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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies have found plenty of offensive success in the MLB this season, ranking eighth in the league in runs scored, 20th in home runs, fifth in team batting average, and 13th in OPS. Colorado has looked elite at home, where they are hitting .298 with a .523 slugging percentage and an .891 OPS through 30 games. They are also averaging 6.3 runs and 4.4 extra-base hits per game in those contests. The Rockies are currently -126 favorites in a game set at 11 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.9 runs tonight.
Colorado gets a matchup against Yu Darvish, who has seen mixed results through 13 starts. He enters this game with a 2-3 record, 4.88 ERA, and 1.52 WHIP. He has posted a 4.38 xFIP and a 4.82 SIERA in those starts, as well. Darvish has held his opponents to a 29.3% fly ball rate in 2019, but he has also allowed a 22.4% HR/FB rate this season. He has allowed a 31.8% hard hit rate to go along with a 19.4% soft hit rate this year, as well. Darvish brings 26.4% strikeout and 12.9% swinging strike rates into this game. He has been at his worst against left-handed batters this season, allowing them to hit for a .261 average with a .478 slugging percentage and a .353 wOBA. Darvish has held his opponents to a .200/.324/.305 line in 2019, but he will be throwing in the most hitter friendly stadium in the MLB. The Rockies have found success against elite level pitching at home, and is far from a high-end pitcher in the MLB. There are more than enough salary relief options to stack Colorado in cash games on this slate.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
New York Yankees
The New York Yankees are another strong offense, who rank ninth in the MLB in runs scored, fifth in home runs, 12th in team batting average, eighth in OPS through 64 games. Surprisingly, the Yankees have struggled at home this season, where they are hitting for a .248 average with a .426 slugging percentage and a .746 OPS through 33 games. They are averaging 4.6 runs and 2.7 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. They get an elite matchup tonight, though, and they are -183 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs. New York features an implied run total of 5.6 runs tonight.
The Yankees get a great matchup against Jason Vargas tonight. Through 10 games (9 starts), he owns a 2-3 record with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. He is due for regression, as he also brings a 4.99 xFIP and a 5.05 SIERA into this game. Vargas has allowed a 38.3% fly ball rate this season, although he has held his opponents to a 9.8% HR/FB rate. He has also given up a 40.1% hard hit rate this season, while recording only a 16.8% soft hit rate in 2019. Vargas enters this game with 19.1% strikeout and 7.4% swinging strike rates. He has been at his worst against left-handed batters in 2019, allowing them to hit for a .255 average with a .447 slugging percentage and a .329 wOBA. He has also allowed his opponents to hit for a .278/.506/.361 line on the road this season. Vargas will be throwing in one of the more hitter friendly stadiums in the MLB, and the Yankees feature as much upside as any stack on this slate.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves have seen mixed results this season, as they currently rank 14th in the MLB in runs scored, home runs, and OPS, while also ranking 10th in team batting average. They have performed better at home this season, where they own a .260 average with a .452 slugging percentage and a .791 OPS. The Braves are also averaging 5.1 runs and 3.3 extra-base hits per game through 31 games in Atlanta this season. They are -138 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs tonight, and they own an implied run total of 5.2 runs.
Joe Musgrove will be taking the mound for the Pittsburgh Pirates. He has struggled through 13 games (12 starts), posting a 4-6 record with a 4.44 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. He owns a 4.58 xFIP and a 4.64 SIERA this season. Musgrove has surprisingly held his opponents to 35.1% fly ball and 9% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has given up a 37.5% hard hit rate this season, while recording only a 17% soft hit rate. He has struggled against left-handed batters in 2019, allowing them to hit for a .284 average with a .496 slugging percentage and a .343 wOBA. Musgrove has thrown surprisingly well on the road, and Atlanta has a few high upside left-handed batters throughout their lineup. They are likely to go overlooked because of some better spots (New York, Colorado), but Atlanta comes with tremendous upside tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Michael Wacha
Wacha has struggled quite a bit this season, but he has also flashed plenty of upside. Through 11 games (9 starts), he owns a 3-2 record with a 6.30 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP. He also enters this game with a 5.06 xFIP and a 5.34 SIERA. He has held his opponents to a 32.7% fly ball rate, although he has struggled with a 24% HR/FB rate in 2019. He has allowed a 41.9% hard hit rate, while recording only an 11.6% soft hit rate, as well. Wacha’s strikeout rate sits at 20.4% to go along with an 8.4% swinging strike rate. He gets a plus matchup tonight, though, and he’s a -137 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs. His opponents feature an implied run total of only 4.6 runs tonight.
Wacha gets a matchup against the Miami Marlins, who rank fifth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat and in the bottom-seven in team wOBA. They also aren’t a powerful enough lineup to expose Wacha’s home run flaws. Surprisingly, Wacha has been better against left-handed batters this season, holding them to a .250 average with a .425 slugging percentage and a .326 wOBA. While I don’t believe Wacha is a great pitcher, he is cheap enough to be considered in all leagues in this matchup tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Carlos Gonzalez
Gonzalez’s numbers don’t jump off the page, as he’s only hitting .129 with a .258 slugging percentage and a .533 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns two extra-base hits and four RBIs in those games, as well. Gonzalez has posted 55% hard hit and 44% fly ball rates to go along with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Furthermore, he enters this game with 0.038 wOBA and 0.018 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Gonzalez gets a tough matchup against German Marquez, who has thrown well this season. He owns a 3.43 xFIP and a 3.65 SIERA through 14 starts. He has also held his opponents to a 27% fly ball rate to go along with a 14.5% HR/FB rate this season. Marquez has given up a 38% hard hit rate, while posting only a 13.3% soft hit rate in 2019, as well. He has performed well against left-handed batters, holding them to a .235 average with a .355 slugging percentage and a .279 wOBA. Still, Gonzalez is expected to hit fifth in the Chicago Cubs lineup, and he is entirely too cheap for playing in Coors. He’s an elite option in all leagues.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
