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Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Michael Wacha
Michael Wacha has struggled early this season, posting a 3-2 record with a 6.30 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP through 11 games (9 starts). He is due for positive regression, though, as he also owns a 5.06 xFIP and a 5.34 SIERA. The majority of his struggles came in three games, as his ERA drops to 4.21 when you exclude those games. Wacha has held his opponents to a 32.7% fly ball rate, but he has struggled with a 24% HR/FB rate. He has also allowed a 41.9% hard hit rate, while recording only an 11.6% soft hit rate. Wacha’s strikeout rate sits at 20.4% to go along with an 8.4% swinging strike rate. Most importantly, he gets an elite matchup against the Miami Marlins in one of the most pitcher-friendly stadiums in the MLB. Miami currently ranks second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking second last in team wOBA. Wacha is currently a -137 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 3.7 runs. You’re going to need to find spots to spend down with Chris Sale and the Colorado Rockies in Coors Field on this slate, and Wacha is the perfect pairing for an SP2.
Jason’s Reaction: Michael Wacha makes a lot of sense in tournaments. I lean more toward Jerad Eickhoff due to his higher strikeout potential, but Wacha is significantly cheaper. Nice recommendation.
Jason’s Pick: Chris Sale
Chris Sale is the best pitching option on the board tonight, and I think that Justin realizes this. He is recommending Michael Wacha with the assumption that Sale will be the second pitcher into those lineups. The Texas Rangers are travelling into Boston for tonight’s game, and Vegas has this game set at a lowly 7.5 total runs. The Red Sox are -235 betting favorites, giving the Rangers an implied run total of 2.9. It will be under 70 degrees, so the weather will benefit pitchers, and Sale has a strikeout prediction almost in the double digits. With a K/9 over 13, it makes sense. The Rangers tend to be a dangerous offense at home, but struggle on the road. Sale is unavoidable in cash games, and he will most likely be part of the optimal lineup in tournaments, as well. If constructing various lineups, it would be wise to avoid him in a couple, though, as he should be very highly owned.
Justin’s Reaction: Sale is the top pitcher on this slate, and he’s a must in cash games at this point.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Yoan Moncada
Yoan Moncada has been one of the hottest hitters in the MLB recently, posting a .381 batting average with a .643 slugging percentage and a 1.078 OPS over his last 10 games. He also owns five extra-base hits (three home runs) and seven RBIs in those games. Furthermore, Moncada comes with stolen base upside that he hasn’t flashed recently. Over the last 15 days, he has posted 43% hard hit and 37% fly ball rates with a 95 MPH exit velocity, as well. Moncada gets an elite matchup against Anibal Sanchez, and he brings 0.065 wOBA and 0.121 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game. While Sanchez has been heating up recently, I’m not concerned in the slightest with this matchup. Moncada is expected to hit second in the Chicago White Sox’s lineup, and he has been playing well enough to be used in all leagues.
Jason’s Reaction: I absolutely love Yoan Moncada tonight. As an added bonus, grab his over 1.5 hits and walks prop on Monkey Knife Fight.
Jason’s Pick: Max Muncy
Max Muncy is expected to hit second in the Los Angeles Dodgers’ batting order tonight, and his price tag is very reasonable. He has double-position eligibility, so roster him at first base or third base. He enters tonight’s game with 0.015 ISO and 0.020 wOBA differentials, which helps his upside. The Dodgers are expected to score over five runs, and Muncy should be a part of that. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 227 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 94 MPH, a fly ball rate just under 40%, and a hard hit rate over 40%. He can be rostered in both tournaments and cash games.
Justin’s Reaction: Muncy always makes a great option, and tonight is no different. He can be considered in all leagues tonight.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber was given a price bump, but because of playing in Coors Field tonight rather than because of his recent hot streak. In other words, he’s far too cheap for his upside in Colorado. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting .316 with a .632 slugging percentage and a 1.027 OPS. He has recorded six extra-base hits (three home runs), seven RBIs, and one stolen base over that span. Schwarber also enters this game with 44% hard hit and 38% fly ball rates to go along with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He gets a tough matchup against German Marquez, but Schwarber owns 0.038 wOBA and 0.072 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. He’s leading off for the Chicago Cubs, and he makes an elite option in all leagues tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: I’m getting a little sick of seeing Kyle Schwarber’s name in every single article I read, but I’m not getting sick of him constantly hitting value. Continue to use him until DraftKings pulls their collective heads out of their … the ground.
Jason’s Pick: Carlos Gonzalez
It should be rather easy to roster Chris Sale with the amount of value available on tonight’s MLB slate. The most valuable player is Carlos Gonzalez. He is expected to hit fifth for the Chicago Cubs, and he is travelling to Coors Field. His price tag is too low, even if he didn’t get the Coors’ bump. Entering tonight’s game with 0.018 ISO and 0.038 wOBA differentials against right-handed pitching, Gonzalez might finally break out. Like Justin mentioned, German Marquez is a tough matchup, but the value is too much to pass on. Gonzalez is having a horrible year, but he has enough power to find a home run. He should see ample RBI opportunities, and he only needs one hit to reach value. Roster him in all leagues.
Justin’s Reaction: CarGo makes a great option on this slate. Going Sale and Coors in cash is smart, and Gonzalez is the easiest way to make that happen.
Be sure to follow Justin (@BalesSJustin) and Jason (@BalesTJason) on Twitter!
