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Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Kyle Hendricks
Kyle Hendricks has seen plenty of ups and downs early this season, posting a 2-4 record with a 3.93 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP through six starts. Those numbers are relatively on par with his 4.11 xFIP and 4.47 SIERA, as well. Hendricks has held his opponents to only 31.5% fly ball and 8.8% HR/FB rates this season, limiting their power. He has also allowed a 38.9% hard hit rate, which is more than 10% higher than his career average, and he’ll likely see positive regression shortly. Unfortunately, Hendricks strikeout rate sits at only 18.1%, while his swinging strike rate has dropped to 7.8% in 2019. Luckily, he gets a matchup against the Miami Marlins, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking second last in team wOBA. Hendricks has found other ways to score fantasy points, as he has posted 32.9 and 38.8 fantasy points in his last two home starts. His elite control allows him to pitch deep into games, and there’s little reason to believe he won’t find success against a weak Miami offense. Hendricks is a -222 favorite in a game set at only 7.5 runs, and he makes an elite option on this slate.
Jason’s Reaction: I love picking on the Miami Marlins, and Hendricks is a pitcher that makes a lot of sense in both cash games and tournaments.
Jason’s Pick: Chris Sale
Tonight, pay up for Chris Sale. He is sporting a 13.3 SO/9 rate, and almost 50% of his starts this season have been quality. His WHIP is under one, and so are his home runs allowed per nine innings pitched. The Baltimore Orioles are not one of the more strikeout prone teams in the league, but Sale still has the highest strikeout prediction of any pitcher on the slate. On top of that, the Boston Red Sox are set at -281 to win this game via Vegas, and the O/U is set at 8.5 runs, which anticipates an implied run total of only 3.1 runs for the Orioles. The weather is decent at best in Baltimore right now, and it will not be above 70 degrees for tonight’s game. There is no reason to get into advanced statistics on this recommendation. Sale is a clear-cut option in both cash games and tournaments.
Justin’s Reaction: I like Sale tonight, but I’d probably lean Clayton Kershaw here.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Justin Turner
What in the world is DraftKings doing with Justin Turner? Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting .415 with a .756 slugging percentage and a 1.211 OPS. He owns six extra-base hits (four home runs) and eight RBIs over that span. Even without his three home run game last night, Turner was a consistent option, who flashed tremendous upside. Furthermore, he has posted 48% hard hit and 46% fly ball rates with a 98 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Turner is slashing a .345/.545/.949 line at home this season, as well. He gets somewhat of a tough matchup against Mike Foltynewicz, as Turner has been at his best against left-handed pitching. Still, he’s expected to hit third in a dominant offense, and his metrics line up well. The only reason to avoid him tonight is to pay up for Nolan Arenado or Alex Bregman, and that’s because Kris Bryant can be used in the outfield. Anyone else at third base tonight would be a mistake.
Jason’s Reaction: Lock and load Turner into all lineups.
Jason’s Pick: Trevor Story
The Colorado Rockies make for an interesting stack tonight, but it will be difficult to do that and roster Chris Sale, so this is more of a tournament recommendation. Trevor Story is extremely expensive, but he is far and away the best option on tonight’s slate at the shortstop position. He is expected to hit second for the Rockies, and with the left-handed Derek Holland on the mound for the San Francisco Giants, Story sports 0.064 ISO and 0.067 wOBA differentials. The Rockies are expected to score over five runs. Over the last 15 days, Story has an average batted ball distance of 249 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 94 MPH, a fly ball rate approaching 50%, and a hard hit rate around the same. He is definitely on the home run radar right now. If he fits, roster him. It is that simple.
Justin’s Reaction: If I can’t get Nolan Arenado in my lineups, which I likely can’t with Turner at third, I’m plugging Story into them. He owes me after posting 0 last night anyway.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Mac Williamson
I played Mac Williamson in his first start of the season last night, and I was rewarded with 27 fantasy points. I’m going back to the well tonight. Truthfully, this play is simple. He’s $3.4K while playing in Colorado. I’ll take the discount to get a piece of this game. In 23 Triple-A games this season, Williamson posted a .378 average with a .756 slugging percentage and a 1.215 OPS. He also posted a .487 wOBA and a .378 ISO in those games. This could be the Williamson break out that we have all been waiting for, and he gets a plus matchup against Jon Gray. Gray has allowed a 21.9% HR/FB rate this season, and Williamson is a powerful player. I’m not entirely sold that this is the Williamson breakout people have been waiting for, but I’m willing to take a shot on him for an absurdly low price tag in the most hitter-friendly stadium in the MLB.
Jason’s Reaction: That kind of low price tag in Colorado in always difficult to find. Williamson takes a little bit of weight off the Chris Sale price tag tonight.
Jason’s Pick: Ian Desmond
Ian Desmond is a cheaper option tonight, but he will still carry with him the benefit of hitting in the middle of the Colorado Rockies’ batting order and playing in Coors Field. Desmond will benefit from left-handed Derek Holland taking the mound, just like Trevor Story will, and he enters the game sporting 0.078 ISO and 0.043 wOBA differentials. Over his last 10 games, Desmond has a batting average of .261, which is up from his .198 season average. He also has five extra-base hits and five RBIs. In his last game, he hit two triples and scored 20 fantasy points. That is the kind of upside he possesses tonight, as well. He makes for a great salary relief tournament option, especially if fantasy owners are stacking the Rockies.
Justin’s Reaction: I actually had Desmond written in as my outfield option prior to switching to Williamson. Obviously, I love him.
Be sure to follow Justin (@BalesSJustin) and Jason (@BalesTJason) on Twitter!
