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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies feature one of the better offenses in the MLB. Through 67 games, they rank sixth in the league in runs scored, 19th in home runs, fifth in team batting average, and 13th in OPS. Colorado has been at their best at home, where they own an elite .299 average with a .519 slugging percentage and a .887 OPS through 33 home games. They are averaging 6.2 runs and 4.2 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Rockies are -147 favorites in a game set at 11 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.4 runs.
Colorado gets a matchup against Matt Strahm, who has seen mixed results through 11 starts this season. He owns a 2-5 record with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. He has also posted a 4.45 xFIP and a 4.15 SIERA in 2019. Strahm has allowed a 42.3% fly ball rate, while recording a 13.5% HR/FB rate this season. He has given up a 47.2% hard hit rate to his opponents, as well, to go along with an 18.9% soft hit rate. He enters this game with 22.2% strikeout and 10% swinging strike rates in 2019. Surprisingly, Strahm has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .353 average with a .510 slugging percentage and a .399 wOBA. He has also allowed righties to hit for a .225/.423/.289 line, though. His inability to control his opponents power will play a major role in the game tonight, as players power is emphasized in Colorado. The Rockies aren’t going to come cheap, but they make up the safest stacking option on this slate, and they come with as much upside as any offense tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
New York Yankees
The New York Yankees have looked outstanding offensively this season. They currently rank seventh in the MLB in runs scored and OPS, sixth in home runs, and ninth in team batting average through 66 games. Surprisingly, the Yankees have been better on the road this season, where they boast a .263 average with a .465 slugging percentage and a .807 OPS. They are averaging 6.0 runs and 3.6 extra-base hits per game through 31 road games. New York is a -177 favorite in a game set at 10 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 5.8 runs tonight.
The Yankees get a plus matchup against Ivan Nova, who has posted a 3-5 record with a 6.28 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP through 13 starts. He has also struggled with a 4.63 xFIP and a 4.92 SIERA this season. He has only allowed a 27.3% fly ball rate, while giving up a 19.4% HR/FB rate in 2019. He boasts 34.5% hard hit and 20.9% soft hit rates this season, as well. He also brings a low 14.4% strikeout rate with an 8.4% swinging strike rate into this game. Nova has struggled most against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .358 average with a .574 slugging percentage and a .407 wOBA. He has allowed a .302/.488/.357 line to right-handed batters this season, as well. Furthermore, Nova has allowed his opponents to post a .367/.643/.435 line at home in 2019. The wind is blowing out to left field around 8 MPH at the moment, and this will only help the bats of the Yankees. They can be considered as another “Chalk Stack” if you want to get off of Colorado in cash games, as they come with elite upside in this matchup, and should find plenty of consistency, as well.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers have seen a few ups and downs this season, and they currently rank ninth in the MLB in runs scored, eighth in home runs, and third in team batting average and OPS. They have been playing at an elite level in Los Angeles, where they own a .283 average with a .502 slugging percentage and a .862 OPS. They are also averaging 5.7 runs and 3.5 extra-base hits per game in those contests. The Dodgers are -167 favorites in a game set at only 8 runs tonight. They own an implied run total of 4.6 runs on this slate.
Jon Lester will be taking the mound for the Chicago Cubs tonight. He has performed well through 12 starts this season, recording a 5-4 record to go along with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. He also owns a 4.27 xFIP and a 4.20 SIERA, though. On the season, he has allowed 36.9% fly ball and 12.3% HR/FB rates. Lester has also given up a 40% hard hit rate, while recording only a 15% hard hit rate in 2019. His strikeout rate sits at 22.1%, although he only owns an 8.1% swinging strike rate this season. Lester’s xFIP has also ballooned to 5.09 on the road this year. He has allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .292 average with a .403 slugging percentage and a .319 wOBA, while righties have posted a .257/.444/.316 line against him this season. His road struggles will likely continue against a high upside offense tonight, and the Dodgers will potentially go overlooked because of their lack of an elite Vegas line.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Jack Flaherty
Flaherty has seen mixed results this season, posting a 4-3 record with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP through 13 starts. He also boasts a 3.97 xFIP and a 4.09 SIERA this season. He has allowed 36.7% fly ball and 18.2% HR/FB rates in 2019, as well. His opponents have posted a 40.9% hard hit rate against him, while he has recorded a strong 22.6% soft hit rate. His strikeout rate also sits at 25.7% to go along with a 12% swinging strike rate. The biggest concern for Flaherty is that his xFIP increases to 4.90 on the road, while his strikeout rate has dipped to 21.7% in those games. Still, he’s a +136 underdog in a game set at only 6.5 runs, and his opponents feature an implied run total of only 3.6 runs tonight.
Flaherty gets a plus matchup against the New York Mets, who don’t strikeout at an overly high rate, but also have struggled quite a bit offensively this season. Flaherty has been at his best against right-handed bats in 2019, holding them to a .205 average with a .339 slugging percentage and a .265 wOBA. He has played a few difficult road games this season, which may have his numbers a bit skewed, and this is a plus matchup, even on the road. For his low price tag, he can be considered in all leagues tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Cavan Biggio
Biggio has been struggling a bit recently, posting a .107 average with a .107 slugging percentage and a .449 OPS over his last 10 games. He doesn’t own any extra-base hits over that span, although he was able to post one RBI with two stolen bases. His limited sample size doesn’t tell the whole story, though, as Biggio boasted a .312 average with a .514 slugging percentage and a .963 OPS through 43 Triple-A games this season. He has also been at his best against right-handed pitching, as he owns 0.044 wOBA and 0.107 ISO differentials against righties
Biggio gets a plus matchup against Gabriel Ynoa, who has struggled with an 0-2 record, 4.96 ERA, and 1.44 WHIP through 12 games (3 starts) this season. He has also posted a 4.54 xFIP and a 4.47 SIERA. Ynoa has struggled with 33% fly ball and 17.6% HR/FB rates in 2019, as well. He’s allowing his opponents to record a 35.6% hard hit rate against him, while posting a 16.3% soft hit rate. Biggio is expected to lead off for the Toronto Blue Jays, and he has found ways to stay consistent. He owns added power that he has not displayed yet, and he’s a great buy low option on this slate.
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