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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Los Angeles Angels
The Los Angeles Angels have dealt with injuries throughout the season, but they have still found plenty of success. Through 72 games, they rank 11th in the MLB in runs scored and team batting average, 13th in home runs, and 14th in OPS. Los Angeles has been better at home, but they are still hitting .256 with a .411 slugging percentage and a .743 OPS through 35 road games. They are also averaging 4.9 runs and 3.0 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Tonight, the Angels are -148 favorites in a game set at 11 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.1 runs.
Los Angeles gets an elite matchup against Edwin Jackson tonight. He has struggled through six games (five starts), posting a 1-4 record with a 10.22 ERA and a 2.03 WHIP. He also owns a 5.93 xFIP and a 5.43 SIERA through 24.2 innings. Jackson has allowed 37% fly ball and 26.5% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has given up a 41.9% hard hit rate to go along with an 11.8% soft hit rate in 2019, as well. His strikeout rate sits at only 13.9% to go along with an 8.7% swinging strike rate. Jackson has been at his worst against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .417 average with a .933 slugging percentage and a .564 wOBA. He has also allowed lefties to hit for a .300/.500/.366 line in 2019. Furthermore, Jackson has struggled at home, where he has given up a .357/.768/.479 line through 12.1 innings. Los Angeles features an offense that is finally healthy, and they come with tremendous power and upside to go along with plenty of consistency. I don’t necessarily believe there will be one “Chalk Stack” on this slate, but the Angels make up the safest stack tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers have found plenty of offensive success this season, ranking 10th in the MLB in runs scored, seventh in home runs and team batting average, and third in OPS. The Dodgers have also been at their best at home, where they own a .278 average with a .499 slugging percentage and a .855 OPS. They are averaging 5.5 runs and 3.5 extra-base hits per game at home. Los Angeles is a -233 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs tonight, and they feature an implied run total of 5.3 runs.
The Dodgers get a matchup against Tyler Beede, who has struggled through six games (four starts) this season. Overall, he owns an 0-2 record with an 8.06 ERA and a 2.06 WHIP. He has also posted a 5.09 xFIP and a 5.21 SIERA this season. Beede has held his opponents to a 30.4% fly ball rate, but he has struggled with a 23.8% HR/FB rate. He has also allowed a 39.1% hard hit rate to go along with an 18.8% soft hit rate. He also enters this game with 23% strikeout and 12% swinging strike rates. Beede has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .382 average with a .735 slugging percentage and a .472 wOBA. He has also given up a .313/.578/.414 line on the road this season. The Dodgers are a stack that will likely feature a bit of ownership on this slate. They feature one of the highest upside offenses in the MLB, though, and this is an elite situation in a plus matchup at home for them.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Washington Nationals
The Washington Nationals have featured an average offense this season, ranking 15th in the MLB in runs, team batting average, and OPS, while also ranking 14th in the league in home runs. They have been a better offense at home, posting a .262 average with a .452 slugging percentage and a .786 OPS through 34 home games. The Nationals are averaging 5.0 runs and 3.4 extra-base hits per game in Washington. They are -141 favorites in a game set at 10 runs, and they own an implied run total of 5.5 runs tonight.
Jake Arrieta will be taking the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies. He enters this game with a 6-5 record, 4.31 ERA, and 1.45 WHIP through 14 starts. He has also struggled with a 4.49 xFIP and a 4.87 SIERA in those starts. Arrieta has held his opponents to a 27.1% fly ball rate, although he has allowed a 20% HR/FB rate. He has also given up a 38.3% hard hit rate, while holding his opponents to only a 17.2% soft hit rate. He has been significantly worse against left-handed batters this season, allowing them to hit for a .293 average with a .531 slugging percentage and a .380 wOBA. He has also struggled on the road, where he has allowed a .297/.527/.367 line this season. Furthermore, Arrieta’s HR/FB rate has jumped to 28.6% on the road in 2019. The Nationals come with quite a bit of risk, but they’re likely going to go overlooked because of the matchup. They feature one of the highest implied run totals on the slate, and they make up an elite stacking option in tournaments tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Miles Mikolas
Mikolas has seen plenty of ups and downs through the 2019 season, posting a 4-7 record with a 4.83 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP through 14 starts. He also owns a 4.21 xFIP and a 4.43 SIERA this season. He has held his opponents to a 29% fly ball rate, although he has allowed a 19.7% HR/FB rate. He has also given up a 37.8% hard hit rate, while recording an 18.1% soft hit rate. His strikeout rate sits at only 17.5% to go along with a 9.2% swinging strike rate. Mikolas has been at his best at home, though, where he has posted a 4.06 xFIP with 11.9% HR/FB and 19.6% strikeout rates. Tonight, he’s a -201 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 3.3 runs.
Mikolas gets a plus matchup against the Miami Marlins, who rank third on this slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking second last in team wOBA. Mikolas has been at his best against right-handed batters, holding them to a .241 average with a .425 slugging percentage and a .283 wOBA. He has also held his opponents to a .204/.353/.256 line at home this season. While he’s coming off of a terrible game against this same Marlins team, Mikolas will now be pitching in St. Louis, and his price tag has dropped quite a bit. He’s a great option in all leagues tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Cavan Biggio
Four games ago, I stated that Biggio has more power than he has displayed thus far in the MLB. Since then, he has posted two doubles and two home runs. Overa,, he’s hitting .200 with a .429 slugging percentage and a .777 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns four extra-base hits (two home runs), five RBIs, and one stolen base over that span. Overall, he has scored fantasy points in 9 of those 10 games, including a pair of games with double-digit fantasy points. Biggio also enters this game with 0.038 wOBA and 0.275 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Luis Garcia is expected to work as the opener for the Los Angeles Angels before making way for Felix Pena. The latter has struggled at times this season, posting a 4.22 xFIP and a 3.86 SIERA through 13 games (4 starts). He has allowed 36.3% fly ball and 17.5% HR/FB rates in 2019. Pena has also given up a 39.2% hard hit rate, while recording only a 10.1% soft hit rate this season. He has also allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .266 average with a .495 slugging percentage and a .355 wOBA. Biggio is expected to lead off for the Toronto Blue Jays, and he makes an outstanding option for a low price tag.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
