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Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Miles Mikolas
I recommended Miles Mikolas in his last start in a nearly identical situation. He faced off against the Miami Marlins with a $7.2K price tag in Miami. He scored only 3.9 DK points in that game, and his price has dropped $800. He’s now throwing in St. Louis against the same Miami team. Mikolas has been a significantly better pitcher at home, where he owns a 3-3 record with a 2.87 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP through seven starts. He also owns a 3.70 FIP, 4.04 xFIP, and 19.6% strikeout rate in St. Louis this season. Furthermore, his HR/FB rate drops from 31% on the road to 11.9% at home. The same can be said for his hard hit rate which lowers from 41.7% to 34.3%. Miami currently ranks third on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking second last in team wOBA. The Cardinals are -203 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs tonight, giving Miami an implied run total of only 3.5. Mikolas burned me in his last start, but going back to the well only makes sense tonight. Here’s to hoping others aren’t as forgiving as I am.
Jason’s Reaction: Throwing a little shade at yourself in the very first recommendation today? I like it. Mikolas is the best value recommendation on DraftKings tonight.
Jason’s Pick: Kenta Maeda
There are only a few pitchers on the board tonight with strikeout predictions higher than that of Kenta Maeda, which currently sits at 6.3. All of those pitchers are facing opponents with implied run totals of 4.0 or higher. Maeda, on the other hand, squares off against the San Francisco Giants, and he gets to pitch at home in Los Angeles. The total runs for this game are set at 8.5 via Vegas, and the Dodgers are -240 favorites, giving the Giants an implied run total of only 3.3. Maeda is going to be one of the more highly-owned pitchers on the slate tonight, but he is still worth considering in tournaments, especially with the ‘high-upside’ pitchers throwing against teams like the Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners, and Boston Red Sox. If no one is able to make it out unscathed, Maeda skyrockets to the top of the leaderboard. He is also very close to a must-play in cash games.
Justin’s Reaction: If I’m paying up for a pitcher, it will likely be Maeda tonight.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Max Muncy
Since I’m looking at salary relief pitchers tonight, I can spend up elsewhere. Max Muncy has been playing at a high level recently, posting a .314 average with a .686 slugging percentage and a 1.140 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns five extra-base hits (four home runs) and eight RBIs. Muncy owns 59% hard hit and 48% fly ball rates with a ridiculous 100 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He gets an elite matchup against Tyler Beede, and Muncy owns 0.019 wOBA and 0.017 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. Beede has struggled with a 23.8% HR/FB rate in 2019, while also allowing a 39.1% hard hit rate this season. Muncy is one of multiple Dodgers who has been better at home this season, and there’s very little reason to believe Beede will find success in this matchup. The Los Angeles Dodgers make one of the best stacking options on this slate, as you can see from the rest of this article.
Jason’s Reaction: Muncy in a positive matchup against Beede is tough to ignore, especially with his 0.077 HR/AB ratio. He is expensive, but getting a first base eligible player at second base is worth the salary.
Jason’s Pick: Paul Goldschmidt
Speaking of first base eligible players, Paul Goldschmidt is only $3.9K on DraftKings tonight. Elieser Hernandez is set to take the mound for the Miami Marlins, and Vegas is predicting just under five runs for the St. Louis Cardinals. Goldschmidt is expected to hit third in the batting order, and he has positive power splits against right-handed pitching. The former All-Star will enter tonight’s game with 0.044 ISO and 0.039 wOBA differentials. In the last 15 days, his advanced metrics have been solid (excluding his high ground ball rate), as he has an average batted ball distance of 222 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate of 35%, and a hard hit rate just under 60%. Those batted balls are going to start finding holes in the defense. Goldschmidt is ready to turn it up a notch, and his price tag does not yet indicate that. He can be rostered in all leagues.
Justin’s Reaction: I rode Goldschmidt to 22 DK points yesterday, and I have no problems using him again tonight. Strong recommendation.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Cody Bellinger
Cody Bellinger is another player who has looked elite at home, where he owns a .397 average with a .786 slugging percentage and a 1.272 OPS through 35 games. He owns 19 extra-base hits (15 home runs), 33 RBIs, and 6 stolen bases in those games. He’ll benefit from the matchup against Tyler Beede, who has been outlined above. Bellinger enters this game with 0.084 wOBA and 0.09 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. His numbers have been far from elite over his last 10 games, but he still owns three extra-base hits, four RBIs, and one stolen base over that span. Furthermore, Bellinger could be in line for a breakout, as he has posted 57% hard hit and 39% fly ball rates with a 96 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. The Los Angeles Dodgers aren’t a cheap stacking option, but there are more than enough salary relief options to make it a relatively easy stack to obtain tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: I agree; Bellinger could be in line for a home run tonight, and who is better at predicting home runs than me? I mean, seriously, read my other article… please…
Jason’s Pick: Mike Trout
Since we are recommending higher-priced outfielder options today, Mike Trout seems rather appropriate. Yes, his price tag is ridiculously high. Yes, he is worth it. Over the last 15 days, in which he has played 13 games, Mike Trout has an insane average batted ball distance of 254 feet, an exit velocity on those batted balls of 94 MPH, a fly ball rate of 50%, and a hard hit rate over 50%. That has translated to 4 home runs, 7 RBIs, and 8 walks over his last 10 games. All of that is despite a poor .235 batting average. His season-long batting average is .285, he is in search of home run number 20 tonight, and he has 46 RBIs on the season, as well. In 3 games against the Toronto Blue Jays this season, Trout is hitting .364 with 1 home run and 4 RBIs, as well as scoring 12.3 fantasy points per game. As a final added bonus, he has 0.11 ISO and 0.08 wOBA differentials entering tonight’s contest against the right-handed Edwin Jackson. There is no reason to avoid him, especially in cash games, as long as the salary relief options are enough to make the salary space available.
Justin’s Reaction: I agree that Trout is an elite option. It also won’t be difficult to get him into your lineups tonight.
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