Pitchers
Chris Sale- I will start this off with saying…I am worried for Chris Sale. Not so much worried about him tonight, but I am concerned about his elbow with the amount of sliders he is throwing. Regardless, the massive increase in slider usage has enabled him to get strikeouts even with a dip in velocity, and he checks in as the highest-upside play on this slate over Clayton Kershaw. Both Kershaw and Boyd have tough matchups in terms of strikeout upside, and I will be locking Sale in as my SP1 on DraftKings on Wednesday evening.
Tyler Skaggs- When picking out an SP2 alongside Sale, we have two options in my opinion, Tyler Skaggs against the Tigers and Kyle Hendricks against the Marlins. I wish that we had one of my brand pitchers on this slate over Skaggs, because I would definitely be interested in pivoting to the lower owned player in my cash games tonight. Skaggs, however, is far from my brand with only around 23.0% strikeouts and over 43.0% hard hits allowed this season. He could see a boost in strikeouts tonight against a K-heavy Tigers offense, but overall I see this as a GPP play only despite my concerns with chalk Hendricks.
Kyle Hendricks- I cannot tell you how much this pains me to type, but we might be forced to play Kyle Hendricks in cash games tonight. I think Hendricks is a solid real-life pitcher, but his limited strikeout ability rarely makes him a priority for me in daily fantasy. Tonight might be an exception, however, at home (where he has been dominant this season) against a Marlins offense that strikes out the second-most in the MLB against right-handed pitching. I 100% will be underweight on him in tournaments, but at expected massive ownership, it might be smart to bite the bullet in cash games.
NOTE: After really thinking hard about game theory, I am going to make a huge pivot and trust my gut. I will not be rostering chalk Kyle Hendricks, and I will be locking in Kyle Gibson for less alongside Sale.
Tournament Pool: Clayton Kershaw, Matt Boyd, Kyle Gibson
Building Blocks
Joc Pederson- We get a perfect storm spot for Pederson tonight against a pitcher who has struggled with left-handed batters throughout his career. Mike Foltynewicz has allowed over 43.0% fly balls to opposing left-handed batters dating back to his first MLB start, which matches up well with Pederson’s career .259 ISO, 40.0% hard-contact and 40.0% fly balls. He also matches up with Folty’s pitch mix, owning a .400+ xwOBA against the fastball, slider and sinker, his three most used pitches against left-handed batters.
Ryan O’Hearn- I love this as a cheap play in all formats tonight, and I’m expecting readers of this article to get him at extremely low ownership. Brad Peacock has not been the same pitcher this season, and in a limited 2019 sample he is allowing over 40.0% hard hits and a .300 ISO to left-handed batters with oover 10.0% less strikeouts to the split. He throws mainly fastball/slider to lefties, both pitches that O’Hearn has excelled against this season and let’s not forget the .393 ISO that he put up in his first big league season in 2018.
Stacks
1. Dodgers- Even when factoring in the chalk stacks tonight, the Dodgers come out as number one for me. They match up with Mike Foltynewicz, who whether it’s a result of limited work after returning from injury, or something is actually wrong, has seen over a 2MPH drop in velocity this season. His strikeout numbers have plummeted, and his biggest weakness has always been fly balls + hard-contact to left-handed batters…which the Dodgers happen to have a ton of. I think, with the velo drop, we can include righties like Justin Turner, but Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson, Corey Seager and Max Muncy should headline your stack.
2. Twins- I’ve written up the Twins a few times this season, and I’m going back to them tonight against Trent Thornton. Thornton has shown good strikeout stuff for the Jays this season, but he is allowing well-above average fly balls (44.0%) which could cause problems against a powerful Twins offense that doesn’t strike out a lot. All of Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler have power, and I will look to them alongside the Dodgers as my next favorite tournament stack tonight.
Chalk Stacks: Astros, Red Sox
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
