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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Cleveland Indians
The Cleveland Indians make up the “Chalk Stack” once again tonight. They have struggled offensively this season. Through 72 games, they rank 22nd in the MLB in runs scored and home runs, 26th in team batting average, and 23rd in OPS. Cleveland has been better on the road this season, where they own a .240 average with a .412 slugging percentage and a .726 OPS through 35 games. They are also averaging 4.4 runs and 3.1 extra-base hits per game away from home. Tonight, the Indians are -112 favorites in a game set at 11 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on this slate at 5.7 runs.
Cleveland gets a matchup against Joe Palumbo tonight. He has thrown in only one game this season, allowing four earned runs (one home run) over only four innings against the Oakland A’s. He has performed well in the MiLB, posting an 18-17 record with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP through 98 games (47 starts). Palumbo has posted a 10.5 K/9 and a 0.5 HR/9 in the minors this season. With that being said, he owns roughly a 4.0 xFIP since joining the Texas Rangers Double-A team. He has also allowed nearly a 40% fly ball rate in those games, and his HR/FB rate is simply unsustainable, specifically in the MLB. Even more telling, Palumbo only owns three pitches with 68.2% of his pitches comes as fastballs in his first MLB start. He certainly comes with career upside, but he isn’t ready for the MLB at this point in time, especially in Texas’ hitter friendly stadium. It’s safe to assume right-handed bats will find more success against Palumbo, but I’m not necessarily avoiding lefties against him either. Cleveland is coming off of a big game last night, and they make a strong stacking option again tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves have found plenty of offensive success this season, ranking fourth in the MLB in runs scored and OPS, 10th in home runs, and third in team batting average. They have been at their best at home, where they have recorded a .278 average with a .494 slugging percentage and a .849 OPS. The Braves are averaging 5.9 runs and 3.7 extra-base hits per game through 40 home games. Atlanta is currently a -150 favorite in a game set at 10 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 5.6 runs tonight.
The Braves get a matchup against Steven Matz, who has been a night and day pitcher at home and on the road this season. Through seven road starts, he owns a 2-4 record with a 5.79 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP. He has also struggled with a 4.70 xFIP on the road this season. Matz has allowed 37.6% fly ball and 24.4% HR/FB rates away from home, as well. Furthermore, he has given up a 43.1% hard hit rate to his opponents in those games, while recording only a 15.6% soft hit rate. As if that isn’t enough, his strikeout rate has dropped to only 20.5% in those contests. Matz has been at his worst against left-handed batters in 2019, allowing them to hit for a .322 average with a .525 slugging percentage and a .389 wOBA. He has given up a .240/.442/.308 line to righties, as well. Furthermore, Matz has allowed his opponents to post a .286/.550/.365 line on the road this season. The Braves come with tremendous upside at home, and this is an elite matchup for them.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Washington Nationals
Let’s try this one more time. The Washington Nationals have featured an average offense this season, ranking 15th in the MLB in runs and OPS, 17th home runs, 14th in team batting average. They have been a better offense at home, posting a .262 average with a .452 slugging percentage and a .786 OPS through 34 home games. The Nationals are averaging 5.0 runs and 3.4 extra-base hits per game in Washington. The line isn’t out at the moment because Washington’s pitcher hasn’t been announced, but their implied total is likely to be around 5.0 runs tonight.
Jake Arrieta will be taking the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies. He enters this game with a 6-5 record, 4.31 ERA, and 1.45 WHIP through 14 starts. He has also struggled with a 4.49 xFIP and a 4.87 SIERA in those starts. Arrieta has held his opponents to a 27.1% fly ball rate, although he has allowed a 20% HR/FB rate. He has also given up a 38.3% hard hit rate, while holding his opponents to only a 17.2% soft hit rate. He has been significantly worse against left-handed batters this season, allowing them to hit for a .293 average with a .531 slugging percentage and a .380 wOBA. He has also struggled on the road, where he has allowed a .297/.527/.367 line this season. Furthermore, Arrieta’s HR/FB rate has jumped to 28.6% on the road in 2019. The Nationals come with quite a bit of risk, but they’re likely going to go overlooked because of the matchup. They feature one of the highest implied run totals on the slate, and they make up an elite stacking option in tournaments tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Jon Lester
Lester has seen mixed results through the 2019 season. Through 13 starts, he owns a 5-5 record with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. He has also posted a 4.20 xFIP and a 4.16 SIERA in those starts. He has held his opponents to 36.6% fly ball and 15.4% HR/FB rates in 2019. Lester’s opponents have posted a 42.1% hard hit rate against him this season, while he has recorded only a 14.4% soft hit rate in 2019. He also enters this game with 22.6% strikeout and 8.2% swinging strike rates. He’s a -143 favorite in a game set at 7 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 3.2 runs tonight.
Lester gets a matchup against the Chicago White Sox, who rank second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking second last in team wOBA. He has been better against right-handed batters this season, holding them to a .265 average with a .455 slugging percentage and a .324 wOBA. He has also held his opponents to a .274/.411/.305 line at home this season. This is a plus matchup for Lester, and he’s cheap enough to be considered in all leagues tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Bryce Harper
Over his last 10 games, Harper owns a .250 average with a .389 slugging percentage and a .746 OPS. Harper has also posted three extra-base hits (one home run), six RBIs, and one stolen base in those contests. He boasts a 41% hard hit rate with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. He has been better against left-handed pitching this season, but he owns a career .284 average with a .533 slugging percentage, .932 OPS, .250 ISO, and .392 wOBA against right-handed pitching.
Harper is expected to get a matchup against Max Scherzer, who broke his nose during bunting practice last night. Scherzer has looked outstanding this season, posting a 2.94 xFIP and a 2.96 SIERA through 15 starts. He has allowed a 36.9% fly ball rate, while holding his opponents to a 9% HR/FB rate. Scherzer has also given up a 39.3% hard hit rate in 2019. He has allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .253 average with a .396 slugging percentage and a .316 wOBA. Regardless of the matchup, it’s going to be difficult to avoid Harper at his current price tag tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
