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Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Cole Hamels
I’m not a huge Cole Hamels guy, but it’s difficult to ignore him in this matchup. Through six starts, he owns a 3-0 record with a 3.19 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. Those numbers are expected to stay relatively steady, as well, as he owns a 3.51 xFIP and a 3.77 SIERA in 2019. His HR/FB rate is a bit high at 15.4%, but his fly ball rate sits at only 26% on the season. Hamels’ strikeout rate is also up a bit to 24.3% this year, while his swinging strike rate sits at 10.8%. He gets an elite matchup against the Miami Marlins, who rank third on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking last in team wOBA. In their only matchup this season, Hamels posted 34 fantasy points against them with eight strikeouts over seven shutout innings. The temperature is expected to sit in the mid- to high-40s tonight, while the wind is blowing in at 10 MPH. Hamels is a -275 favorite in a game set at only 7 runs, and there’s no reason to avoid him, specifically in cash games.
Jason’s Reaction: Agreed. Hamels is the best pitching option available tonight in both cash games and tournaments.
Jason’s Pick: Jacob deGrom
Tonight, it will be beneficial to spend up on pitching and roster a lower-priced stack or a few lower-priced one-off batters. As Justin mentioned, Cole Hamels is an elite option, and he can be paired with Jacob deGrom, who gets to pitch in pitcher-friendly San Diego against the strikeout-prone Padres. DeGrom currently owns a 11.5 K/9 and the Padres strikeout 0.283 times per at-bat, which is the second highest of any team playing tonight, only behind the Washington Nationals. His strikeout prediction is 9.6, which tops any other pitching option by 0.9. The run total for deGrom’s game is set at 6.5 runs, and he is a -113 favorite, which suggests the Padres will score 3.1 runs, the third lowest on the slate behind only Gerrit Cole and Cole Hamels. He did struggle a few times this season already, but the stars are aligned tonight. Roster him in both cash games and tournaments.
Justin’s Reaction: I’m a huge deGrom fan, and I have no issues using him tonight.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Justin Turner
DraftKings has been mispricing a few of the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bats for the majority of the season, and tonight is no different. Justin Turner is hitting .282 with two extra-base hits (one home run) and two RBIs over his last 10 games. While those numbers are far from elite, he has scored fantasy points in nine of those games, including a trio of games with double-digit fantasy points. Turner also owns 47% hard hit and fly ball rates to go along with a 98 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days, suggesting he’ll find more power soon. He gets a matchup against Kevin Gausman, who has been extremely hit or miss this season. Turner owns better splits against left-handed pitching in recent years, but he’s hitting .299 with a .466 slugging percentage and an .835 OPS against right-handed pitching throughout his career. He’s expected to hit third in the Dodgers’ lineup, and he’s cheap enough to safely be used in all leagues.
Jason’s Reaction: There isn’t really a good reason to avoid Turner, so fire him up if he fits into the third base position on DraftKings.
Jason’s Pick: Matt Carpenter
Matt Carpenter has been struggling all season, but he finally produced from a fantasy perspective in two consecutive games, both against the Chicago Cubs. On May 4th, he recorded three hits and 20 fantasy points, and on May 5th, he recorded two hits and eight fantasy points. His price tag remains much lower than it should be based on his potential fantasy production value, and he gets a good matchup tonight against the right-handed Vincent Velasquez. Carpenter has a 0.022 ISO differential against right-handed pitching, and over the last 15 days, he has a solid average batted ball distance of 231 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 92 MPH, and a 40% fly ball rate. His hard hit rate is absolutely miserable at 28%, but his recent batted ball luck suggests an uptick soon. He will continue to hit first in the St. Louis Cardinals’ batting order, and the upside is clear. Roster Carpenter in tournaments.
Justin’s Reaction: If you aren’t using Turner tonight, Carpenter is a strong option. Jason is correct, though, as he should only be used in tournaments.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Max Kepler
The Max Kepler breakout has already begun, and if you weren’t on the hype train with us at the beginning of the season, it’s far too late to jump aboard now. Well, you can in terms of fantasy because you can play him any night, but we know you weren’t a true fan. Anyway, he’s hitting .278 with a .694 slugging percentage and a 1.028 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns seven extra-base hits (four home runs) and seven RBIs. He has also posted 42% hard hit and 52% fly ball rates to go along with a 92 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Kepler gets a great matchup against Marcus Stroman, and he has been at his best against right-handed pitching. He enters this game with 0.024 wOBA and 0.045 ISO differentials against righties. Kepler will be leading off for the Minnesota Twins, and he’s a player that will benefit from the move to the Toronto Blue Jays’ hitter-friendly stadium. He’s surprisingly cheap for his recent success, and he can be considered in all leagues tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: Kepler has actually been struggling slightly over his last five or six games, so hopefully, fantasy owners will take a break from rostering him. In tournaments, it might be possible to get Kepler under-owned.
Jason’s Pick: J.D. Martinez
J.D. Martinez gets a good matchup tonight against the Baltimore Orioles and John Means. Means is currently surrendering 1.6 HR/9, and he has yet to have a quality start this season. This game is set at 9.5 runs, and the Boston Red Sox are -157 favorites, which indicates an implied run total of 5.4 runs, which makes sense considering the Red Sox power and Means’ 40% fly ball rate over the last 15 days. Martinez enters tonight’s contest with a 0.029 ISO differential, and over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 221 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 93 MPH, a 37% fly ball rate, and a 45% hard hit rate. He is hitting .331 on the season with four home runs and 18 RBIs. Over his last 10 games, his batting average is steady at .326, but his home runs are zero. The power will return soon. With over 10 fantasy points in three of his last four games, Martinez makes for a solid cash game option, but his true upside makes him much better in tournaments for his high price tag.
Justin’s Reaction: Martinez makes an outstanding option against left-handed pitching. He makes a strong option in all leagues.
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