set at 7.5 total runs via Vegas. That gives the Giants an implied run total of 2.9, the lowest on the slate. Hill should easily hit value, especially considering all the Giants’ power hitters hit from the left side of the plate. He can be safely rostered in both cash games and tournaments without hesitation.
Justin’s Reaction: I have no problems with Hill tonight, but I’ve been using the strategy of paying down at pitcher, and I’m going to do that again tonight.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Justin Turner
Justin Turner has been playing well recently, as he owns a .294 average with a .441 slugging percentage and a .800 OPS over his last 10 games. He has posted three extra-base hits (one home run) and three RBIs in those games, as well. Furthermore, he enters this game with 66% hard hit and 36% fly ball rates with a 98 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Turner gets a plus matchup against Drew Pomeranz, and he owns a 0.041 ISO differential against left-handed pitching. There are a plethora of strong options on this slate, but Turner is expected to hit second in what should be one of the highest scoring offenses tonight. He’s a safe option in this matchup, but also comes with tremendous upside. For his current price tag, he can safely be considered in all leagues.
Jason’s Reaction: Turner is definitely too cheap tonight. I feel comfortable rostering him in all formats, as well.
Jason’s Pick: Kike Hernandez
Kike Hernandez makes for a very interesting option on DraftKings tonight, especially in tournaments. His $3.2K price tag is far too low, as he is expected to hit leadoff for the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight, and with Drew Pomeranz on the mound, Hernandez adds a 0.026 wOBA differential. He has both home run and stolen base potential, but most importantly, he only needs a hit and a run to hit value. In the last 15 days, Hernandez has been struggling at the plate, but his luck is soon to change, if advanced metrics can tell us anything. He has an average batted ball distance of 214 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate over 40%, and a hard hit rate just under 60%. Hernandez has both second base and outfield eligibility, making him a versatile option, and it would be wise to find a way to roster him tonight.
Justin’s Reaction: The Dodgers make a great stack tonight, and Hernandez is a strong piece of that offense.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Bryce Harper
I was considering using any of the top three Boston Red Sox outfielders in this slot, but Bryce Harper is entirely too cheap. He has posted a .250 average with a .389 slugging percentage and a .746 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts three extra-base hits (one home run), six RBIs, and one stolen base over that span. Harper has also recorded a 41% hard hit rate with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Surprisingly, he has been better against left-handed pitching, but he gets an elite matchup against Austin Voth. While I don’t expect Voth to throw deep into this game, he has struggled in both the Triple-A and MLB throughout his career, and there’s very little reason to believe he’ll find success in this matchup. Truthfully, I’d play Harper against any pitcher in the MLB for a $3.8K price tag. The majority of the Philadelphia Phillies hitters feature egregious pricing on this slate, and Harper is the worst of the group. He will likely be the highest owned player tonight, but do not avoid him (specifically on DraftKings).
Jason’s Reaction: Again, Harper’s price tag is definitely too low. Justin recommended quite a few value options. Luckily, I’ll spend all your money.
Jason’s Pick: Mike Trout
Well, considering all the value options recommended today, fantasy owners are going to be left with quite a bit of salary to spend. Insert Mike Trout. Trout is not just an expensive option, but he provides value despite his expensive price tag. Over his last 10 games, he is hitting just under .300 with 4 home runs, 8 RBIs, and 7 walks. The Los Angeles Angels get a great matchup tonight against the Toronto Blue Jays and Aaron Sanchez. Trout will enter tonight’s game with 0.124 ISO and 0.075 wOBA differentials, and he also averages 0.08 home runs per at-bat and 0.11 steals per game. His upside is tremendous, and in a game where the Angels are expected to score over five runs, he will be a large part of the reason why. There is no reason to avoid Trout on tonight’s slate because the money is there; spend it.
Justin’s Reaction: If I’m spending up, it’ll be on Trout. Great call here.
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